
India could tackle economic slowdown, US tariff threat in annual budget
India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the federal budget on Saturday amid signs the world's fastest-growing major economy is slowing down, with economists calling for a broad policy reset to address stagnant consumption and drive far-reaching reforms.
The International Monetary Fund in its global economic outlook this month estimated the South Asian nation's economic growth to remain at 6.5 per cent through this year and the next amid slowing industrial activity, down from a robust 8.2 per cent in 2023.
Despite retaining its status as a global growth leader even with the downturn, India faces a challenging landscape that industry executives hope the budget will tackle by removing pain points such as sluggish consumer demand and stalled privatisation.
'It will be the first full-term budget for the government's third term and I would love to see broad directional reforms,' said Naushad Forbes, co-chairman of multinational engineering company Forbes Marshall. Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the federal budget on Saturday. Photo: EPA-EFE
India's last federal budget was in July, after the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party returned to power in national elections albeit at the head of a coalition, following a loss of its outright majority.
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The case for a stronger Chinese yuan
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On a very basic level, notes independent economist Andy Xie, letting the yuan rise would communicate 'confidence' to global markets. Also, Xie argues, it would help Beijing 'reduce its structural weakness' and help 'encourage consumption and discourage overcapacity.' There are more immediate reasons why President Xi, the PBOC and the Finance Ministry have been reluctant to drive the yuan lower. One is managing default risks. Every drop in the yuan makes it harder for the most highly leveraged property developers to make payments on dollar bonds. A weaker yuan also works at cross purposes with Beijing's multi-year effort to reduce leverage. It also might irk Trump World, upping the odds that 145% tariffs are reimposed. But independent of geopolitical events, a rising yuan is very much in China's economic interest. Just look at Japan's experience with an undervalued exchange rate these last dozen-plus years. Though Tokyo has favored a weaker yen since the late 1990s, the push took on new urgency in 2012 when Shinzo Abe returned to the premiership. Abe hired a new Bank of Japan governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, to drive the exchange rate sharply lower. Kuroda did just that. He slashed official interest rates and hoarded bonds and stock. The yen's 30% drop was meant to boost corporate profits to create a virtuous cycle of increased wages and consumption to end deflation. Instead, a weaker yen unleashed a bull market in complacency. Abe's big talk of modernizing labor markets, cutting bureaucracy, supporting startups, empowering women and attracting top global talent took a backseat to manipulating exchange rates. Rather than do the heavy lifting to retool the economy, Abe prodded the BOJ to go even further into uncharted territory, opening the monetary floodgates. Unfortunately, it backfired on Japan, whose gross domestic product has shrunk as a result. All four Japanese governments that ruled since late 2012 prioritized yen depreciation over moves to increase competitiveness. Aggressive quantitative easing took the pressure off politicians to level playing fields. It took the onus off CEOs to innovate, restructure and swing for the fences. That's now blowing up on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, as Japan imports too much inflation, too fast. The 3.6% inflation is nearly twice the BOJ's 2% target. And productivity is waning, too, a product of years of foot-dragging on moves to level playing fields. China needs to avoid this dynamic. There are myriad reasons why. One is projecting economic confidence. As former Morgan Stanley economist Xie argues, a rising exchange rate is a sign that Beijing is comfortable with its ability to accept the judgment of global markets. And that Team Xi is walking the walk on claims that it's seeking increased capital flows from abroad. A rising exchange rate is ultimately a show of surety. And those capital inflows pull in more long-term investment, lower bond yields, tame import prices and encourage governments to spend more time raising their economic games, rather than manipulating markets. A rising exchange rate also would help Beijing pivot away from the dollar more forcefully. More buoyant capital markets are a precursor to creating new, good-paying jobs from the ground up, not protecting state-sector jobs from the top down. This, in addition to building bigger social safety nets, would help accelerate China's transformation into a consumer-driven nation. Also, it would globalize the yuan for real. Since 2013, Xi has pledged to let market forces play a 'decisive role.' They're meant to reduce the amplitude of yuan gyrations without Beijing manipulating market dynamics in ways that irk the IMF and Trump's Treasury Department. Since 2016, the yuan has been in the IMF's top-five currency basket. That requires China to liberalize the financial system, loosen the capital account and move toward letting markets decide the yuan's value. These dynamics, in turn, will get Xi closer to his goal of the yuan rivaling the dollar as a global transactional currency of choice. It's a vital part of the reform process. Shifting China's growth model more assertively away from exports once and for all means Beijing must become a bigger importer of capital. A rising yuan serves that goal. A rising exchange rate would also accelerate China Inc.'s move upmarket. Japan, a far more developed economy, is a cautionary tale of weak exchange rates undermining innovation and productivity. In the short run, a falling currency boosts corporate profits and government coffers. Yet, it's a crutch that stymies economic development in the long run. Why bother restructuring, inventing new products or shaking up vested interests when government currency managers have your back? Rather than modernize operations and make bold changes, executives papered over cracks with weak yen-driven profits. South Korea, too, has often faced a similar complacency dynamic with its giant, coddled, family-owned conglomerates. At the same time, historical evidence is quite clear that a strengthening currency is generally supportive for the equity market, as Goldman Sachs strategists argue about China. It also has investors pivoting to Chinese bonds. Not just as a hedge against shaky US Treasuries but also because China is exuding the kind of broad confidence fixed-income investors seek and crave. Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek