CNBC Daily Open: Investors bet the fragile ceasefire would hold
The ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding. In yesterday's newsletter, we talked about how a blitzkrieg of missile-led diplomacy seemed to help de-escalate tensions.
The flipside of that strange path to a truce is that missiles, well, are fundamentally weapons. Mere hours after both countries agreed to the ceasefire, Israel said its longtime rival had fired missiles into its borders — an accusation which Tehran denied — and was preparing to "respond forcefully." Probably with more missiles.
U.S. President Donald Trump — who reportedly brokered the ceasefire with Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani — expressed frustration with those developments.
"I'm not happy with them. I'm not happy with Iran either but I'm really unhappy if Israel is going out this morning," Trump told a reporter pool en route to the NATO summit in the Netherlands.
His admonishments seemed to work. There is now a fragile armistice between the two countries.
Oil prices fell and U.S. stocks jumped.
Reuters uploaded a photo of Israeli residents playing frisbee at the beach on June 24. Flights at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport are resuming, and Iran's airspace is partially open, according to flight monitoring firm FlightRadar24, CNBC reported at around 3 a.m. Singapore time.
Three hours after that update, NBC News, citing three people familiar with the matter, reported that an initial assessment from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency found the American strikes on Iran's nuclear sites on Saturday left "core pieces … still intact."
And so it goes.
Israel-Iran ceasefire holds, for nowThe fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, announced by Trump on Monday, appears to be holding. Israel on Tuesday said it would honor the ceasefire so long as Iran does the same. Earlier in the day, both countries accused each other of violating the truce, and said they were ready to retaliate, prompting Trump to say he's "not happy" with them. Stay updated on the Israel-Iran conflict with CNBC's live blog here.
Markets jump as traders bet on truceU.S. stocks jumped Tuesday on expectations that the Israel-Iran ceasefire would hold. The S&P 500 gained 1.11% to put it just 0.9% away from its 52-week high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.19% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.43%. The Nasdaq-100 rose 1.53% to close at an all-time high. Europe's Stoxx 600 rose 1.11%. Travel stocks were some of the best performers, while oil and gas stocks fell the most.
Oil prices slump for a second dayOil prices tumbled Tuesday, its second day of declines, as the market bet that the risk of a major supply disruption had faded. U.S. crude oil settled down 6% at $64.37 a barrel while the global benchmark Brent fell 6.1%, to $67.14 during U.S. trading. Prices closed 7% lower on Monday. Earlier Tuesday, Trump said China can keep buying oil from Iran, in what seemed like a sign that the U.S. may soften its pressure campaign against Tehran.
Powell says Fed is 'well positioned to wait'At a U.S. congressional hearing Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the economy was still strong. But he noted that inflation is still above the central bank's target of 2%, and the Fed has an "obligation" to prevent tariffs from becoming "an ongoing inflation problem." In combination, those considerationsmake the Fed "well positioned to wait" before making a decision on interest rates.
U.S. is committed to NATO: Secretary-GeneralThere is "total commitment by the U.S. president and the U.S. senior leadership to NATO," the military alliance's Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Tuesday morning, as the summit kicked off in The Hague, Netherlands. But America expects Europe and Canada to spend as much as the U.S. does on defense. Ahead of the summit, members agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product by 2035.
[PRO] Not 'bullish enough' on rally: HSBCThe S&P 500′s rally off its April lows has brought it back to roughly 1% off its record high in a very short time. It's an advance that has perplexed many investors, who worry that another pullback is on the horizon. But Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC, said he worries he's not "bullish enough" on the current rally.
Strait of Hormuz GPS jamming remains major security issue, tanker CEO says
Despite a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran on Tuesday, security issues in the Strait of Hormuz continue for shipowners.
According to Angeliki Frangou, a fourth-generation shipowner and chairman and CEO of Greece-based Navios Maritime Partners, which owns and operates dry cargo ships and tankers, vessels in the Strait of Hormuz are still being threatened by continuous GPS signal blocking.
"We have had about 20% less passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, and vessels are waiting outside," Frangou told CNBC.
