Decade of conservation efforts wiped out in Arran wildfire
High up on an Arran hillside stands the green shoot of a single tree. The endangered whitebeam species, which is only found on the the Firth of Clyde island, is all that has survived one of the devastating wildfires that swept across Scotland earlier this month.
About 27,000 trees — including whitebeams — were destroyed when a blaze ripped through Glen Rosa, a conservation area, before Easter. Scientists also believe hundreds of reptiles and amphibians — adders, slow worms and frogs — died.
Kate Sampson, the National Trust for Scotland's senior ranger on Arran, said a decade of work to restore the valley had been wiped out. Apart from the solitary whitebeam sapling, which sits on a charred slope near the Blue Pools, one of
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Sky News
9 hours ago
- Sky News
Powerful new supercomputer to be built in Scotland in government U-turn
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Sky News
12 hours ago
- Sky News
Could Britain face a winter ice age? How temperatures could one day plummet due to climate change
There is a poorly understood but plausible chance winter temperatures could plummet in the UK even as global temperatures soar. An emerging body of research is charting the risk that climate change could weaken or even collapse a major ocean current that brings heat northwards from the Atlantic into Europe. In the absence of that warm front, Britain would be plunged into a new ice age in winter, battling frozen runways, roads, forests and farmland. Arctic sea ice would blanket much of Scotland and most of the North Sea down to East Anglia by late winter. Temperatures in London would reach lows of -19C, a staggering 16C colder than lows in the 1800s, before humans began changing the climate. That's according to a new study published today that has modelled what a collapse of the so-called "AMOC" (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), combined with 2C of global warming, would mean for Europe. In Edinburgh, changes would be even more drastic. The study found temperatures would fall below zero on 164 days in a year - that's almost half of the year. All scientists know at this stage, more or less, is that the AMOC is probably less stable than previously thought. They don't know how likely such a collapse is, how quickly it could unfold, and what the precise impacts would be. What they do know, is that if it happens, it would be "quite devastating," said lead author Rene van Westen, from Utrecht University in the Netherlands. "The AMOC is currently regulating the global climate. And if this shuts down, you will get substantial and drastic climate shifts... not only [in] Europe, it is something on a planetary scale." And they say the risk has so far been overlooked. What is the AMOC? Snaking its way around the world, the so-called AMOC plays a crucial role in regulating both the European and global climate by circulating heat via the oceans like a conveyor belt. But as the climate warms, it dumps more freshwater in the ocean via rainfall and melting ice, which could slow down the conveyor belt to a point where the system shuts down completely. Arctic sea ice would creep much further southwards in winter, covering parts of Scandinavia and the Netherlands as well as Britain. What would an AMOC collapse do to Europe? Today's study, published in peer-reviewed journal Geophysical Research Letters, modelled what it would mean for Europe if the world warmed by around 2C, and the AMOC collapsed. Edinburgh would in some years see cold extremes of almost -30°C - almost 23°C colder than in the pre-industrial climate. In Cardiff, temperatures would reach -19.6C. Meanwhile, sea levels would rise by 50cm, and rain would fall by 20%. "The extreme winters would be like living in an ice age," said Professor Tim Lenton, an Exeter University scientist who also researches AMOC. But bizarrely, summer temperatures would not be affected by the AMOC weakening, resulting in cold-hot extremes more common in continental weather systems. That's because the sea ice would still melt in summer, and the effect of the 2C of warming would kick in. "In extreme years, it would be like coming out of the freezer into a frying pan of summer heatwaves," added Prof Lenton. "It is hard to over-stress how different a climate this is. Adapting to it would be a monumental challenge." When could this happen? The impacts suggested in this study are extreme and there remains a long list of questions. Scientists don't expect the AMOC to fizzle out this century. And if the world warmed by more like 4C, the warming effect would override the cooling effect of any AMOC collapse. But Prof Richard Allan from Reading University said it is still "important to test the ground for these unlikely but high impact possibilities, in the same way that we insure our homes against improbable calamity". It raises difficult and terrifying questions about what kind of climate we should be trying to adapt to. Although scientists are undecided on whether the AMOC will die out, what they do agree on is that the complexity and weirdness of the climate system is why we should mess with it as little as possible. Prof Allen added: "Even the mere possibility of this dire storyline unfolding over coming centuries underscores the need to forensically monitor what is happening in our oceans, and to continue building momentum across all sectors of society to cut greenhouse gas emissions which are driving our climate into dangerous, uncharted territory."
