Hong Kong growth to hold steady in 2H25
The SAR's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.1% in real terms year-on-year in the 2Q25, according to the Census and Statistics Department.
On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP expanded by 0.4% in real terms compared to the 1Q25.
'This pattern of growth, even in a challenging external environment, highlights Hong Kong's economic resilience – anchored in its open market structure, sound financial infrastructure, and strategic role in connecting the Chinese mainland with the outside world,' said Edward Au Chunhing, southern region managing partner of Deloitte China.
Au said the robust rebound in exports is 'the most significant contributor' to the remarkable economic growth in the 2Q25, driven by 'rushed shipments' by traders ahead of anticipated tariff policy changes in the United States, alongside Hong Kong's deepening trade ties with the Chinese mainland and other Asian markets.
University of Hong Kong's business school associate dean Tang Heiwai said apart from exports, another significant driver has been the robust financial sector.
According to government data, this sector – a major component of the city's economy – directly contributed nearly 25% to Hong Kong's GDP in 2023.
Tang highlighted a few favourable circumstances boosting the local stock market, including encouragement by the People's Bank of China to expand the southbound investment channel, and international capital inflows prompted by concerns over US tariff policies.
He further pointed out that these dynamics have benefitted several other industries, especially business services, thereby improving the overall market condition.
Tang forecasts Hong Kong's financial sector to propel economic growth in the 2H25 as well, buoyed by the substantial pipeline of enterprises preparing to list on the stock market.
He said the overall yearly growth will align with the SAR government's target range of between 2% and 3%.
In June, Carlson Tong Ka-shing, chairman of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, said the market had 190 businesses waiting to list in the city.
'With the boost from exports and the financial industry, the two pillars of Hong Kong's economy, I expect the annual growth will approach or even surpass 3%.
'I remain optimistic about the short-term economic growth,' Tang said.
However, Au cautioned about the risk of an export slowdown, noting that despite a solid recovery, Hong Kong's economy may encounter challenges in the 2H25 and well into 2026.
'The recent export boost from front-loaded shipments may not be sustained, especially amid rising global trade tensions and the potential impact of new US tariffs on major markets,' Au explained.
Despite geopolitical tensions, Hong Kong Baptist University associate professor in the department of accountancy, economics and finance Billy Mak Sui-choi remains optimistic that the export momentum will be sustained in the 3Q25, if the United States continues to postpone tariff moves against China.
He noted that August and September are peak shipment months to Western countries ahead of holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas, which will typically bolster the export and transshipment volumes.
Meanwhile, an improved tourism sector and stabilising retail market, coupled with a growing influx of overseas tourists, are expected to boost the broader economy, he added.
Mak is 'cautiously optimistic' about economic growth in the coming months, while emphasising the necessity of creating new growth points. — China Daily/ANN
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