Political uncertainty returns to Tasmania, with Premier Jeremy Rockliff's leadership under threat
Finally felt like Tasmanian politics was stable? That you could go on holiday without the government being under threat?
Well, go back to hyperventilating, and wondering whether you'll need to complete a postal vote on your next big overseas adventure — political uncertainty is back in Tasmania, in a big way.
Until Tuesday, you could rest pretty easy that Labor wouldn't support a no-confidence motion moved by other members of parliament.
And that they wouldn't move one in the government or the premier any time soon.
Here are some quotes from Labor's Shane Broad about why Labor voted against a no-confidence motion moved by the Greens last month.
Clear, right?
But on Tuesday, just 28 days after Dr Broad's comments, Opposition Leader Dean Winter said things had changed. Drastically.
He tabled a no-confidence motion, about the government's budget, its plans to privatise government-business enterprises, and its handling of the Spirit of Tasmania vessel replacement project.
And said he'd move it as soon as eight other MPs told him they'd be on board.
"I can't tolerate what they are doing to this state. I can't tolerate the recklessness of Jeremy Rockliff, and that's why I've tabled this motion," he told reporters on Tuesday.
But Mr Winter faces a challenge explaining to voters why that "recklessness" means Tasmania has to go to an early election.
Lots of the issues he raised — proposed GBE sell-offs, a bad budget position and the mishandling of the ferry fiasco have been known for some time.
And they haven't changed dramatically in the four weeks since Dr Broad's speech.
But just a couple of hours later, three crossbenchers had jumped on board — Jacqui Lambie Network MP Andrew Jenner, and independents Craig Garland and Kristie Johnston.
It leaves an anxious wait about what the Greens will decide at a party room meeting on Wednesday.
If the party, and its five MPs, say they'll support the motion, Mr Winter will have no choice but to fulfil his promise and move the no-confidence motion.
It's enough to make your head spin.
Or feel like you've hopped in a time machine back to early 2024 when Liberal defectors John Tucker and Lara Alexander threatened to end Mr Rockliff's minority government virtually every day, before he got sick of the turbulence and called an early election.
In short, no one knows.
Convention dictates Mr Rockliff should resign as premier if there's a successful no-confidence motion against him, letting someone else from his party take over the Liberal leadership.
But in November, during another no-confidence motion debate, he said he'd go to the governor and ask for an early election to be called.
There was no indication from the government on Tuesday about which option he would take, as MPs and staffers scrambled to work out whether they'd survive a no-confidence motion.
And even if we knew which path Mr Rockliff would go down, it's not clear what would happen next.
There's a chance the governor might not even let Mr Rockliff call an early election, if he decides that's what he wants to do.
With it being so early in the term, she might ask Mr Rockliff to investigate whether another Liberal can govern first, or whether Labor could govern in minority with just 10 MPs.
But if Mr Rockliff went down the other path and opted to resign, the new Liberal leader would have to convince the governor they had enough support from crossbench MPs to be able to govern.
That might pose a challenge, given David O'Byrne — one of three independents to sign a confidence and supply deal with Mr Rockliff's government — has made it clear his deal is only valid for as long as Mr Rockliff is premier.
The former Labor MP might have more difficulty selling a deal with a right-leaning Liberal to his voter base.
The only thing we know for sure? Uncertainty reigns again, just when some thought Tasmania had moved into a period of relative political stability.
The only other certain thing? The equilibrium is broken. No matter which way Wednesday goes, it will be a long time until Tasmanian politics feels stable again.
