Trump's tariff chaos, briefly explained
Welcome to The Logoff. Donald Trump paused military aid to Ukraine on Monday night, a freeze that would fully undercut Ukraine's position ahead of planned peace talks with Russia. We'll keep tracking that conflict, but today I'm focusing on the chaos surrounding Trump's on-again, off-again tariffs. To be clear, they're still on — for now. And if they stay on, they will have major impacts for the global order and for your finances.
What's the latest: Trump hit Canada, Mexico, and China with new tariffs Tuesday. Importers will now pay a 25 percent tax on Mexican and Canadian products (10 percent on Canadian energy). Trump also increased tariffs on goods from China from 10 percent to 20 percent.
Canada already responded with 25 percent tariffs on certain US goods, China announced retaliation against US farm goods and tech companies, and Mexico is promising to respond in the coming days.
What's next? Dear reader, I wish I could tell you. At noon, Trump threatened to further increase tariffs on Canadian goods as a punishment for their retaliation. But later this afternoon, Trump's commerce secretary said that relief for Mexico and Canada could see their tariffs reduced — though probably not eliminated — as soon as tomorrow. (My colleague Andrew Prokop broke down two major questions about what's next for Trump's tariffs here.)
How would a trade war affect me? If the tariffs persist, expect to pay more for a long, long list of goods — everything from gas to food to new houses — as importers pass on the taxes to consumers. And if the trade war escalates, expect prices to keep climbing along with it.
What does this mean for the world? If the tariffs stay in place (or escalate), it threatens to unwind a global system of free trade, replacing it with a renewed push for protectionism. If Trump changes course tomorrow and dials back tariffs on Canada and Mexico, it may limit the economic damage, but it will have further strained ties with two of the country's closest allies. We'll keep you posted.
And with that, it's time to log off. Yes, you genuinely can log off of politics for the day. I know Trump is giving a big speech tonight, but we'll recap it tomorrow morning on Vox. With the time you save, might I suggest you watch the Oscar-winning live-action short film? I'm Not a Robot is a 22-minute gem that's ultimately about what it means to be human. I won't say any more than that, but I hope you enjoy it. I'll see you back here tomorrow. See More: Donald Trump
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Market share gains, enrollment, and continued demand for digital learning solutions fueled the higher education business, which saw revenue jump 14.1% year over year. Revenue for the K-12 segment, however, declined 1.4%. These two business units make up the bulk of McGraw Hill's business. The smaller international business noted weakness, with an 11.7% decrease in revenue, while sales in the global professional business held steady. For 2026, McGraw Hill sees revenue in a range of $1.98 billion to $2.04 billion. Listen to the earnings call here. Quantum Computing stock slips as losses accelerate Quantum Computing (QUBT) CEO Yuping Huang said that the company continued to make progress in growing commercial traction in the second quarter, but the industry is still focused on reaching technology milestones. Second quarter revenue totaled approximately $61,000, compared to $183,000 in the same period a year ago. The company reported a net loss of $36.5 million, or $0.26 per share. In Q2 2024, Quantum Computing posted a net loss of $5.2 million, or $0.06 per share. Quantum Computing stock fell 2.3% after hours in what's been a whipsaw year for quantum stocks. In June, the stock spiked 25% in one day after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said quantum computing "is reaching an inflection point." But the industry is still in its infancy. The other big quantum player, Rigetti Computing (RGTI), reported a technology breakthrough in its recent results but also big losses. "We are talking of a market that's hundreds of billions of dollars a decade or two from now," Rigetti CEO Subodh Kulkarni told Market Domination Overtime. "But right now, we are clearly in the R&D stage. We clearly need to perfect the technology to get to that big milestone in about four years, which we call quantum advantage." Read more about quantum computing here. Quantum Computing (QUBT) CEO Yuping Huang said that the company continued to make progress in growing commercial traction in the second quarter, but the industry is still focused on reaching technology milestones. Second quarter revenue totaled approximately $61,000, compared to $183,000 in the same period a year ago. The company reported a net loss of $36.5 million, or $0.26 per share. In Q2 2024, Quantum Computing posted a net loss of $5.2 million, or $0.06 per share. Quantum Computing stock fell 2.3% after hours in what's been a whipsaw year for quantum stocks. In June, the stock spiked 25% in one day after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said quantum