Latest news with #Stagflation
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
UOB Asset Management anticipates a greater focus on Asian markets in 3Q 2025
SINGAPORE, June 24, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- In its 3Q 2025 Quarterly Investment Strategy to be published this week, UOB Asset Management (UOBAM) highlights the almost equal probability of three US economic scenarios: a US recession, continued growth, and stagflation, that is, slow growth accompanied by persistent inflation. Faced with these near-equal odds, the firm recommends that investors adopt a neutral positioning and regional diversification. This means investors whose portfolios were previously overweight in the US should start to shift their focus to Asia and Europe. Anthony Raza, Head of UOBAM Multi-Asset Strategy, explains, "In 2Q, the news cycle was dominated by President Trump's haphazard trade and tariff policies. All markets wanted to know was which countries would get off more lightly than others." "But in 3Q, attention looks likely to shift to the impact of these policies on the US economy. Everyone is closely watching US inflation and employment data to see if there are any signs of a possible recession. I would say that so far, the data is inconclusive, and could go either way in the coming months." The revaluation of Asian markets has already begun, with Asian markets as a whole up more than 10 percent[1] so far this year, compared to about 2 percent for the US's S&P500 index. Despite concerns about the impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy, there seems to be a lot of investor optimism that Chinese companies will be able to weather this storm. Chong Jiun Yeh, UOBAM's Group CIO, notes, "Asia has a few things going for it. The region has become a lot more self-sustaining, and funds are more likely to rotate within the region rather than leave it altogether, as we are seeing currently with South Korea and China. In addition, many Asian countries have large populations and therefore, a thriving domestic consumption sector that is resilient to trade wars." "Finally, I would point to the softening USD. Asia tends to benefit when the USD is weak, and it is now at a three-year low. We don't think this depreciation is a short-term adjustment. Structural problems in the US such as higher-for-longer inflation and high debt levels have called into question the role of US Treasuries and the dollar as the go-to in any crisis." Read the full Q3 2025 Investment Strategy: About UOB Asset Management UOB Asset Management Ltd (UOBAM) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of United Overseas Bank Limited. Established in 1986, UOBAM has nearly 40 years of experience in managing collective investment schemes and discretionary funds in Singapore, making us among the largest unit trust managers by assets under management. As of 31 May 2025, we manage 62 unit trusts in Singapore and, together with our subsidiaries, oversee S$37.6 billion in client assets. Headquartered in Singapore, UOBAM has a strong presence across Asia, with business and investment offices in Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. Our network includes UOB Islamic Asset Management Sdn Bhd in Malaysia, a joint venture with Ping An Fund Management Company Limited and strategic alliances with partners such as Wellington Management Singapore. UOBAM is one of the region's most awarded asset managers, with over 360 awards won. In 2025, we were recognised as the Best Asset Management Company (Regional) by the Asia Asset Management and previously named Best Asset Management House in Asia – 20 Years in 2023. Our digital innovation has also earned top honours, including Best Digital Wealth Management in Asia[2] and Best Robo Advisory Initiative[3] for 3 consecutive years as of 2024. As a leader in sustainable investing, UOBAM was awarded Best application of ESG in ASEAN[4] (2023) and has received multiple sustainability accolades in Indonesia and Thailand. Our artificial intelligence capabilities were also recognised with the Most Innovative Application of Artificial Intelligence (ASEAN) for 2 consecutive years[5]. Connect with us: LinkedIn | Facebook [1] Performance of the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan, as of 20 June 2025 [2] Awarded by Asia Asset Management [3] Awarded by The Digital Banker for the Global Retail Banking Innovations Award [4] Awarded by Asia Asset Management [5] As of 2025, by Asia Asset Management View original content to download multimedia: SOURCE UOB Asset Management Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CNA
06-06-2025
- Business
- CNA
Stocks on guard for payrolls, Tesla tumbles as Trump-Musk bromance sours