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ABC News
4 hours ago
- ABC News
Tasmania politics in turmoil
Samantha Donovan: And staying in Tasmania, the political situation there remains unclear this evening after the parliament passed a motion of no confidence in the Liberal Premier, Jeremy Rockliff, yesterday. The motion was brought forward by the Labor opposition leader, Dean Winter, who'd raised concerns about Mr Rockliff's management of the economy and infrastructure and his plans to sell off state assets. Plenty of Tasmanians rang in to ABC Radio today with their thoughts on the situation. Opinion: This is not in the interests of the people of Tasmania. Opinion: Yes, I certainly do. What an election. I like that way. It's my choice. It's not their choice who does what. I'd want to change the government. Opinion: I think they've been disgraceful. Opinion: I'd like to see a change of government, but I'd like to see the stadium continue. Opinion: The amount of money that would be swallowed up in a stadium would fund our health, our decrepit health system for months. That's it, money gone. Opinion: If we go to an election, the one thing I'd really say is I hope the Premier is not part of that election. He was the one that had the no confidence vote against them. He should have the dignity to resign. Opinion: My vote would support the candidate who doesn't support the stadium. I feel we've got far greater pressing needs at the moment. I've been on the public housing list for two years and there's over 5,000 people waiting and it's growing daily. Samantha Donovan: For the latest on the political situation in Tasmania, I spoke to the ABC's state political reporter, Adam Langenberg. Adam, is another election in Tasmania now inevitable? Adam Langenberg: Not inevitable, Sam, but everyone in the political sphere here says it's the most likely scenario. People I've been speaking to today say, you know, 75 or 80% likelihood that we head to an election. Of course, there are other scenarios that can play out. The governor can ask another Liberal MP to try and form government. That's something that the party room has not backed in. They say they'll back Jeremy Rockliff to the hilt and it's either an election or the governor tries to ask Labor to form minority government. That's something the Greens here have said they're open to working with Labor, but Labor leader Dean Winter, who moved this no confidence motion, he says under no circumstances will Labor govern with the Greens. So, it's a standoff and means that everyone thinks the most likely scenario is that election, which won't be called until at least Tuesday, if it does happen. Samantha Donovan: Adam, why is Tuesday the significant day? Adam Langenberg: Well, that's because Tasmanian Parliament needs to be recalled so a supply bill can be passed. The Tasmanian Parliament was in the middle of debating the budget, which hasn't passed. It means the Tasmanian public servants won't be paid after August. What that means is if there's going to be an election, there won't be a supply bill passed until well after that. So, there needed to be a mechanism to get them paid in the short term and that's what the supply bill is. And then after that, the Premier will go to the governor and ask for an early election. Samantha Donovan: Do you think the Labor leader, Dean Winter, fully appreciated what he was setting off with this no confidence motion? Adam Langenberg: That he didn't is an argument that's been prosecuted by the Liberals all week. They say they were just trying to change the Liberal leader and that's not something that they would tolerate. But Labor insists they meant what they did. They knew there were lots of scenarios. Maybe their preferred one might have been for Jeremy Rockliff just to have resigned. Well, they say they knew when they moved this motion, the consequences of it, and that it could mean that we head to an election and they were OK with that. Dean Winter has said repeatedly that he can't sit idly by and let Premier Jeremy Rockliff ruin the state. That's his argument. That debt and deficit are heading the wrong way in Tasmania, that the government can't manage major infrastructure projects, that it's going to sell off government businesses and the state can't afford it. So, Dean Winter says he knew full well what he was doing and now it's up to Tasmanians. Samantha Donovan: Adam, if there is another election, do you think Tasmanian voters are going to punish Labor for sending them back to the polls? Adam Langenberg: Well, Dean Winter's got five weeks or six weeks, depending on how long things take to get underway, to convince Tasmanians that it was the fault of the Premier that we're heading here. This is an argument that he's been making already, that the Premier didn't have the supply and confidence agreements he needed to be able to govern