logo
ASX breaks winning streak as investors await RBA rate cut

ASX breaks winning streak as investors await RBA rate cut

The Age19-05-2025

Domino's pizza shares dropped 2.6 per cent after the surprise resignation of its chief executive after nine months in the job. Less than one year ago, shares were valued at $39.35 per share – they are now $24.55.
Miners BHP (down 2.4 per cent), Fortescue (down 4.9 per cent) and Rio Tinto (down 1.3 per cent) suffered losses after a fall in iron ore prices.
Mineral Resources (down 8.8 per cent) slumped as it unveiled its new chair, Malcolm Bundey, who will take over from James McClements on July 1.
The price of oil fell, which weighed down the energy sector, with Woodside (down 1.5 per cent) Santos (down 1.7 per cent) and Yancoal (2 per cent) among worst performers.
Commonwealth Bank (up 1 per cent) bucked the trend in the banking sector, closing at $171.36, while ANZ (down 1.7 per cent), NAB (down 0.5 per cent) and Macquarie Group (down 1.6 per cent) all lost ground.
The lowdown
David Bassanese, chief economist at BetaShares ETFs, said it was hard to pinpoint what drove the changes in the market but speculated there could be some 'nagging doubt' that the RBA would cut rates tomorrow.
'It [a rate cute] is almost a virtual certainty, priced into the market,' said Bassanese. 'Maybe just some concern that there's a nagging doubt that the RBA may not cut rates tomorrow.'
Big-four banks are predicting a rate cut, which the RBA will announce on Tuesday afternoon. It is expected to lower the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points.
HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said it was obvious a rate cut was needed, but the cautious approach of the RBA made it hard to predict.
'The RBA's patient approach to dealing with the post-pandemic inflation surge has paid off,' said Bloxham. 'Core inflation has fallen back into the RBA's target band without a recession or large retrenchment of the jobs market.'
If not for the concern regarding a rate cut, the day's losses could be the result of some profit-taking after a stretch of positive closes on the ASX, Bassanese said.
Loading
Bassanese also said credit ratings agency Moody's decision to downgrade the United States' AAA credit rating – combined with deepening concern that growing debt will damage America's standing as the choice destination for global capital – may have affected the slide.
The Moody's downgrade caused US Treasury yields to move higher, increased appetite for haven assets and boosted gold after its biggest weekly decline in six months.
The one-notch cut from Moody's comes more than a year after Moody's changed its outlook on the US rating to negative. The credit assessor now has a stable outlook.
'While we recognise the US' significant economic and financial strengths, we believe these no longer fully counterbalance the decline in fiscal metrics,' Moody's wrote in a statement.
Tweet of the day
Quote of the day
'We'll get the first of the Productivity Commission's reports today on things we can do to improve our ... productivity. Well, let's hope something comes of it. I'll believe it when I see it.'
– Economics editor Ross Gittins examining how to grow productivity.

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Inflation, interest rates; Westpac predicts a rate hold
Inflation, interest rates; Westpac predicts a rate hold

The Australian

timean hour ago

  • The Australian

Inflation, interest rates; Westpac predicts a rate hold

Westpac says the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep rates on hold when they next meet in July, despite weak consumer spending and falling economic growth. The big four bank has bucked money markets predictions, which are currently factoring in an 84 per cent chance of a rate cut in July, saying the RBA will be 'cautious and predictable'. Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis, a former assistant RBA governor, expects just two more rate cuts this year, coming in August and November, saying the market is getting ahead of itself. 'The (RBA) board described itself as having a preference to move cautiously and predictably,' she wrote in an economic note. 'This is code for not wanting to do back-to-back cuts. 'It also made it clear in the minutes that this was about reducing restrictiveness, not moving quickly back to neutral in the style of the Federal Reserve last year.' Westpac believes interest rates will be kept on hold this July. Picture: NewsWire / Nicholas Eagar While homeowners may need to wait, Ms Ellis agrees with the majority of the market that interest rates eventually will fall below 3 per cent. To get to this point, Ms Ellis expects rate cuts will come in February and May 2026, though the central bank might also move in December should more Australians lose their jobs. According to the economist, the RBA will look to keep inflation under control over trying to give the economy a quick jump. 'Nothing that has happened since (the May meeting), including a disappointing GDP number, has been enough to tip the RBA into changing its mind in the near term,' Ms Ellis said. These figures released earlier in the month, showed GDP growth for the March quarter came in at just 0.2 per cent, lower than market forecasts. In May the RBA reduced Australia's GDP forecasts for the 2025 calendar year from 2.4 per cent to 2.1 per cent. Westpac economist Luci Ellis believes weak GDP figures will not be enough to sway the RBA. Picture: NewsWire, Monique Harmer But AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina disagrees, saying the weaker than expected GDP figures will see the Reserve Bank cut rates. 'The weakness in the March quarter GDP data pushed us to now expect another 0.25 per cent rate cut in July (as well as August, November and February 2026),' she previously wrote in an economic note. 'This is similar to market pricing at the moment.' Commonwealth Bank senior economist Belinda Allen also believes there could be a rate cut in July, if economic data comes in lower than the RBA forecasts. 'The progression of consumer spending data will be a key focus for the RBA ahead of the 8 July rate decision,' she said. 'The balance of probabilities continues to shift towards a July rate cut (our base case remains August) but will depend on upcoming data flow including the May monthly CPI and labour market data.' Weak consumer spending has been a drag on the economy. Picture: NewsWire / John Appleyard In a silver lining for households, Ms Ellis believes May's jobs data coming out next week will show the current jobs market is tighter than the RBA's view of full employment, meaning more Aussies will have a job. Ms Ellis said looking longer term, the case for multiple rate cuts is building as inflation shifts in the face of slower population growth and shakier private sector demand. 'Recent data has made it clear that population growth is unwinding a bit faster than previously thought,' she said. 'We have assessed that this is enough to have implications for housing costs, particularly rents. 'Over time, this puts a little more downside into measures of underlying inflation. We are also seeing a bit more downside in some parts of services inflation.' Read related topics: Westpac

