Warren Hammond's Personal View: Gold to hit R91 935 - The case remains intact
A thoughtful question was recently asked of me by a Middle East–based institutional private credit fund manager: 'Could a slew of trade agreements trigger a sharp pullback in the gold price?'
While I acknowledge the potential for short-term price fluctuations, I remain confident that the structural drivers supporting gold's long-term ascent remain firmly intact.
Since that original recommendation, gold has moved materially higher. The $3,000 (R55,161) price target reached in early 2025 was upgraded to $5,000 (R91,935) on 26 February 2025, with a 12-month horizon.
Do I expect volatility? Certainly, a 5 – 8% correction is part of any healthy trend. But I do not anticipate a crash, even amid trade accords. The Broader Macro Context
To fully appreciate this view, one must consider the broader macro framework. In January 2016, I published 'The USA – Major Themes 2015–2033', arguing that this period would echo the historic transformation of 1895–1913, a time of seismic shifts in industry, finance, geopolitics, and technology.
Consider the parallels: Trade Protectionism – McKinley's 1897 tariffs vs. today's US-China duties
Energy Transition – Coal and electrification then, renewables and EVS now
Tech Disruption – Model T, plastics, and radio vs. AI, quantum, and robotics
Immigration Shifts – Labour realignment then and now
Financial Reset – The Panic of 1907 led to the Fed; today's system is again overstretched
Isolationism – Then and now, a pullback from global integration
In both eras, gold plays a stabilising role, not speculative, but a pillar of trust and monetary credibility.
Today: Central banks (Asia & Middle East) are stockpiling gold
De-dollarisation is accelerating
Supply constraints tighten the market (fewer discoveries, higher costs, underinvestment)
Geopolitical fragmentation boosts demand for a neutral store of value
Trade breakthroughs may soften headlines, but they don't cure structural excess, fiscal fragility, or currency erosion. They reconfigure, not resolve. Why Gold Remains Essential
Gold remains essential: a portfolio cornerstone, and a hedge, not just against inflation or conflict, but against systemic dysfunction, volatility, and monetary decline.
That's why my forecast stands: $5,000 (R91,935) within 12 months (from 26 Feb 2025).
This isn't merely a price call – it's a thesis shaped since March 2021, rooted in macro history, geopolitics, and structural insight.
The path to $ 5,000 (R91,935) is open. Who's positioned for it?
What's your take on gold's trajectory? Do you see $ 5,000 (R91,935) as realistic or too ambitious? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1
Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Daily Maverick
9 hours ago
- Daily Maverick
Competition Commission and international banks to square off in ConCourt over rand price-fixing accusations
The case stems from allegations that the banks were manipulating the foreign exchange rate between the US dollar and the rand over several years by sharing information on messaging platforms. The Constitutional Court is due to hear four days of legal argument in a matter involving the Competition Commission and more than two dozen banks from across the world, which the commission has accused of 'the most egregious form of anti-competitive conduct'. The case stems from allegations that the banks were manipulating the foreign exchange rate between the US dollar and the rand over several years by sharing information on messaging platforms. Three cases, one brought by the commission and the other two brought by the French bank BNP Paribas and US-based Credit Suisse Securities, have been combined into a single massive hearing at which the court will determine whether all or some of the banks should be held liable for colluding. Years of legal battles The case has its origin in a 2017 referral by the Competition Commission to the Competition Tribunal, in which the commission alleged that international traders were using the Bloomberg instant messaging service to discuss the pricing of the US dollar to rand exchange rate. The commission eventually included 28 banks in its case referral. 'The traders shared competitively sensitive information and made arrangements to assist each other by coordinating their trading activities. The traders would regularly agree on the bid-offer spread or spot rate for buying and selling of the USD/ZAR currency paid,' said the commission. The traders would also make arrangements to manipulate the bid-offer prices on the Reuters trading platform by agreeing on the order of transacting, withholding their trades, or posting 'fake bids and offers', said Makgale Mohlala, the manager of the cartels division of the Competition Commission, in an affidavit before the ConCourt. Various banks filed appeals and exceptions to the case, alleging that the commission did not have the jurisdiction to refer the case. The Competition Appeal Court heard the matters and found that the commission had no jurisdiction with regard to 17 of the international banks. Just four international banks were retained in the case: BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse Securities, JPMorgan Chase and Co, and HSBC Bank PLC. South African banks Standard Bank, Nedbank Limited and FirstRand Bank Limited had also appealed against the initial referral, but the court dismissed their cases. 