and Labor was just doing what any good opposition should do and holding the government to account. That's an argument he's going to have to make to try and win over Tasmanians. Now, we know that some of the party's biggest vote winners, historically, might not contest this time around. Rebecca White in Lyons has already gone to the federal parliament. It looks like Speaker Michelle O'Byrne in Bass might not contest the election. There's two big vote winners for Labor out of the picture, if that eventuates. So they've got their work cut out for them in growing from 10 seats that they hold currently, let alone getting to the 18 required for majority government. But, yeah, a big task in selling to Tasmanians exactly why they've done what they've done. That's something that's sort of got lost in the noise of the last two days because it's just truly remarkable to see a Premier ousted in the way that he has been. Samantha Donovan: The backers and fans of the long-awaited Tassie AFL club are worried it might fold because of this economic turmoil, even before it really gets off the ground. What's the worst-case political scenario for the Tassie Devils club? Adam Langenberg: I think the club will be hoping that there isn't a minority situation where the only way that one of the major parties can form government is in a coalition with an anti-stadium group of independents or the Greens. Because the first thing on their list when they're looking to form government will be, please don't build a stadium in Hobart. That's a reality that the club is really, really concerned about. Now, Labor have already said that they will not drop the stadium and not drop their support for the club going forward. And the Liberals have said the same thing. But in the harsh reality of post-election, when you need to trade to form power, what happens? And that's a real concern for football fans and the football club. And only time will tell exactly how that works out. Samantha Donovan: Adam Langenberg is the ABC's state political reporter in Tasmania.
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7 hours ago
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Ex-premier tips Liberal leadership change to avoid poll
Embattled premier Jeremy Rockliff has vowed to fight and win a snap election, but speculation is growing his Tasmanian Liberal colleagues will deny him the chance. Tasmania's lower house passed a motion of no confidence in Mr Rockliff on Thursday, just 15 months into the minority government's four-year term. The vote was an episode in spiralling political brinkmanship, with the premier warning opposition leader Dean Winter he would advise for an early election if his motion succeeded. The prevailing political wisdom is the Rockliff government will lose an election, with veteran Liberal political operative Brad Stansfield saying they would be "annihilated" in a winter campaign. However, parliament's dissolution is not due until after Tuesday, given the need to pass a stop-gap budget bill before the election campaign. The delay across the King's Birthday long weekend gives the 17 members of the Liberal party room - including 14 who will put their seats at risk in a campaign - plenty of time to rethink their support for Mr Rockliff. "It's probably 70 to 80 per cent likely that either over the weekend or following the appropriation bill going through on Tuesday, Jeremy won't be leader," former premier David Bartlett told AAP. "It won't be a coup. It will be a smooth transition of power to a new leader and Jeremy will be under all sorts of pressure from internal Liberal party people to make that happen. "I'm not even convinced Jeremy Rockliff wants to go to another election. He'd probably rather retire to the farm." Mr Bartlett led a Labor government between 2008-2011, including the 2010 election which required him - like Mr Rockliff after the 2024 poll - to govern in minority. He said there were no shortage of options for a new leader, who would need to organise support from enough crossbenchers to stave off an election. "Eric Abetz is ambitious, Michael Ferguson still has a baton in the knapsack, Guy Barnett is ambitious and Madeleine Ogilvie is ambitious," he said. Mr Stansfield, who has advised the Liberals to four straight election wins, said the Liberals' charge to an election was "lemming-like behaviour". "They have willingly chosen to go to their own political execution rather than change their policies or change their leader in order to stay in power," he told the FontCast podcast. Former Liberal Premier Will Hodgman attacked the vote of no confidence, saying it was "politically reckless, and seriously damaging to Tasmania's reputation" on social media. AAP has spoken with multiple past and present MPs and advisers, who have confirmed Liberal MPs are privately canvassing options to topple Mr Rockliff and avoid an