Making the call on Edmonton Oilers' reaction and recovery to offer-sheet blindside

New York Times

26-03-2025

The Edmonton Oilers were slammed by offer sheet hell last summer, and made the decision not to match.
New general manager Stan Bowman quickly checked down and made two deals to address the situation.
How has it worked out? How much did the Oilers surrender in allowing Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway to sign offer sheets with the St. Louis Blues?
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The sample is always a worry when making claims about trade results, but we are deep into the season. New Oilers Ty Emberson and Vasily Podkolzin have both had an opportunity to prove themselves in Edmonton.
What's the story?
Podkolzin has emerged as a useful player with the Oilers and received a push from the coaching staff that landed him on the No. 2 line with Leon Draisaitl. Playing with the big man at centre, Podkolzin has played 465 minutes, posting 2.19 points per 60 and a goal share of 58 percent. That's a major lift.
Holloway found an immediate feature role on a line with Brayden Schenn. He's scoring 2.36 points per 60 and is helping his line outscore opponents at an impressive 63 percent clip.
Here's a look at the overall scoring numbers for the two men.
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
Holloway is clearly the more productive player, delivering superior offence in a more prominent (two more minutes per game) role.
Podkolzin's totals are solid, impressive considering he was a midsummer acquisition by a team willing to give him up for a middle-round selection. It's also true that he has been on Draisaitl's line for over 50 percent of his five-on-five time this season, so those offensive numbers arrived while playing a complementary role.
Holloway towers over Podkolzin's production. In fact, Holloway was regarded as a tremendous athlete on his draft day, and the worry surrounded his ability to score in the NHL. It's no longer a worry.
Puck IQ separates quality opposition, giving us a chance to not only see the results but also measure them against quality of competition.
Against elites, Holloway has played 25 percent of his overall five-on-five minutes against elites (3:30 per game, implying second-line minutes). His goal share (72 percent) and Dangerous Fenwick (50 percent, it's similar to expected goals) indicate his line is a strong one against elites, and has been running luck while also playing well in 2024-25.
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Meanwhile, Podkolzin has been spending 30 percent of his five-on-five time (3:41 per game, also second-line deployment) against the league's best. His goal share (44 percent) is low, and runs counter to his expected share (58 percent Dangerous Fenwick). Podkolzin's line has been unlucky in those minutes, and those numbers should regress as the season reaches its conclusion and the playoffs begin.
Podkolzin averages 46 seconds per game on the penalty kill; the Oilers' results in those minutes have been positive compared to other penalty-killing forwards.
Holloway spends about 90 seconds per game on the power play and is flourishing. He leads the Blues with 6.7 points per game with the man advantage.
On the weekend, Bowman suggested matching both contracts would have forced the team to make deals that would have stripped down the roster in some important places. The gap between Holloway's cap and Podkolzin's this season is around $1.3 million, a manageable sum for a player of Holloway's talent.
The reasons for Edmonton allowing Holloway to sign with St. Louis may never be known. It isn't reasonable to suggest that cap room was a deciding issue in this case.
Bowman should be credited with finding a capable replacement on short notice and at a low asset cost. Podkolzin aside, the thrust of the Holloway portion of the offer sheet is a clear fail for the Oilers, though.
Broberg is playing big minutes for the Blues. Puck IQ has him playing second-pairing this season.
Against elites, his Dangerous Fenwick is just over 50 percent, but his goal share (11-1) is a scintillating 91 percent. That includes plenty of good fortune, but Broberg has been present and effective in those minutes.
The Blues spent big on Broberg (over $4.5 million AAV), and he was clearly the top target. Management's faith in the player has been repaid handsomely.
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Emberson has been a quality contributor for Edmonton, but at a lower level than Broberg in St. Louis.
Looking at Puck IQ's minutes versus elites, Emberson is playing 24 percent of his minutes versus elites. That compares to Broberg's 28 percent. Emberson is third pairing against the league's best, and owns 41 percent goal share and 46 percent Dangerous Fenwick.
Broberg is easily the class of this group, with a much wider gap than we see between Holloway and Podkolzin.
Broberg is spending 30 seconds a game on the power play and has had some success. He was exceptional in the role with the Bakersfield Condors during his extended AHL time, and that's an area he could grow into as time rolls along.
On the penalty kill, Broberg averages more than a minute on a special-teams group that has had its troubles.
Emberson's strength with the Oilers is his PK presence. He averages just over two minutes per game on the penalty kill and has delivered strong numbers compared to other Oilers defencemen. It's the single biggest contribution he has made in 2024-25.
Emberson's cap hit (under $1 million) is well shy of Broberg's, and Bowman's claim about roster shakeup certainty on matching has some merit in this part of the transaction.
The Blues saw a vulnerable organization, took advantage and struck with impressive precision. Broberg was the primary target, Holloway a pleasant bonus.
One of the favourite online discussions for Oilers fans is naming the most culpable individual in the lead-up to the offer sheets and eventual trades.
The die was cast by December 2023. Daniel Nugent-Bowman's article at The Athletic early that month signaled things had reached a point of no return for Broberg. Ken Holland, general manager at the time, could have dealt the young defenceman and eased any concern about a coming offer sheet.
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Holland once championed Broberg, drafting him as one of his first major moves when arriving in Edmonton. He then proceeded to block the youngster at every available turn. Darnell Nurse was already playing left defence for Edmonton, but Holland acquired Brett Kulak and Mattias Ekholm during the years that followed, effectively leaving Broberg on the outside looking in.
Holloway's exit was unnecessary. The club could have matched the money, but chose not to do so. The young winger may have been influenced to sign with St. Louis by the July 1 activity by acting GM Jeff Jackson. Edmonton signed veteran wingers Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson, and re-signed centre Adam Henrique, effectively cutting off NHL jobs that could have fallen to Holloway in a fashion similar to Holland's actions with Broberg's possible job options in the NHL.
Bowman chose to let both players go, his recent comments suggesting he believed the team would have to be partially dismantled in order to accommodate the two new contracts for Broberg and Holloway.
No matter the reasons, it's not a good look for the organization. The Oilers were blindsided, caught unaware by an innovative and progressive organization.
There's a lesson here for Edmonton's management. Their actions this coming summer and in the years ahead will inform fans about how these hard lessons impacted the team. Oilers fans should hope the dual offer sheets and eventual loss of two quality players were effective in changing behaviour.
(Photo of Vasily Podkolzin: Danny Wild / Imagn Images)