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Tasmania politics in turmoil

Tasmania politics in turmoil

Samantha Donovan: And staying in Tasmania, the political situation there remains unclear this evening after the parliament passed a motion of no confidence in the Liberal Premier, Jeremy Rockliff, yesterday. The motion was brought forward by the Labor opposition leader, Dean Winter, who'd raised concerns about Mr Rockliff's management of the economy and infrastructure and his plans to sell off state assets. Plenty of Tasmanians rang in to ABC Radio today with their thoughts on the situation.
Opinion: This is not in the interests of the people of Tasmania.
Opinion: Yes, I certainly do. What an election. I like that way. It's my choice. It's not their choice who does what. I'd want to change the government.
Opinion: I think they've been disgraceful.
Opinion: I'd like to see a change of government, but I'd like to see the stadium continue.
Opinion: The amount of money that would be swallowed up in a stadium would fund our health, our decrepit health system for months. That's it, money gone.
Opinion: If we go to an election, the one thing I'd really say is I hope the Premier is not part of that election. He was the one that had the no confidence vote against them. He should have the dignity to resign.
Opinion: My vote would support the candidate who doesn't support the stadium. I feel we've got far greater pressing needs at the moment. I've been on the public housing list for two years and there's over 5,000 people waiting and it's growing daily.
Samantha Donovan: For the latest on the political situation in Tasmania, I spoke to the ABC's state political reporter, Adam Langenberg. Adam, is another election in Tasmania now inevitable?
Adam Langenberg: Not inevitable, Sam, but everyone in the political sphere here says it's the most likely scenario. People I've been speaking to today say, you know, 75 or 80% likelihood that we head to an election. Of course, there are other scenarios that can play out. The governor can ask another Liberal MP to try and form government. That's something that the party room has not backed in. They say they'll back Jeremy Rockliff to the hilt and it's either an election or the governor tries to ask Labor to form minority government. That's something the Greens here have said they're open to working with Labor, but Labor leader Dean Winter, who moved this no confidence motion, he says under no circumstances will Labor govern with the Greens. So, it's a standoff and means that everyone thinks the most likely scenario is that election, which won't be called until at least Tuesday, if it does happen.
Samantha Donovan: Adam, why is Tuesday the significant day?
Adam Langenberg: Well, that's because Tasmanian Parliament needs to be recalled so a supply bill can be passed. The Tasmanian Parliament was in the middle of debating the budget, which hasn't passed. It means the Tasmanian public servants won't be paid after August. What that means is if there's going to be an election, there won't be a supply bill passed until well after that. So, there needed to be a mechanism to get them paid in the short term and that's what the supply bill is. And then after that, the Premier will go to the governor and ask for an early election.
Samantha Donovan: Do you think the Labor leader, Dean Winter, fully appreciated what he was setting off with this no confidence motion?
Adam Langenberg: That he didn't is an argument that's been prosecuted by the Liberals all week. They say they were just trying to change the Liberal leader and that's not something that they would tolerate. But Labor insists they meant what they did. They knew there were lots of scenarios. Maybe their preferred one might have been for Jeremy Rockliff just to have resigned. Well, they say they knew when they moved this motion, the consequences of it, and that it could mean that we head to an election and they were OK with that. Dean Winter has said repeatedly that he can't sit idly by and let Premier Jeremy Rockliff ruin the state. That's his argument. That debt and deficit are heading the wrong way in Tasmania, that the government can't manage major infrastructure projects, that it's going to sell off government businesses and the state can't afford it. So, Dean Winter says he knew full well what he was doing and now it's up to Tasmanians.
Samantha Donovan: Adam, if there is another election, do you think Tasmanian voters are going to punish Labor for sending them back to the polls?
Adam Langenberg: Well, Dean Winter's got five weeks or six weeks, depending on how long things take to get underway, to convince Tasmanians that it was the fault of the Premier that we're heading here. This is an argument that he's been making already, that the Premier didn't have the supply and confidence agreements he needed to be able to govern and Labor was just doing what any good opposition should do and holding the government to account. That's an argument he's going to have to make to try and win over Tasmanians. Now, we know that some of the party's biggest vote winners, historically, might not contest this time around. Rebecca White in Lyons has already gone to the federal parliament. It looks like Speaker Michelle O'Byrne in Bass might not contest the election. There's two big vote winners for Labor out of the picture, if that eventuates. So they've got their work cut out for them in growing from 10 seats that they hold currently, let alone getting to the 18 required for majority government. But, yeah, a big task in selling to Tasmanians exactly why they've done what they've done. That's something that's sort of got lost in the noise of the last two days because it's just truly remarkable to see a Premier ousted in the way that he has been.
Samantha Donovan: The backers and fans of the long-awaited Tassie AFL club are worried it might fold because of this economic turmoil, even before it really gets off the ground. What's the worst-case political scenario for the Tassie Devils club?
Adam Langenberg: I think the club will be hoping that there isn't a minority situation where the only way that one of the major parties can form government is in a coalition with an anti-stadium group of independents or the Greens. Because the first thing on their list when they're looking to form government will be, please don't build a stadium in Hobart. That's a reality that the club is really, really concerned about. Now, Labor have already said that they will not drop the stadium and not drop their support for the club going forward. And the Liberals have said the same thing. But in the harsh reality of post-election, when you need to trade to form power, what happens? And that's a real concern for football fans and the football club. And only time will tell exactly how that works out.
Samantha Donovan: Adam Langenberg is the ABC's state political reporter in Tasmania.
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