"You are hearing a lot from the liner [ocean shipping] companies that they are transiting only during daytime because of the jamming of GPS signals of vessels. They don't want to pass during the nighttime because they find it dangerous. So it's a very fluid situation," Frangou said.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
7 minutes ago
- Yahoo
The Outlook for Heat in the US to Moderate Knocks Nat-Gas Prices Lower
July Nymex natural gas (NGN25) on Monday closed down by -0.149 (-3.87%). July nat-gas prices on Monday extended last Friday's large losses on the outlook for extreme heat across the US to moderate, potentially reducing nat-gas demand from electricity providers to run air conditioning. Forecaster Vaisala said heat is expected to be more moderate across the eastern half of the US from June 28 to July 2, with forecasts shifting slightly cooler in the Midwest, South, and East. 1 Nuclear Energy Stock to Buy With 21% Upside Potential in June 2025 Palantir, Nuclear Stocks, and the Put/Call Ratio: Key Stocks, Sectors, and Indicators on Watch After U.S. Strikes on Iran Crude Oils Seasonal Tendency,: Slippery Slope or Bunker Buster? Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines. Geopolitical risks from the Israel-Iran war are supportive of nat-gas prices, as concerns persist that any attempt by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt LNG shipments through that Strait, which accounts for about 20% of global LNG trade. Lower-48 state dry gas production Sunday was 106.1 bcf/day (+2.9% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Sunday was 71.8 bcf/day (-4.4% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals Sunday were 14.0 bcf/day (+2.6% w/w), according to BNEF. An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that total US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended June 14 rose +0.8% y/y to 85,329 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending June 14 rose +2.9% y/y to 4,246,808 GWh. Last Wednesday's weekly EIA report was mixed for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended June 13 rose +95 bcf, below expectations of +97 bcf but well above the 5-year average build for this time of year of +72 bcf. As of June 13, nat-gas inventories were down -8.0% y/y and +6.1% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. In Europe, gas storage was 54% full as of June 16, versus the 5-year seasonal average of 64% full for this time of year. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending June 20 fell by -2 to 111 rigs, slightly below the 15-month high of 114 rigs from June 6. In the past nine months, gas rigs have risen from the 4-year low of 94 rigs posted in September 2024. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
8 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Atlan Holdings Bhd's (KLSE:ATLAN) Earnings Are Weaker Than They Seem
Despite posting some strong earnings, the market for Atlan Holdings Bhd's (KLSE:ATLAN) stock hasn't moved much. Our analysis suggests that shareholders have noticed something concerning in the numbers. Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. Most companies divide classify their revenue as either 'operating revenue', which comes from normal operations, and other revenue, which could include government grants, for example. Generally speaking, operating revenue is a more reliable guide to the sustainable revenue generating capacity of the business. However, we note that when non-operating revenue increases suddenly, it will sometimes generate an unsustainable boost to profit. It's worth noting that Atlan Holdings Bhd saw a big increase in non-operating revenue over the last year. Indeed, its non-operating revenue rose from RM2.33m last year to RM71.4m this year. The high levels of non-operating revenue are problematic because if (and when) they do not repeat, then overall revenue (and profitability) of the firm will fall. Sometimes, you can get a better idea of the underlying earnings potential of a company by excluding unusual boosts to non-operating revenue. Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Atlan Holdings Bhd. Since Atlan Holdings Bhd saw a big increase in its non-operating revenue over the last twelve months, we'd be very cautious about relying too heavily on the statutory profit number, which would have benefitted from this potentially unsustainable change. As a result, we think it may well be the case that Atlan Holdings Bhd's underlying earnings power is lower than its statutory profit. But the happy news is that, while acknowledging we have to look beyond the statutory numbers, those numbers are still improving, with EPS growing at a very high rate over the last year. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. Be aware that Atlan Holdings Bhd is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored... Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Atlan Holdings Bhd's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Yahoo
8 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Australia cashes in on record sheep prices as meat exports surge
By Peter Hobson CANBERRA (Reuters) -Australian sheep farmers are cashing in on record-high sheep prices, as rising global demand for lamb and mutton fuels a boom in exports from the world's top sheep meat supplier. Prices are likely to rise further in the coming years as production in New Zealand, Australia's biggest sheep meat export rival, stagnates, analysts said. "We've seen waves of higher and higher pricing as export demand and our market share has grown," said Matt Dalgleish, a livestock and meat analyst at consultants Episode 3. While there will be seasonal price volatility, he said, "until the underlying pressure of limited supply and strong growth in demand changes, there should be more good times ahead for Australian producers." Australia last year exported 702,000 metric tons of lamb, mutton and goat meat worth $3.6 billion, almost 200,000 tons more than in 2019, previously the biggest export year. Shipments in the first four months of this year were 10% higher than during the same period in 2024, Australian trade data show. Processors' need for animals pushed the price of heavy lambs to record highs of nearly A$11 ($7.14) a kilogram last week, up 50% from the same time last year, according to a national price indicator compiled by industry body Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA). China is the biggest importer of sheep meat. Other major buyers include the United States, Britain, the European Union and the Middle East. Rising incomes and populations are fuelling demand for sheep meat, and high beef prices, especially in the United States, are encouraging people to switch to lamb and mutton, Dalgleish said. Helping Australia take advantage of that growth is an ongoing decline in New Zealand's sheep industry. The two countries account for more than 80% of global sheep meat exports, according to MLA. The number of sheep in Australia grew in recent years, allowing farmers to better supply processors, but New Zealand's flock has shrunk every year since 2012, according to the country's statistics agency - something New Zealand farmers say is partly due to the conversion of grazing land to pine forests that earn carbon credits. "New Zealand is the other major global exporter," said Angus Gidley-Baird, an analyst at Rabobank. "Its production is stagnating or retracting. So any growth in global demand is Australia's opportunity for the taking." ($1 = 1.5399 Australian dollars) Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