SYDNEY :Asian shares slipped on Friday as investors hunkered down for the all-important U.S. payrolls report, while Tesla suffered huge losses on the very public feud between President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk. A run of soft economic data this week has markets wary of a downside surprise in the monthly payrolls print due later in the day, which would add to fears of stagflation while piling pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease policy in a hurry. Tesla shares bounced 0.8 per cent in after-hours trading after tumbling a whopping 14 per cent overnight to wipe off $150 billion in market value. That came after Trump threatened to cut off government contracts to Elon Musk's companies as the once close relationship turned into a bitter open disagreement. There were signs that tempers may be cooling a bit, with Trump telling Politico that "it's okay" when asked about the relationship and that White House aides had scheduled a call on Friday with Musk to broker a peace. Nasdaq futures rose 0.3 per cent and S&P 500 futures gained 0.4 per cent, while the losses in European stock futures narrowed, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures down just 0.1 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.2 per cent on Friday away from its eight-month peak. It is still set for a weekly rise of 2.1 per cent. Chinese blue chips eased 0.2 per cent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.5 per cent as a call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping offered little clarity to ease ongoing trade tensions. "I think the fact that they are talking, the fact that there is a willingness to find a way through and the channels of communication are open is a positive," said Luke Yeaman, chief economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "But I think it's clear that there are still a lot of tensions in the relationship and that neither side wants to give too much away… There's not a lot of goodwill to work with to fundamentally improve the trade relationship." Most Asian shares are down slightly, but Japan's Nikkei is a rare bright spot in Asia, up 0.4 per cent, helping trim its weekly drop to 0.7 per cent. WAIT FOR PAYROLLS Weaker-than-expected labour market data, including a 47 per cent year-on-year jump in Challenger layoffs and a significant downside surprise in ADP's private payrolls, have dampened expectations for the payrolls report. Forecasts are centred on a rise of 130,000 jobs in May, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2 per cent. Any unexpected weakness could bring the next U.S. rate cut forward and trigger a huge rally in Treasuries. Futures imply scant chances of a rate cut until September, which is about 93 per cent priced in, with another move likely to come in December. Yields on the benchmark ten-year Treasuries were flat at 4.3887 per cent, having risen 3 basis points overnight to bounce away from a one-month low. "We expect payrolls to lose additional momentum in May, printing a below-consensus 110,000," said analysts at TD Securities in a note to clients. "Markets have recently been singularly focused on tariffs and deficits, with macro taking a back seat in recent weeks. Our forecast may not be sufficient to catalyze this revamped focus on macro, but we expect downside surprises to generate a larger market reaction." The dollar was 0.2 per cent higher against its major peers on Friday just a touch above a six-week low as soft economic data dent the U.S. currency. The euro hit a six-week top of $1.1495 overnight after the European Central Bank cut rates but signaled that it was nearing the end of its year-long policy easing cycle. Investors have given up on a move in July, with the final move most likely to come in October or December. In commodities markets, oil prices were slightly lower but were headed for weekly gains on supply concerns. U.S. crude futures slipped 0.4 per cent to $63.12 a barrel but were up 3.8 per cent for the week. In precious metals, gold prices climbed 0.4 per cent to $3,366.78 an ounce. For the week, they are up 2.3 per cent.
Bloomberg
22-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Mike Wilson Says It's Time To Buy the Dip
Get a jump start on the US trading day with Matt Miller, Katie Greifeld and Sonali Basak on "Bloomberg Open Interest." Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson told investors to buy the dip, following Moody's downgrade of US credit. He joined Bloomberg Open Interest with his latest thoughts on equity markets and rates. Meanwhile, President Trump's signature tax bill narrowly passes the House after a dramatic all-night session. And Jamie Dimon's words of warning as he says he can't rule out the US economy entering a period of stagflation. AT&T's deal to buy Lumen's consumer business raises the stakes for cable competition. And it's finally IPO Day for MNTN. The ad firm backed by Ryan Reynolds is set to begin trading today. CEO Mark Douglas joins Bloomberg Open Interest live from the New York Stock Exchange (Source: Bloomberg)