election. Mr Stansfield - who confirmed dissenting voices in the partyroom over the election position - said Mr Rockliff's position was secure. "The die is cast. They have chosen to follow their leader to an election that they will lose," he said. Liberal senator for Tasmania Jonno Duniam was incredulous about the leadership speculation. "They could choose to change leader - I'm not a part of that party room, I'm not going to tell them what to do," he told the ABC. "This is nuts that we're going to an election." Mr Rockliff on Friday travelled to his home region of the north-west coast, the same community which experienced the deaths of six children in a 2021 bouncy castle tragedy. He opted against a public appearance, given it came on the same day a verdict was finally reached on workplace health and safety failings behind the incident. "Today politics must be put aside. Another heart wrenching day, as we relive the trauma of the Hillcrest tragedy," he posted on social media. After losing the no-confidence vote, Mr Rockliff gave an emotional address to parliament where he revealed he fought off internal opponents to stand by the billion-dollar Hobart waterfront stadium which would house a Tasmanian AFL team - but is unpopular with voters. "I've been advised by all the hard-heads in my party not to go down that track. Why? Because it's bad for votes," he said. "Well, I've always said 'stuff votes' ... I'll say it for the stadium for as long as I damn well live, because I believe in it." Embattled premier Jeremy Rockliff has vowed to fight and win a snap election, but speculation is growing his Tasmanian Liberal colleagues will deny him the chance. Tasmania's lower house passed a motion of no confidence in Mr Rockliff on Thursday, just 15 months into the minority government's four-year term. The vote was an episode in spiralling political brinkmanship, with the premier warning opposition leader Dean Winter he would advise for an early election if his motion succeeded. The prevailing political wisdom is the Rockliff government will lose an election, with veteran Liberal political operative Brad Stansfield saying they would be "annihilated" in a winter campaign. However, parliament's dissolution is not due until after Tuesday, given the need to pass a stop-gap budget bill before the election campaign. The delay across the King's Birthday long weekend gives the 17 members of the Liberal party room - including 14 who will put their seats at risk in a campaign - plenty of time to rethink their support for Mr Rockliff. "It's probably 70 to 80 per cent likely that either over the weekend or following the appropriation bill going through on Tuesday, Jeremy won't be leader," former premier David Bartlett told AAP. "It won't be a coup. It will be a smooth transition of power to a new leader and Jeremy will be under all sorts of pressure from internal Liberal party people to make that happen. "I'm not even convinced Jeremy Rockliff wants to go to another election. He'd probably rather retire to the farm." Mr Bartlett led a Labor government between 2008-2011, including the 2010 election which required him - like Mr Rockliff after the 2024 poll - to govern in minority. He said there were no shortage of options for a new leader, who would need to organise support from enough crossbenchers to stave off an election. "Eric Abetz is ambitious, Michael Ferguson still has a baton in the knapsack, Guy Barnett is ambitious and Madeleine Ogilvie is ambitious," he said. Mr Stansfield, who has advised the Liberals to four straight election wins, said the Liberals' charge to an election was "lemming-like behaviour". "They have willingly chosen to go to their own political execution rather than change their policies or change their leader in order to stay in power," he told the FontCast podcast. Former Liberal Premier Will Hodgman attacked the vote of no confidence, saying it was "politically reckless, and seriously damaging to Tasmania's reputation" on social media. AAP has spoken with multiple past and present MPs and advisers, who have confirmed Liberal MPs are privately canvassing options to topple Mr Rockliff and avoid an election. Mr Stansfield - who confirmed dissenting voices in the partyroom over the election position - said Mr Rockliff's position was secure. "The die is cast. They have chosen to follow their leader to an election that they will lose," he said. Liberal senator for Tasmania Jonno Duniam was incredulous about the leadership speculation. "They could choose to change leader - I'm not a part of that party room, I'm not going to tell them what to do," he told the ABC. "This is nuts that we're going to an election." Mr Rockliff on Friday travelled to his home region of the north-west coast, the same community which experienced the deaths of six children in a 2021 bouncy castle tragedy. He opted against a public appearance, given