Daily Mail
13 hours ago
- Daily Mail
The real-life Day After Tomorrow: Scientists reveal exactly how COLD Britain will get if the Gulf Stream collapses - with some areas plunging to -30°C
The UK could be plunged into a deep freeze with temperatures dropping as low as -30°C if climate change triggers a Gulf Stream collapse, experts have warned. For years, scientists have sounded the alarm over the potential effects of global warming, from increased droughts to catastrophic floods. But one scenario bears a stark resemblance to the film The Day After Tomorrow, in which parts of Britain could experience temperatures more common in northern Canada. Researchers examined how Europe's climate could be affected if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) were to substantially weaken in conjunction with 2°C of global warming. Their analysis revealed that temperatures could plunge to -30°C in Scotland, while Edinburgh would spend nearly half of the year with a minimum temperature of below 0°C. London, meanwhile, would experience cold extremes of -19°C and record over two months' worth of additional days with sub-zero temperatures compared to the late 19th century. Expanding sea ice could cover parts of the British Isles, and there would also be increased winter storms, they warned. The AMOC is the large-scale ocean circulation in the Atlantic Ocean that plays a crucial role in regulating both the global and European climate by redistributing heat through the ocean. There is growing concern that the AMOC, of which the Gulf Stream is a part, may weaken or collapse under future climate change due to an influx of freshwater. In the new study, researchers used a complex climate model to simulate a range of scenarios in which the circulation system substantially weakens by more than 80 per cent, while also including the effects of global warming. They warned urgent action must be taken in an attempt to avoid these 'dangerous tipping points'. 'The relatively mild climate for a city such as Edinburgh would see drastic changes,' Michiel Baatsen, co-author of the study, said. 'For example, it would experience 164 days with minimum temperatures below zero, that's almost 50 per cent of the year, and an increase of 133 days compared to the pre-industrial climate. 'The Scandinavian climate would become much colder under such a scenario, with even Norway's typically mild west coast potentially experiencing extremes below -40°C — a drop of 25 degrees compared to the pre-industrial climate.' The researchers explained that summer temperatures are not significantly affected by a weaker Atlantic Ocean circulation, although some places would see a slight increase in warm extremes or summer temperatures. As a result, the contrast between summer and winter becomes greater, with much colder winters. There was an unusually cold winter recorded in Europe 15 years ago. Pictured, a driver tries to dig a car out from under the snow in Allendale, Northumberland, January 5, 2010 What is the AMOC? The Gulf Stream is a small part of a much wider system of currents, officially called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC. Described as 'the conveyor belt of the ocean', it transports warm water near the ocean's surface northwards - from the tropics to the northern hemisphere. When the warm water reaches the North Atlantic (Europe and the UK, and the US east coast), it releases the heat and then freezes. As this ice forms, salt is left behind in the ocean water. Due to the large amount of salt in the water, it becomes denser, sinks, and is carried southwards – back towards the tropics – in the depths below. Eventually, the water gets pulled back up towards the surface and warms up in a process called upwelling, completing the cycle. Scientists think AMOC brings enough warmth to the northern hemisphere that without it, large parts of Europe could enter a deep freeze. Beyond temperature effects, previous studies show that a weaker circulation system would also lead to less precipitation in Europe, along with faster sea-level rise in the Atlantic Ocean. 'Continued greenhouse gas emissions put us on a path to further extreme climate impacts, leading to more heatwaves, droughts, and other extreme weather events,' René van Westen, lead author of the study, said. 'The longer we keep burning fossil fuels, the worse these will get. At the same time, every fraction of a degree of global warming brings us closer to the collapse of the AMOC. 'Our new study shows that this would take Europe to the other extreme - a freezing cold future.' 'Policymakers must take heed - urgent and drastic cuts to greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to mitigate the most catastrophic impacts of the climate crisis and prevent the devastating consequences of an AMOC collapse on society.' Commenting on the study Gareth Redmond-King, Head of International Programme at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said: 'A collapse of the AMOC, a critical ocean current, would tip the UK's current temperate climate into something like the cold of northern Canada, seriously reducing the land suitable for growing crops, and putting our food security in serious danger. 'Cutting emissions to net zero is the only solution we have to averting the most dangerous impacts of climate change. Dr Bablu Sinha, Leader of Climate and Uncertainty, Marine Systems Modelling (MSM), National Oceanography Centre, said the results are 'physically plausible' and in line with previous modelling studies. Professor Jon Robson, Research Fellow at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, added: 'A collapse in the strength of the AMOC would have serious implications, including for people living in Europe. 'This research adds to a growing worry that a collapse in the strength of the AMOC could mean sharp drops in European winter temperatures and increases in winter storminess across Northern Europe, even in a globally warming climate.' However some experts urged a sense of caution. Dr Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, Senior Research Scientist at the National Oceanography Centre, said: 'While these modelling studies are of great value to our community, it is important to be aware that our observational ocean records have not yet captured a tipping point, so the results of this study and their immediate impact on the real world must be interpreted with caution.' The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, was carried out by researchers from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and Utrecht University.
