Latest news with #UBS
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Business
- Yahoo
What do China's surging exports mean for the world?
-- China's recent export surge is creating ripple effects across global trade, with UBS analysts warning of a potential 'second China shock.' According to UBS, 'export volumes [are] up 20%' over the past two years, compared to just 6% growth in the rest of the world, marking China's strongest trade outperformance since joining the World Trade Organization. Much of this growth is being directed toward emerging markets (EM), which now account for over half of China's exports and trade surplus, said the bank. 'That China's share of final demand is rising in sectors ranging from Latam autos to ASEAN household appliances shows that its export penetration runs far deeper than cyclical 'transshipping' effects,' UBS wrote. They add that the quality of Chinese goods is improving, and the country's export momentum continues even as negative price deflators ease. 'This isn't just about low prices… quality is playing an increasingly important role,' UBS noted. While some of China's export strengths are in building new supply chains, such as Hungarian autos and Indonesian mining, UBS cautioned that the broader trend could weigh on other EM economies. 'China's rising export competitiveness may compromise growth in the rest of EM,' the analysts warned, citing weak FDI inflows, declining manufacturing/GDP ratios, and deflationary pressures in sectors like chemicals and household products. UBS sees limited near-term progress in China's efforts to curb overcapacity. Despite higher U.S. tariffs and attempts to boost domestic consumption, 'disinflationary spillovers' are likely to persist. 'These disinflationary spillovers will leave EM central banks with more work to do,' UBS added. The implications for global markets are said to be mixed, with some EM equities potentially benefiting from looser monetary policy, particularly in countries less exposed to Chinese competition. Related articles What do China's surging exports mean for the world? Fed's Bostic says tariffs effects may take a year 'to fully play out' President Trump's views on Japan tariffs may be misinformed, says PM Ishiba
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street Fined in Asia's $3B Money-Laundering Bombshell
Singapore just sent a clear message to the global banking world: money laundering lapses won't go unpunished. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) handed out S$27.5 million (US$21.5 million) in fines to nine financial institutionsincluding some of the world's most powerful banksafter a two-year probe into the country's largest-ever money laundering case. Credit Suisse's Singapore branch took the biggest hit at S$5.8 million, followed by penalties against UBS (NYSE:UBS), Citigroup (NYSE:C), United Overseas Bank, and others. The case, which surfaced in August 2023, saw authorities seize over S$3 billion worth of assets, from luxury condos and supercars to crypto. Ten suspects of Chinese origin were convicted, and two ex-bankers were charged earlier this year. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with UBS. At the heart of the issue: weak anti-money laundering controls. MAS pointed to poor or inconsistent implementation across the firms involved. Four individuals at Blue Ocean Invest were banned from regulated roles for up to six years, while several others received official reprimands. UBS, which absorbed Credit Suisse in 2023, said it fully cooperated with the review. Citi disclosed it has tightened onboarding and monitoring processes, while UOB and its brokerage arm UOB-Kay Hian also moved to close gaps. The regulator said it would monitor progress closely, signaling there's still more work to be done behind the scenes. This could be the biggest compliance reckoning since MAS shut down BSI Bank's local unit in 2016 during the fallout from the 1MDB scandal. While Singapore remains a rising star in global wealth managementassets under management climbed 10% to S$5.41 trillion last yearthe case highlights a tension between growth and governance. Similar crackdowns abroad have cost banks billions, including TD Bank's US$3.1 billion AML settlement last year and Danske Bank's US$2 billion fine in 2022. For investors, the key takeaway is this: as capital flows into Singapore, regulators are under pressure to show they can keep the pipes clean. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street Fined in Asia's $3B Money-Laundering Bombshell
Singapore just sent a clear message to the global banking world: money laundering lapses won't go unpunished. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) handed out S$27.5 million (US$21.5 million) in fines to nine financial institutionsincluding some of the world's most powerful banksafter a two-year probe into the country's largest-ever money laundering case. Credit Suisse's Singapore branch took the biggest hit at S$5.8 million, followed by penalties against UBS (NYSE:UBS), Citigroup (NYSE:C), United Overseas Bank, and others. The case, which surfaced in August 2023, saw authorities seize over S$3 billion worth of assets, from luxury condos and supercars to crypto. Ten suspects of Chinese origin were convicted, and two ex-bankers were charged earlier this year. