England vs Italy Euro 2025 semi-final odds, prediction: Lionesses heavily favoured to advance

New York Times

22-07-2025

If we can take one positive from possibly the worst penalty shootout in football history, it's that the Lionesses know how to win big matches even when the odds are stacked against them.
After missing four penalties in a bizarre and baffling 3-2 shootout victory over Sweden, the question on everyone's minds is how Sarina Wiegman's side are still in this tournament as they prepare for a semi-final clash against Italy.
Advertisement
England were 2-0 down on the night after a shambolic display saw Kosovare Asllani put Sweden ahead in the first two minutes before Stina Blackstenius doubled their lead just over 20 minutes later. But this England team have shown once again that they don't go out without a fight after Lucy Bronze and Michelle Agyemang scored two goals in two minutes to take the tie to extra time.
Even when things weren't going their way on penalties, they somehow found a way. Maybe an element of luck swung their way, but Chloe Kelly's crucial conversion when they couldn't afford to miss, coupled with Hannah Hampton's brilliant saves helped England eventually take charge of a breathless, chaotic shootout that will go down in history for all the wrong reasons.
For England, none of that matters because they now have a chance of making history for all the right reasons by retaining the European Championship.
'I'm just thinking about how this team turned this around again,' Wiegman said after the game. 'How this team showed resilience and kept going. Tonight we showed we're absolutely never done.'
Captain Leah Williamson echoed that sentiment in a later interview after the game.
'I just feel really, really proud,' Williamson said. 'That was awful to watch in the end but the girls, I just know that we don't ever give up and we've said it before, we're never done. We never believe that we're ever done and the fightback, the quality to turn the game around and then stay in it mentally, just incredible.'
England will need that strong mentality and plenty of it against the Italians, who showed they are no pushovers either following a 2-1 win over Norway thanks to a dramatic winner from captain Cristiana Girelli in the 90th minute.
It's the first time Italy have made the last four of this competition since 1997 and Girelli herself talked about the team realising a 'dream' after they 'fought until the end' against the previously unbeaten Norse outfit.
Advertisement
Italy haven't had a straightforward journey here and can count themselves lucky to make the knockouts after winning just one game in the group stage, which was rounded off with a 3-1 loss to Spain.
So it's a battle of two fighters that don't know when they're beaten — but something will have to give when they come head-to-head in Geneva on Tuesday night.
England are the clear favourites despite their nerve-shredding win over the Swedes last week, with Betfair handing them odds of 1/4 to reach their third straight major tournament final. Italy, meanwhile, have much longer odds of 10/3 to prevail but England should underestimate their opponents at their own peril. Girelli looks deadly in front of goal and has already scored three times in this tournament.
England have a number of concerns heading into the game, with Leah Williamson, Lucy Bronze and Lauren James all in danger of missing the vital clash after picking up knocks against Sweden. Italy have no injuries or suspensions to be worried about.
Odds (for regular time) via Betfair
Time: Tuesday, 8 p.m. BST (3 p.m. ET)
Venue: Stade de Genève, Geneva
England 2, Italy 1
England never do things the easy way. We know that. But we've also seen that they get the job done. They were comfortably brushed aside by France at the start of this tournament and bounced back with a 4-0 win over the Netherlands and then a 6-1 demolition of Wales. Whenever Wiegman has demanded a response from her players, she usually gets it and I expect to see that against Italy. It's unlikely to be a vintage performance, but England should have enough to get the job done and book their place in the final.
Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Lucy Bronze: Sebastien Bozon / AFP via Getty Images)