Thai GDP forecast cut to 1.7% amid multiple crises and political uncertainty
BANGKOK: The Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting (CEBF) at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) has revised Thailand's GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 3% to 1.7%, citing a combination of global and domestic challenges weighing on the economy in the second half of the year.
Thanawat Pholvichai, President of UTCC and the centre's chief adviser, outlined a string of mounting concerns: the ongoing trade war and potential US tariffs on Thai goods, the Israel-Iran conflict, rising tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border, domestic political instability, and the effectiveness of the government's stimulus disbursement.
The revised forecast assumes no further escalation in any of these risk areas.
The outlook hinges on the US imposing only 10–15% tariffs on Thai products — with negotiations now entering the final 10 days before the July 8 deadline.
It also assumes a quick de-escalation of both the Middle East conflict and Thai-Cambodian border issues, and that Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra remains in office throughout 2025, enabling 50% of the national budget to be disbursed.
Export growth is still expected to come in at +2.5%. - The Nation/ANN
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