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ABC News
4 days ago
- Politics
- ABC News
A feeling of calm before the storm descends on Tasmanian politics following motion of no-confidence in Jeremy Rockliff
After a wild few days in the crazy world that is Tasmanian politics, Friday felt eerily quiet. For some, it was a reprieve, a day to breathe and reflect on what had just happened and what might happen next. For others, it was more like the kind of silence before a jump scare. If the past few days were a horror movie with the final act being the toppling of the state's leader, then the weekend is a thriller. An uncomfortable wait in suspense with the knowledge that something unknown is just around the corner. But there are so many scenarios that can play out. What Tasmanians know is that by the end of next week something will have changed in the state's political landscape. The Liberals will still be in charge but with a different leader at the helm — someone like Eric Abetz or Michael Ferguson. Or the world will have turned upside down and Labor Leader Dean Winter would have figured out a way to govern with just 10 MPs, leaning on the support of the crossbench and the Greens. The last option is we're in election mode for the second time within 18 months. Tuesday is D-Day. If things are still at status quo and the supply bills — necessary for public servants to continue to be paid — pass, then Jeremy Rockliff will take a trip to see the Governor. The Governor will consider all of the above options. At this stage, it appears most politicians are resigned to an election being called. But three days is a long time in Tasmanian politics, and a lot can happen. For example, the Liberals — whose war chests are no doubt unprepared for an election or who are worried about losing their seats — could roll Mr Rockliff. Labor, and some members of the crossbench, say that should happen, or Mr Rockliff should fall on his sword and resign. Even fellow Liberal Senator Jonathon Duniam suggested as much on Friday morning. But how likely is that to happen? It is understood some, like Mr Abetz, have already done the numbers and come up short. There's also an understanding in the party that while Mr Abetz certainly has his supporters, he's not everyone's cup of tea. Some worry he'll struggle to get support from the crossbench needed to continue governing, and fear he's too polarising to lead the party to a state election. The other two real contenders are Treasurer Guy Barnett, the architect of last week's budget paper which inspired the motion of no-confidence, and Michael Ferguson who was already banished to the backbench over the Spirit of Tasmania fiasco. There doesn't seem to be a stand-out candidate amongst them. And there's something Jeremy Rockliff's opponents may have underestimated: people really like him. Because if there was one thing everyone could agree on during the motion of no-confidence, Mr Rockliff is a nice guy. Of course. the motion wasn't about his personality — after all nice is great, but it's not enough to lead a state. Nice doesn't pay off the almost $11 billion in debt that Tasmania is expected to rack up in four years' time and it hasn't helped build the berth for the new Spirit of Tasmania ships on time. Then there's the stadium cap. It is unlikely that the average Tasmanian heard "$375 million" — on capital when it was mentioned — "and not a red cent more" and realised it included hundreds of millions of dollars in borrowings. It might not technically be able to be called a broken promise yet, but, for the general public it's the vibe of the thing and the vibe is off. Not to mention Mr Rockliff's plans to cut the public service and sell off public assets were decidedly controversial. There are many valid reasons that Labor and the crossbench had when they spoke about why they were supporting the motion of no-confidence in Mr Rockliff. And that should not be forgotten. But that niceness, and loyalty, means fellow Liberals have decided that they'll back Mr Rockliff's leadership to the hilt. Even if it means an early election. The other aspect is that the party seems to believe that Mr Rockliff leaving won't be the fix. There is a view that Labor and the crossbench will eventually come after whoever is next. If Tasmanians do head to the polls, some of it is because Labor won't explore the third option: forming a minority government. Greens Leader Rosalie Woodruff was out on Friday, once again offering Mr Winter a quick path to the premiership, or at the very least a conversation. But Mr Winter can't say it enough (apparently) that there is no world in which he leans on the Greens for any kind of support. While Dr Woodruff may argue that the parties' values are more aligned, Mr Winter sees the Greens as toxic for Labor. So if Labor doesn't want to govern, why did it raise the no-confidence motion? Some have suggested (tablespoon of salt because it's mostly Liberals) that Mr Winter simply wanted to knock off a more popular opponent. Whatever the motivation, it's done now and there is a very real chance Mr Winter will be heading to his first election as leader. It's unlikely to be an easy one. While Labor is blaming the Liberals for the election and