'Single overarching conspiracy' Mohlala said the commission 'cannot accept this outcome in a case involving the most egregious form of anti-competitive conduct'. The commission had said that there was a 'single overarching conspiracy' among the banks. 'The manipulation impacted on the exchange rate of the South African rand, which in turn affected various parts of the South African economy — including imports and exports, foreign direct investment, public and private debt, companies' balance sheets, with the attendant implications for the prices of goods and services and financial assets,' said Mohlala. The commission also alleges that the Competition Appeal Court (CAC) erred in several conclusions of its judgment, saying it created new requirements for jurisdiction and contradicted itself. No constitutional issue Some of the banks that were listed in the initial complaint have opposed the commission's application, criticising the way the commission handled the initial complaint and subsequent litigation. Standard Bank of South Africa is among these, saying the commission ignored important information when formulating its complaint. In an affidavit, Ian Sinton, the former general counsel and current consultant for Standard Bank, said the bank was opposing the commission because 'there is no constitutional issue implicated' and 'it is not in the interests of justice' that leave to appeal be granted. He claimed that the bank had raised several factual issues during the Competition Tribunal phase that were ignored. 'Numerous opportunities have been afforded to the commission to plead a sustainable case against [Standard Bank], and it has failed to do so. Contrary to its obligation of impartiality imposed by section 20 of the Competition Act, the commission has shut its mind to relevant information furnished to it by Standard Bank, including easily verifiable facts which dispose of the case,' said Stinton in court papers. The bank also argues that the commission didn't have jurisdiction to prosecute it because the alleged misconduct did not take place in its local office. 'The commission made out no case at all linking the activities of the Johannesburg branch to any cause of action, and so the deficiencies in alleging subject matter jurisdiction remain exactly as before,' said the bank through its lawyer Martin Versfeld. The lawyer for Bank of America and Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Shawn van der Meulen, has criticised the commission for raising new legal issues that were not brought up during the initial appeal. JPMorgan Chase has also criticised the commission's decision to approach the ConCourt, saying the case 'does not legitimately raise a constitutional issue'. Banks appeal Two of the banks whose tribunal referral was ruled as valid, BNP Paribas and Credit Suisse Securities, have launched their own cases. BNP alleges that the commission has not properly pleaded its revised case. 'By failing to properly plead its case, the commission has fallen short of the requirements imposed on it by the CAC. This raises a constitutional issue in that this court is called on to decide whether the rule of law, enshrined in section 1 of the Constitution, can accommodate a situation in which the commission can exercise its prosecutorial powers in contravention of an order of the CAC, which binds the commission,' said Rudolph Labuschagne, BNP's attorney. Credit Suisse Securities has also taken issue with how the commission initiated its investigation. The commission 'exceeded [its] statutory power and thereby violated the principles of legality and the rule of law. These are quintessential constitutional matters,' said Paul Cleland, the attorney for Credit Suisse Securities. Credit Suisse also takes issue with the appeal decision, saying the CAC failed 'to treat like parties alike in the same proceedings — for no good reason whatsoever'. It believes it should have got an exception, like several other international banks. The bank says this action is 'patently arbitrary and irrational'. 'The CAC order violates the right to equal treatment before the law under section 9 (1) of the Constitution, which 'entitles everybody, at the very least, to equal treatment by our courts of law'.' Due to the similarity of issues being dealt with, the ConCourt has combined all three cases into one hearing. Argument will be heard from 19-22 August. DM
The Citizen
20 hours ago
- The Citizen
‘Unacceptable that SA mines are surrounded by squatter camps'
The study also found a need for global uniformity, including globally comparable wages, extending beyond just living wages. Mining companies operating in South Africa have failed to provide housing for their employees and local communities as required by law. This is according to the recent research conducted by the Bench Marks Foundation. It said that most of the mines are surrounded by informal settlements where mineworkers and host communities reside. 'South African mines are surrounded by squatter camps due to their failure to provide proper, dignified housing for their employees,' said David van Wyk, a researcher for the Bench Marks Foundation. 'For example, we have been calling on a mining firm operating in Marikana, where more than 40 people were killed by security forces, to improve the housing conditions of the people in the area, but to no avail.' Van Wyk said the research also revealed that there was a need for the mining companies operating in the country to strive to bring the mining-affected communities to similar standards with those based in North America and Australia. 