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with UBS. At the heart of the issue: weak anti-money laundering controls. MAS pointed to poor or inconsistent implementation across the firms involved. Four individuals at Blue Ocean Invest were banned from regulated roles for up to six years, while several others received official reprimands. UBS, which absorbed Credit Suisse in 2023, said it fully cooperated with the review. Citi disclosed it has tightened onboarding and monitoring processes, while UOB and its brokerage arm UOB-Kay Hian also moved to close gaps. The regulator said it would monitor progress closely, signaling there's still more work to be done behind the scenes. This could be the biggest compliance reckoning since MAS shut down BSI Bank's local unit in 2016 during the fallout from the 1MDB scandal. While Singapore remains a rising star in global wealth managementassets under management climbed 10% to S$5.41 trillion last yearthe case highlights a tension between growth and governance. Similar crackdowns abroad have cost banks billions, including TD Bank's US$3.1 billion AML settlement last year and Danske Bank's US$2 billion fine in 2022. For investors, the key takeaway is this: as capital flows into Singapore, regulators are under pressure to show they can keep the pipes clean. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Taiwan Just Pulled a Surprise Move That Could Rattle Global Investors
Taiwan just fired another shot in the battle to slow its surging currencyand global investors may soon feel the ripple. The central bank is considering a rule that would force foreign funds to show proof of stock orders before converting into the Taiwan dollar, adding a 1-day delay to their currency settlement. That's a major change from the current setup, where investors can freely swap currencies on the same day they place tradesno questions asked. Officials say the rule, if adopted, would apply only to foreign institutions with weak inflow controls, not everyone. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with UBS. So why now? The Taiwan dollar has climbed nearly 14% against the greenback this year, putting pressure on the island's exporters and financial firms. In response, policymakers have rolled out a steady stream of defensive plays: asking foreign ETF investors to unwind currency bets, nudging local banks to delay dollar sales, and even forming a task force to help smaller businesses deal with the fallout. This new proposal could be the most direct attempt yet to limit speculative inflows driving up the currencythough it also introduces a new friction for foreign equity trades. Markets are already reacting. The implied gain on the Taiwan dollar via offshore forwards dropped, and the currency edged down about 0.2%. A meeting with custodian banks is set for next week. But if this rule goes live, it could reshape how funds manage positions in Taiwanese equities, from chip giants like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) to global leading EV like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) that have indirect exposure. Delayed settlement could mean higher risk, more complexityand less appetite for fast-money flows into one of Asia's hottest markets this year. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
South China Morning Post
3 hours ago
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Fallen world must ensure justice for future generations
Coming back from an extended conference on ' Gross National Happiness ' in Bhutan, one of the world's first carbon-negative countries, I became aware that intergenerational justice may be one of the most important moral questions we face today. The world is drowning in debt. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global debt amounted to US$250 trillion in 2023, or 237 per cent of GDP, with global private debt at more than US$150 trillion. Advertisement Meanwhile, worldwide net private wealth stood at US$454.4 trillion in 2022. If global private wealth is so much larger than global debt, is the latter actually a problem? It is if the world's wealth is distributed unevenly . Around 1 per cent of the world's adult population controlled US$208.3 trillion in 2022, or 45.8 per cent of the global total. Wealth is only getting more concentrated as the rich get richer. So even while GDP is rising and stock markets are hitting record highs , many people are still unhappy because they are being left behind. Wealth is passed down from generation to generation, but with the gradual dismantling of inheritance tax in many countries and expanded tax cuts for the rich, such as in the United States , wealth has been retained in wealthy hands. The UBS Global Wealth Report 2025 forecast that 'a total global wealth transfer of over US$83 trillion within the next 20-25 years. Some US$9 trillion of this will be horizontal and over US$74 trillion will be vertical, between generations, i.e. roughly 12 per cent.' In other words, most wealth is not distributed widely but gets passed down to successors and heirs At the household level, the bottom half of society not only does not have much wealth, they are also in debt . The IMF, however, is more concerned with the rise in public debt, which is the burden of all citizens, including future generations. After all, future generations inherit not just assets but also liabilities. Advertisement The poor are also subject to higher interest rates on their debt because they are perceived as a higher credit risk. Thus, when incomes are insufficient to pay both the interest and principal, the poor – including many developing markets – get further into debt distress