the Liberals are blaming Labor, the public is blaming all politicians, in particular the major parties. Labor's copping blame for starting the whole mess in the first place. It was playing with fire when it challenged the crossbench MPs, who swiftly rose to the occasion. Mr Winter may have been hoping the premier would backdown and resign, but he would've known that an election was a serious possibility. They went through something similar back in November, when the Greens raised a no-confidence motion and Mr Rockliff declared that he'd ask for an election to be called if it passed. Turns out he wasn't bluffing. Labor's also going to have to face up to the stadium issue. The anti-stadium crowd knows Labor is pro-stadium and team, and won't trust it. While the pro-stadium crowd is enraged that Labor is putting it all in jeopardy — the Liberals are somehow escaping this criticism. Meanwhile, the Liberals are getting the blame because yes — as Labor has pointed out — they are choosing to seek an election instead of a new leader, backed into a corner or not. The fact is, the blood was in the water. People were getting frustrated with the Liberal government. But as angry as people were with a government that's been in power for 11 years, the general sentiment seems to be that it is just too soon for another election Mr Winter's got five weeks to convince Tasmanians he made the right move in toppling the premier, rather than letting the government bleed out a little longer.
ABC News
4 days ago
- Politics
- ABC News
Tasmania politics in turmoil
Samantha Donovan: And staying in Tasmania, the political situation there remains unclear this evening after the parliament passed a motion of no confidence in the Liberal Premier, Jeremy Rockliff, yesterday. The motion was brought forward by the Labor opposition leader, Dean Winter, who'd raised concerns about Mr Rockliff's management of the economy and infrastructure and his plans to sell off state assets. Plenty of Tasmanians rang in to ABC Radio today with their thoughts on the situation. Opinion: This is not in the interests of the people of Tasmania. Opinion: Yes, I certainly do. What an election. I like that way. It's my choice. It's not their choice who does what. I'd want to change the government. Opinion: I think they've been disgraceful. Opinion: I'd like to see a change of government, but I'd like to see the stadium continue. Opinion: The amount of money that would be swallowed up in a stadium would fund our health, our decrepit health system for months. That's it, money gone. Opinion: If we go to an election, the one thing I'd really say is I hope the Premier is not part of that election. He was the one that had the no confidence vote against them. He should have the dignity to resign. Opinion: My vote would support the candidate who doesn't support the stadium. I feel we've got far greater pressing needs at the moment. I've been on the public housing list for two years and there's over 5,000 people waiting and it's growing daily. Samantha Donovan: For the latest on the political situation in Tasmania, I spoke to the ABC's state political reporter, Adam Langenberg. Adam, is another election in Tasmania now inevitable? Adam Langenberg: Not inevitable, Sam, but everyone in the political sphere here says it's the most likely scenario. People I've been speaking to today say, you know, 75 or 80% likelihood that we head to an election. Of course, there are other scenarios that can play out. The governor can ask another Liberal MP to try and form government. That's something that the party room has not backed in. They say they'll back Jeremy Rockliff to the hilt and it's either an election or the governor tries to ask Labor to form minority government. That's something the Greens here have said they're open to working with Labor, but Labor leader Dean Winter, who moved this no confidence motion, he says under no circumstances will Labor govern with the Greens. So, it's a standoff and means that everyone thinks the most likely scenario is that election, which won't be called until at least Tuesday, if it does happen. Samantha Donovan: Adam, why is Tuesday the significant day? Adam Langenberg: Well, that's because Tasmanian Parliament needs to be recalled so a supply bill can be passed. The Tasmanian Parliament was in the middle of debating the budget, which hasn't passed. It means the Tasmanian public servants won't be paid after August. What that means is if there's going to be an election, there won't be a supply bill passed until well after that. So, there needed to be a mechanism to get them paid in the short term and that's what the supply bill is. And then after that, the Premier will go to the governor and ask for an early election. Samantha Donovan: Do you think the Labor leader, Dean Winter, fully appreciated what he was setting off with this no confidence motion? Adam Langenberg: That he didn't is an argument that's been prosecuted by the Liberals all week. They say they were just trying to change the Liberal leader and that's not something that they would tolerate. But Labor insists they meant what they did. They knew there were lots of scenarios. Maybe their preferred one might have been for Jeremy Rockliff just to