computing "is reaching an inflection point." But the industry is still in its infancy. The other big quantum player, Rigetti Computing (RGTI), reported a technology breakthrough in its recent results but also big losses. "We are talking of a market that's hundreds of billions of dollars a decade or two from now," Rigetti CEO Subodh Kulkarni told Market Domination Overtime. "But right now, we are clearly in the R&D stage. We clearly need to perfect the technology to get to that big milestone in about four years, which we call quantum advantage." Read more about quantum computing here. Applied Materials stock sinks as policy uncertainty weighs on Q4 guidance Applied Materials (AMAT) recorded an earnings beat for the July quarter but said that the "dynamic" policy environment is creating uncertainty for the business. That led the chip equipment maker to issue a revenue forecast of $6.7 billion for the fourth quarter, below what the Street was expecting. 'We are expecting a decline in revenue in the fourth quarter driven by both digestion of capacity in China and nonlinear demand from leading-edge customers given market concentration and fab timing,' CFO Brice Hill said. 'We are navigating and adapting to the near-term uncertainties by leveraging our robust supply chain, global manufacturing footprint and deep customer relationships.' The company, whose clients include Taiwan Semiconductor and Intel, posted record revenue of $7.30 billion in Q3, up 8% year over year, surpassing estimates for $7.2 billion. Earnings per share of $2.48 also beat estimates by $0.12. Applied Materials stock fell 11% in after-hours trading. Read more here. Applied Materials (AMAT) recorded an earnings beat for the July quarter but said that the "dynamic" policy environment is creating uncertainty for the business. That led the chip equipment maker to issue a revenue forecast of $6.7 billion for the fourth quarter, below what the Street was expecting. 'We are expecting a decline in revenue in the fourth quarter driven by both digestion of capacity in China and nonlinear demand from leading-edge customers given market concentration and fab timing,' CFO Brice Hill said. 'We are navigating and adapting to the near-term uncertainties by leveraging our robust supply chain, global manufacturing footprint and deep customer relationships.' The company, whose clients include Taiwan Semiconductor and Intel, posted record revenue of $7.30 billion in Q3, up 8% year over year, surpassing estimates for $7.2 billion. Earnings per share of $2.48 also beat estimates by $0.12. Applied Materials stock fell 11% in after-hours trading. Read more here. Earnings and revenue beats lift Dillard's stock Dillard's (DDS) stock rose 7% on Thursday after the department store chain reported revenue and profit beats for the quarter. Net income fell to $72.8 million compared to $74.5 million a year ago, but earnings per share rose $0.07 year over year after the Arkansas-based company bought back stock. Revenue of $1.53 billion beat Wall Street estimates of $1.52 billion, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Earnings per share of $4.66 also topped estimates of $4.00 per share. Total retail sales were flat, with strength in juniors' and children's apparel as well as ladies' accessories and lingerie. The weakest performing category was home and furniture. Other major retailers, including Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Macy's (M), will report second quarter results in the coming weeks, providing a more in-depth look into consumer spending habits. Dillard's stock is up 23% year to date. It has climbed 78% since its April 8 low. Dillard's (DDS) stock rose 7% on Thursday after the department store chain reported revenue and profit beats for the quarter. Net income fell to $72.8 million compared to $74.5 million a year ago, but earnings per share rose $0.07 year over year after the Arkansas-based company bought back stock. Revenue of $1.53 billion beat Wall Street estimates of $1.52 billion, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Earnings per share of $4.66 also topped estimates of $4.00 per share. Total retail sales were flat, with strength in juniors' and children's apparel as well as ladies' accessories and lingerie. The weakest performing category was home and furniture. Other major retailers, including Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Macy's (M), will report second quarter results in the coming weeks, providing a more in-depth look into consumer spending habits. Dillard's stock is up 23% year to date. It has climbed 78% since its April 8 low. Advance Auto Parts stock sinks 14% on gloomy financial outlook Advance Auto Parts (AAP) stock sank 14% on Thursday morning after issuing a downbeat profit forecast. The Raleigh, N.C.