Lindian boosts coffers with $1.65M cash from shares and R&D refund
Lindian boosts coffers with $1.65M cash from shares and R&D refund

West Australian

time2 hours ago

  • West Australian

Lindian boosts coffers with $1.65M cash from shares and R&D refund

Lindian Resources has topped up its coffers with a double shot of cash totalling just under $1.65 million from the exercise of 10M unlisted options at $0.12 per share for $1.2M and a $448,753 research and development refund. The federal Research and Development Tax Incentive Program refund is for process development and metallurgical testwork Lindian conducted to improve beneficiation at its massive Kangankunde rare earths project in Malawi. Kangankunde, about 90 kilometres north of Malawi's main economic and commercial centre Blantyre, potentially ranks among the world's biggest rare earths deposits. It is highly regarded because of its elevated rare earths grades, low incidence of impurities and radioactive minerals, and attractive cost structure that positions the project in the lowest cost quartile of rare earths projects globally. The total indicated and inferred mineral resource for the project is 261 million tonnes at an average grade of 2.14 per cent total rare earth oxides (TREO) at a 0.5 per cent TREO cut-off grade. The total indicated resource is 61Mt grading 2.43 per cent TREO, at a 0.5 per cent TREO cut-off grade, which includes a higher-grade 25Mt averaging 3.26 per cent TREO using a higher 2.5 per cent TREO cut-off. The resources contain a maiden ore reserve of 23.7Mt at 2.9 per cent TREO, which studies show will support a stage one mine life of 45-years . Almost 20 per cent of the reserve comprises the more valuable magnet rare earths, neodymium and praseodymium. Stage one development involves mining and a mineral processing plant and necessary support infrastructure and would be a logical springboard for future expansions of the operation. Lindian's beneficiation studies on the Kangankunde deposit have focussed on gravity and magnetic separation techniques to extract a concentrate. Initial studies show that water-only, low-cost beneficiation methods aimed at minimising capital expenditure will yield about 70 per cent recovery. The company aims to produce a high rare earth oxide concentrate of 60 per cent TREO for export. Earlier this month, Lindian's site development update showed it was well on track with haul road construction, critical infrastructure and solar power farm works. Additionally, mining and power infrastructure contracts and pricing for long lead-time items are being finalised and shortlisted. Lindian has also recently appointed experienced personnel across its site operations to fill roles including senior process engineer, construction superintendent, project planner, QA/QC superintendent and health, safety and environment officer. The company remains on track to begin plant construction this year. Is your ASX-listed company doing something interesting? Contact:

Reserve Bank warns ‘periodic disruptions' to debt markets are likely amid bond glut
Reserve Bank warns ‘periodic disruptions' to debt markets are likely amid bond glut

West Australian

time2 hours ago

  • West Australian

Reserve Bank warns ‘periodic disruptions' to debt markets are likely amid bond glut

Surging government borrowing across the world could push up interest rates and investors have been told to brace for repeats of the April volatility sparked by Donald Trump's trade chaos. Reserve Bank head of domestic markets David Jacobs warned investors to prepare for 'periodic disruptions' amid ongoing uncertainty overseas. But he said Australia's bond market — where governments and businesses borrow cash — should be strong enough and flexible enough to overcome any pressure. Interest rates on US government debt rocketed after Mr Trump's tax hikes on trade and the squeeze was widely cited as the reason his administration swiftly back-flipped on the worst of the proposals. While central banks like the RBA and US Fed set benchmark interest rates, there are many other factors that impact rates for borrowers across the market including businesses, banks, and ultimately, homeowners. 'Events in early April were somewhat dramatic, though brief, and illustrated how changes in the global economic system will play out quickest in capital markets,' Mr Jacobs said at the Australian Government Fixed Income Forum in Tokyo. He said markets had quickly steadied but only after the US paused the tariffs. 'That suggests little room for complacency,' he said. 'Much as international trade may be diverted in a new economic order – so too might international capital.' That might mean investors worry about Australia's position as a free trade nation and relationship with China in a world moving towards tariffs and protectionism. Yet Australia may also remain an attractive place to send cash because of strong institutions and a great credit rating. There has been a sharp increase in government borrowing in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and amid giant doses of stimulus pumped into major economies. Australian Federal Government net debt is set to hit $620 billion by June next year, about double the level from a decade ago. Mr Jacobs said increased borrowing and central banks stepping back pandemic-era operations meant more bonds were hitting the market — which had been labelled a 'global bond glut'. That means governments may need to pay higher interest rates on debt, potentially pushing up borrowing costs across the economy.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store