'The foundation's latest research, published in our Policy Gap 14, points out that it is unacceptable that South African mines are surrounded by squatter camps (misnamed informal settlements) due to the failure of South African mines to provide proper, dignified housing for their employees. There needs to be global uniformity in working and living conditions,' Van Wyk said. Wages The study also found a need for global uniformity, including globally comparable wages, extending beyond just living wages. It further said that the wage gap between South African and Australian mineworkers is completely unjustifiable. 'The weighted mean wage for the lowest paid categories in mining in the United States is US$16.21 per hour, while in South Africa, the average general mineworker's salary is R177 600 per year, which works out at R91.08 per hour (that is US$4.96 per hour: 30% of the US wage).' According to the study, the mine wage scale model used in South Africa is outdated and derives from apartheid practices. 'It is time to adapt to global best practice,' the document reads. ALSO READ: How SA's old coal mines can offer hope for dying towns Settlements are missing basic services The Mining Affected Communities United in Action (Macua) has welcomed the study. Sabelo Mnguni, Macua national coordinator, said the foundation's findings were in line with what 'we have seen and documented in mining communities across South Africa'. 'Mining-affected communities have been living with this reality for decades. 'The failure of mining companies to provide proper, dignified housing for workers is a direct result of weak enforcement of social and labour plans under the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act, combined with corporate cost-cutting that prioritises profits over people.' He said to make things worse, informal settlements are often without basic services such as clean water, sanitation and electricity. Mnguni said Macua's research showed that up to 70% of mines have failed to meet legally binding social and labour plans commitments on housing and living conditions. 'This is well-documented through our social audit reports and by various community groups, civil society organisations and even Parliament. 'The government must strictly enforce social and labour plans housing provisions and hold mining companies legally accountable for non-compliance, including suspending mining rights where obligations are not met. 'The current proposals in the Act undermine these obligations and try to turn them into discretionary provisions,' said Mnguni. The Minerals Council South Africa did not respond to questions sent yesterday. NOW READ: SA's shrinking mining sector and the policies that brought us here
IOL News
3 days ago
- IOL News
Nedbank sells 21% stake in Ecobank for R1. 8 billion
Nedbank has announced that it has "reached an agreement to sell its 21.2% shareholding in Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) to Bosquet Investments Limited Image: Karen Sandison / Independent Newspapers Nedbank has announced that it has "reached an agreement to sell its 21.2% shareholding in Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) to Bosquet Investments Limited (Bosquet Investments) for a purchase consideration of US$100 million (R1.8 billion)" . Enko Capital is an African-focused asset management group established in 2008. The group manages alternative and traditional investment funds across Africa and has assets under management of Bosquet Investments is the private investment vehicle of Alain Nkontchou, the Managing Partner and co-founder of Enko Capital Management LLP ('Enko Capital'). The bank confirmed the news in a statement to the media on Friday morning, saying the decision "follows the bank's strategic review of the group's financial investment ETI, which as from 30 June 2025, was classified as a non-current asset held for sale in terms of IFRS 5". Nedbank Group Chief Executive Jason Quinn said, "the bank was pleased to have reached this milestone following the board's approval to dispose of the asset". 'Nedbank's decision to sell its ETI investment follows a detailed evaluation of the strategic alignment, financial performance, and long-term value proposition of the investment and is consistent with Nedbank's ongoing efforts to optimise its capital allocation and focus on core growth areas. "This marks the conclusion of a significant chapter in Nedbank's journey with ETI spanning many years" Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Ad loading Quinn added that Nedbank remains committed to its African growth strategy but will now concentrate its efforts in regions where it has operational control. The proposed disposal is subject only to the receipt of the requisite regulatory approvals in the relevant jurisdictions, with no other conditions precedent. The transaction is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2025. 'The sale represents a reset of Nedbank's strategy on the rest of the African continent with a clear focus on the SADC and East Africa regions in businesses Nedbank Group owns and controls, and areas where we can play to our strengths.' IOL Business Get your news on the go, click here to join the IOL News WhatsApp channel