-based company beat Wall Street's earnings estimates but lowered its full-year earnings per share outlook to $1.20-$2.20 from its previous range of $1.50-$2.50. Advance Auto Parts attributed this change to a higher net interest expense related to its recent senior notes offering. In the earnings call, executives noted that approximately 40% of the company's cost of goods is exposed to tariffs at a blended rate of 30%. During the quarter, Advance Auto Parts saw lower transactions but higher tickets, as prices increased by 2%. The company noted that its competitors are also raising prices in a similar fashion. "If you look at the maybe lower to mid-income cohorts, they are more pressured than others right now," CFO Ryan Grimsland said about the price impacts of tariffs. "The wages aren't necessarily fully keeping up with some of the inflation that's in there. And so there are trade-offs that they're making. And we're still seeing that. It'd be interesting to see how that plays out in the back half of the year." Advance Auto Parts (AAP) stock sank 14% on Thursday morning after issuing a downbeat profit forecast. The Raleigh, N.C.-based company beat Wall Street's earnings estimates but lowered its full-year earnings per share outlook to $1.20-$2.20 from its previous range of $1.50-$2.50. Advance Auto Parts attributed this change to a higher net interest expense related to its recent senior notes offering. In the earnings call, executives noted that approximately 40% of the company's cost of goods is exposed to tariffs at a blended rate of 30%. During the quarter, Advance Auto Parts saw lower transactions but higher tickets, as prices increased by 2%. The company noted that its competitors are also raising prices in a similar fashion. "If you look at the maybe lower to mid-income cohorts, they are more pressured than others right now," CFO Ryan Grimsland said about the price impacts of tariffs. "The wages aren't necessarily fully keeping up with some of the inflation that's in there. And so there are trade-offs that they're making. And we're still seeing that. It'd be interesting to see how that plays out in the back half of the year." China's tops quarterly revenue estimates on steady e-commerce demand Chinese e-commerce giant (JD) rose 1% in premarket trading after the company beat estimates for quarterly revenue on Thursday, highlighting robust shopping traffic. However, profits halved year over year. Total revenue rose 22.4% to 356.66 billion yuan ($49.73 billion) during the second quarter, above analysts' average estimate of 331.63 billion yuan. Profit fell by more than 50% to 6.2 billion yuan ($864 million) from 12.6 billion yuan a year earlier as the company invests in new businesses such as food delivery, competing with Meituan (MPNGY) and Alibaba (BABA). Reuters reports: Read more here. Chinese e-commerce giant (JD) rose 1% in premarket trading after the company beat estimates for quarterly revenue on Thursday, highlighting robust shopping traffic. However, profits halved year over year. Total revenue rose 22.4% to 356.66 billion yuan ($49.73 billion) during the second quarter, above analysts' average estimate of 331.63 billion yuan. Profit fell by more than 50% to 6.2 billion yuan ($864 million) from 12.6 billion yuan a year earlier as the company invests in new businesses such as food delivery, competing with Meituan (MPNGY) and Alibaba (BABA). Reuters reports: Read more here. Tapestry forecasts annual profit below estimates on tariff pain Tapestry (TPR) stock fell 8% before the bell on Thursday after the Coach handbag maker forecast annual profit below estimates. The company cited higher costs due to tariffs that have hit its margins. Reuters reports: Read more here. Tapestry (TPR) stock fell 8% before the bell on Thursday after the Coach handbag maker forecast annual profit below estimates. The company cited higher costs due to tariffs that have hit its margins. Reuters reports: Read more here. Lenovo stock drops despite profit beat Lenono Group LTD., the world's top PC maker, reported better-than-expected profit on PC sales but the stock dropped on worries over its cloud division. From Bloomberg Intelligence: Read more here. Lenono Group LTD., the world's top PC maker, reported better-than-expected profit on PC sales but the stock dropped on worries over its cloud division. From Bloomberg Intelligence: Read more here. Deere's third-quarter profit falls, stock drops (Reuters) – Farm-equipment maker Deere & Co reported a lower third-quarter profit and tightened its annual profit forecast on Thursday, pressured by headwinds from U.S. tariffs and muted demand. ... Deere's net income in the third quarter came in at $1.29 billion, or $4.75 per share, compared with $1.73 billion, or $6.29 per share, a year earlier. Overall, quarterly sales fell about 9% to $12.02 billion from a year ago. Read more here. (Reuters) – Farm-equipment maker Deere & Co reported a lower third-quarter profit and tightened its annual profit forecast on Thursday, pressured by headwinds from U.S. tariffs and muted demand. ... Deere's net income in the third quarter came in at $1.29 billion, or $4.75 per share, compared with $1.73 billion, or $6.29 per share, a year earlier. Overall, quarterly sales fell about 9% to $12.02 billion from a year ago. Read more here. Birkenstock beats profit estimates on strong full-price footwear sales Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here.