have resigned. Well, they say they knew when they moved this motion, the consequences of it, and that it could mean that we head to an election and they were OK with that. Dean Winter has said repeatedly that he can't sit idly by and let Premier Jeremy Rockliff ruin the state. That's his argument. That debt and deficit are heading the wrong way in Tasmania, that the government can't manage major infrastructure projects, that it's going to sell off government businesses and the state can't afford it. So, Dean Winter says he knew full well what he was doing and now it's up to Tasmanians. Samantha Donovan: Adam, if there is another election, do you think Tasmanian voters are going to punish Labor for sending them back to the polls? Adam Langenberg: Well, Dean Winter's got five weeks or six weeks, depending on how long things take to get underway, to convince Tasmanians that it was the fault of the Premier that we're heading here. This is an argument that he's been making already, that the Premier didn't have the supply and confidence agreements he needed to be able to govern and Labor was just doing what any good opposition should do and holding the government to account. That's an argument he's going to have to make to try and win over Tasmanians. Now, we know that some of the party's biggest vote winners, historically, might not contest this time around. Rebecca White in Lyons has already gone to the federal parliament. It looks like Speaker Michelle O'Byrne in Bass might not contest the election. There's two big vote winners for Labor out of the picture, if that eventuates. So they've got their work cut out for them in growing from 10 seats that they hold currently, let alone getting to the 18 required for majority government. But, yeah, a big task in selling to Tasmanians exactly why they've done what they've done. That's something that's sort of got lost in the noise of the last two days because it's just truly remarkable to see a Premier ousted in the way that he has been. Samantha Donovan: The backers and fans of the long-awaited Tassie AFL club are worried it might fold because of this economic turmoil, even before it really gets off the ground. What's the worst-case political scenario for the Tassie Devils club? Adam Langenberg: I think the club will be hoping that there isn't a minority situation where the only way that one of the major parties can form government is in a coalition with an anti-stadium group of independents or the Greens. Because the first thing on their list when they're looking to form government will be, please don't build a stadium in Hobart. That's a reality that the club is really, really concerned about. Now, Labor have already said that they will not drop the stadium and not drop their support for the club going forward. And the Liberals have said the same thing. But in the harsh reality of post-election, when you need to trade to form power, what happens? And that's a real concern for football fans and the football club. And only time will tell exactly how that works out. Samantha Donovan: Adam Langenberg is the ABC's state political reporter in Tasmania.
News.com.au
6 days ago
- Politics
- News.com.au
Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff is facing a no-confidence vote on Thursday
Tasmanian parliament will resume its debate on the no-confidence motion against Premier Jeremy Rockliff, which could see him toppled or a snap election called. Opposition Leader Dean Winter tabled the motion, citing the Premier's handling of the state's ailing economy, the handing of the Spirit of Tasmania replacement ferries and the AFL stadium project. MPs debated the motion for about 10 hours before parliament was suspended and Wednesday and will resume on Thursday at 10am. A majority of the 35-seat House of Assembly have indicated they will vote in favour of the motion. This would weaken the minority Liberal government which has 14 MPs compared to Labor's 10. Mr Rockliff flagged he was willing to force a snap election, just 15 months after the state went to an early election. The Premier on Wednesday made an impassioned speech in his allocated 30 minutes, calling on crossbenchers to seriously consider the consequences if he was defeated. 'Do they really want to follow a wrecker who has come in day in day out and targeted individual members with disdain who did nothing more than to have the courage to put their hand up to make a difference to the Tasmanian people,' Mr Rockliff said. 'Whatever the outcome is, I implore this parliament to put Tasmanians first. 'They do not want an election. Dean Winter wants an election. 'What the Tasmania people want is stability, certainty and strong leadership.' In introducing the motion, Mr Winter said it gave him 'no pleasure to move this motion'. 'But under our system of government, if the Premier does not have the support of the majority of the House, then they cannot continue,' the Opposition Leader said. 'I don't believe I can in good conscience allow this Premier to continue. Tasmania needs change, not more of the same.' The Greens have indicated they are willing to form a minority government with Labor should Tasmanians head back to the polls just 15 months after the last state election.