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Tech it down a notch
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) -TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist Wall Street slumped on Tuesday, dragged down by weakness in some of the big tech companies that have led the charge to new highs this year, as investors hunker down ahead of a keynote speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell later this week. More on that below. In my column today I look at the cagey dance between Donald Trump and Wall Street - the market knows it has the power to rein in some of the president's policy excesses, but isn't wielding it. Not yet, anyway. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. 1. Trump says Putin may not want to make a deal on Ukraine 2. Switzerland ready to host Putin for any Geneva peacetalks, minister says 3. S&P affirms 'AA+' credit rating for US, cites impact oftariff 4. Trump's interest rate demands put 'fiscal dominance' inmarket spotlight 5. AI will replace most humans, but then what? Today's Key Market Moves * STOCKS: Wall Street in the red, with the Nasdaq leadingthe way, down 1.5%. The Dow ekes out a new high of 45,207 pointsbefore easing. Europe gains, Asia and EM in the red. * SHARES/SECTORS: Intel up 7% after Softbank takes $2 blnstake. Nvidia -3.5%, its biggest fall in four months, pushingthe tech sector down nearly 2%. * FX: Canadian dollar falls 0.5% to 1.3855/$ on softinflation data. Brazil's real down 1.2% to 5.50/$, another downday and its biggest fall in six weeks. * BONDS: Treasury yields ease from recent highs, down 4bps at the long end to flatten the curve. UK 30-year yield hitsnew 27-year high, but ends the day lower too. * COMMODITIES: Oil falls again, WTI crude futures down1.7% to lowest close since June 2 at $62.35/bbl. Today's Talking Points: * Peace in our time? Investors digested the extraordinary summit between U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and a phalanx of European leaders in the White House on Monday. Did it move the dial much on the prospects of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, or a deal to end the war? Optimism around Trump's promise of security guarantees for Ukraine in the future buoyed European markets on Tuesday. But that evaporated as the U.S. session rolled on, as Trump told Fox News he thinks Russian President Vladimir Putin may not want to make a deal after all. There may be no immediate direct impact on major equity, bond, or currency markets from the conflict. But prolonged war on Europe's doorstep, fractured ties between the US and Europe, and a fickle relationship between Trump and Putin can't be good in the long term. * Retail therapy. Some of America's biggest retailers report second-quarter earnings this week, shining a light on the health of the U.S. consumer and, by extension, the economy at large. Home Depot reported on Tuesday; Lowe's, Target, and TJX release results on Wednesday; and Walmart is out on Thursday. There are conflicting signals coming from the U.S. consumer. By some measures, household consumption flat-lined in the first half of the year, but other indicators show consumer spending is the biggest contributor to GDP growth. The rich are spending, but the bottom 50% are struggling. The S&P 500's consumer discretionary sector is flat this year, and the consumer staples index is up 6%. Both are lagging the broader index, which is up 8%, and the IT and communications sectors, which are both up around 13%. * Interest rate decisions. The central banks of New Zealand, Indonesia, and China announce their latest policy decisions on Wednesday. Two of the three are expected to stand pat, and one is expected to cut borrowing costs. The People's Bank of China is expected to keep benchmark one- and five-year lending rates unchanged for the third straight month at 3.5% and 5.5%, respectively. Although the economy needs more support, the central bank may want to explore structural policies aimed at specific sectors rather than broad-based monetary easing. For now. This has helped propel a recovery in the yuan, which was plumbing 17-year lows at the depths of the "Liberation Day" tariff turmoil in April. Since then, the PBOC has only lowered borrowing costs once, by 10 basis points, and has fixed the yuan higher in 16 of the last 19 weeks. Markets, Trump in delicate policy dance U.S. President Donald Trump has faced little opposition in his drive to rip up the global economic rulebook, whether from his fellow Republicans, political opponents, or institutional guardrails. The only exception has been "the market." But now even investors are holding their fire, enabling more risk to build up in the financial system. Wall Street's reaction to Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2 was so ferocious that the president did something he had rarely done: he backed down. Trillions of dollars were wiped off the value of U.S. stocks amid a 10% nosedive from April 3-4. The only two-day selloffs since the 1930s that were bigger occurred during the Second World War, "Black Monday" in 1987, the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, and the pandemic in 2020. The stock market bottomed out on April 7 after Trump paused most of his country-specific tariffs. Wall Street has not looked back since, with the S&P 500 rebounding 35% to an all-time high. This episode suggests that "the market" is one of the few true checks on Trump's apparent pursuit to reshape the U.S. – and indeed the world – economy. The only problem is that the president has continued to pursue unorthodox policies in recent months - including challenging the independence of the Federal Reserve, firing statisticians, and slapping tariffs on countries for non-economic reasons – and investors have failed to tap the brakes. FED PUT The so-called "Trump put" -- the idea that the president won't let the markets fall too far -- is essentially a funhouse mirror version of the famous "Fed put," the long-held belief that, in the event of a crisis, the central bank will step in to restore stability. Trump seemingly did just that in April, but it was to clean up a mess of his own making. And one could argue that it was actually investors who came to the economy's rescue by putting pressure on the president to reconsider policies considered ill-advised by most economists. Trump and markets are therefore now in a curious dance. Investors appear to believe that markets can ultimately stop Trump from pushing the envelope too far on tariffs or other policies. But as a result, investors are not overreacting – or reacting at all – to the latest controversies around the Bureau of Labor Statistics firing, his attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, his pressure on Intel's CEO to resign, or the outsized tariffs slapped on Brazil and India. This, in turn, has powered the markets to new record highs, emboldening Trump to push the envelope even further. RISK ON So even though the market has the power to rein in the president's economic policy excesses, it's not using it. Why hasn't the market pushed back? As the cliche goes, equity investors are paid to be optimistic. It's in their interest to keep the train hurtling along, provided there aren't any immediate obstacles to derail it. There are, of course, a few pretty large hurdles on the horizon for the U.S. economy, including the highest tariffs since the 1930s and some of the biggest budget deficits since World War II outside of crisis periods. But until these or other issues present an immediate economic threat, markets can choose to ignore them. By under-reacting to Trump's unorthodox policies, markets may not only delay the day of reckoning but also amplify the potential impact. Why? Genuine economic and geopolitical paradigm shifts are under way, and investors are not pricing in the attendant risk. Nobody knows what the ultimate impact of these shifts will be, but we do know that with greater uncertainty comes greater downside risk. Yet equity volatility is the lowest it has been this year, and even in the bond market – not known for its optimism – volatility is the lowest in three and a half years, while U.S. corporate bond spreads are the tightest since 1998. Ultimately, the market is unlikely to call Trump's bluff until something truly unexpected or extreme hits. In the meantime, investors can justify this nonchalance by saying that corporate earnings growth is solid, AI enthusiasm is high, economic growth remains decent, unemployment is low, and consumers are still spending. Wall Street is choosing not to put on the brakes, meaning this train will continue rolling on. Whether it's heading for a collision is an open question. What could move markets tomorrow? * New Zealand interest rate decision * Indonesia interest rate decision * China interest rate decision * Japan machinery orders (June) * Japan trade (July) * UK inflation (July) * Germany producer price inflation (July) * Euro zone inflation (July, final) * U.S. Treasury auctions $16 billion of 20-year bonds * U.S. earnings, including retailers TJX Companies, Lowe's,and Target Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Rod Nickel)