ABC News
03-06-2025
- General
- ABC News
Political uncertainty returns to Tasmania, with Premier Jeremy Rockliff's leadership under threat
Finally felt like Tasmanian politics was stable? That you could go on holiday without the government being under threat? Well, go back to hyperventilating, and wondering whether you'll need to complete a postal vote on your next big overseas adventure — political uncertainty is back in Tasmania, in a big way. Until Tuesday, you could rest pretty easy that Labor wouldn't support a no-confidence motion moved by other members of parliament. And that they wouldn't move one in the government or the premier any time soon. Here are some quotes from Labor's Shane Broad about why Labor voted against a no-confidence motion moved by the Greens last month. Clear, right? But on Tuesday, just 28 days after Dr Broad's comments, Opposition Leader Dean Winter said things had changed. Drastically. He tabled a no-confidence motion, about the government's budget, its plans to privatise government-business enterprises, and its handling of the Spirit of Tasmania vessel replacement project. And said he'd move it as soon as eight other MPs told him they'd be on board. "I can't tolerate what they are doing to this state. I can't tolerate the recklessness of Jeremy Rockliff, and that's why I've tabled this motion," he told reporters on Tuesday. But Mr Winter faces a challenge explaining to voters why that "recklessness" means Tasmania has to go to an early election. Lots of the issues he raised — proposed GBE sell-offs, a bad budget position and the mishandling of the ferry fiasco have been known for some time. And they haven't changed dramatically in the four weeks since Dr Broad's speech. But just a couple of hours later, three crossbenchers had jumped on board — Jacqui Lambie Network MP Andrew Jenner, and independents Craig Garland and Kristie Johnston. It leaves an anxious wait about what the Greens will decide at a party room meeting on Wednesday. If the party, and its five MPs, say they'll support the motion, Mr Winter will have no choice but to fulfil his promise and move the no-confidence motion. It's enough to make your head spin. Or feel like you've hopped in a time machine back to early 2024 when Liberal defectors John Tucker and Lara Alexander threatened to end Mr Rockliff's minority government virtually every day, before he got sick of the turbulence and called an early election. In short, no one knows. Convention dictates Mr Rockliff should resign as premier if there's a successful no-confidence motion against him, letting someone else from his party take over the Liberal leadership. But in November, during another no-confidence motion debate, he said he'd go to the governor and ask for an early election to be called. There was no indication from the government on Tuesday about which option he would take, as MPs and staffers scrambled to work out whether they'd survive a no-confidence motion. And even if we knew which path Mr Rockliff would go down, it's not clear what would happen next. There's a chance the governor might not even let Mr Rockliff call an early election, if he decides that's what he wants to do. With it being so early in the term, she might ask Mr Rockliff to investigate whether another Liberal can govern first, or whether Labor could govern in minority with just 10 MPs. But if Mr Rockliff went down the other path and opted to resign, the new Liberal leader would have to convince the governor they had enough support from crossbench MPs to be able to govern. That might pose a challenge, given David O'Byrne — one of three independents to sign a confidence and supply deal with Mr Rockliff's government — has made it clear his deal is only valid for as long as Mr Rockliff is premier. The former Labor MP might have more difficulty selling a deal with a right-leaning Liberal to his voter base. The only thing we know for sure? Uncertainty reigns again, just when some thought Tasmania had moved into a period of relative political stability. The only other certain thing? The equilibrium is broken. No matter which way Wednesday goes, it will be a long time until Tasmanian politics feels stable again.