it came on the same day a verdict was finally reached on workplace health and safety failings behind the incident. "Today politics must be put aside. Another heart wrenching day, as we relive the trauma of the Hillcrest tragedy," he posted on social media. After losing the no-confidence vote, Mr Rockliff gave an emotional address to parliament where he revealed he fought off internal opponents to stand by the billion-dollar Hobart waterfront stadium which would house a Tasmanian AFL team - but is unpopular with voters. "I've been advised by all the hard-heads in my party not to go down that track. Why? Because it's bad for votes," he said. "Well, I've always said 'stuff votes' ... I'll say it for the stadium for as long as I damn well live, because I believe in it." Embattled premier Jeremy Rockliff has vowed to fight and win a snap election, but speculation is growing his Tasmanian Liberal colleagues will deny him the chance. Tasmania's lower house passed a motion of no confidence in Mr Rockliff on Thursday, just 15 months into the minority government's four-year term. The vote was an episode in spiralling political brinkmanship, with the premier warning opposition leader Dean Winter he would advise for an early election if his motion succeeded. The prevailing political wisdom is the Rockliff government will lose an election, with veteran Liberal political operative Brad Stansfield saying they would be "annihilated" in a winter campaign. However, parliament's dissolution is not due until after Tuesday, given the need to pass a stop-gap budget bill before the election campaign. The delay across the King's Birthday long weekend gives the 17 members of the Liberal party room - including 14 who will put their seats at risk in a campaign - plenty of time to rethink their support for Mr Rockliff. "It's probably 70 to 80 per cent likely that either over the weekend or following the appropriation bill going through on Tuesday, Jeremy won't be leader," former premier David Bartlett told AAP. "It won't be a coup. It will be a smooth transition of power to a new leader and Jeremy will be under all sorts of pressure from internal Liberal party people to make that happen. "I'm not even convinced Jeremy Rockliff wants to go to another election. He'd probably rather retire to the farm." Mr Bartlett led a Labor government between 2008-2011, including the 2010 election which required him - like Mr Rockliff after the 2024 poll - to govern in minority. He said there were no shortage of options for a new leader, who would need to organise support from enough crossbenchers to stave off an election. "Eric Abetz is ambitious, Michael Ferguson still has a baton in the knapsack, Guy Barnett is ambitious and Madeleine Ogilvie is ambitious," he said. Mr Stansfield, who has advised the Liberals to four straight election wins, said the Liberals' charge to an election was "lemming-like behaviour". "They have willingly chosen to go to their own political execution rather than change their policies or change their leader in order to stay in power," he told the FontCast podcast. Former Liberal Premier Will Hodgman attacked the vote of no confidence, saying it was "politically reckless, and seriously damaging to Tasmania's reputation" on social media. AAP has spoken with multiple past and present MPs and advisers, who have confirmed Liberal MPs are privately canvassing options to topple Mr Rockliff and avoid an election. Mr Stansfield - who confirmed dissenting voices in the partyroom over the election position - said Mr Rockliff's position was secure. "The die is cast. They have chosen to follow their leader to an election that they will lose," he said. Liberal senator for Tasmania Jonno Duniam was incredulous about the leadership speculation. "They could choose to change leader - I'm not a part of that party room, I'm not going to tell them what to do," he told the ABC. "This is nuts that we're going to an election." Mr Rockliff on Friday travelled to his home region of the north-west coast, the same community which experienced the deaths of six children in a 2021 bouncy castle tragedy. He opted against a public appearance, given it came on the same day a verdict was finally reached on workplace health and safety failings behind the incident. "Today politics must be put aside. Another heart wrenching day, as we relive the trauma of the Hillcrest tragedy," he posted on social media. After losing the no-confidence vote, Mr Rockliff gave an emotional address to parliament where he revealed he fought off internal opponents to stand by the billion-dollar Hobart waterfront stadium which would house a Tasmanian AFL team - but is unpopular with voters. "I've been advised by all the hard-heads in my party not to go down that track. Why? Because it's bad for votes," he said. "Well, I've always said 'stuff votes' ... I'll say it for the stadium for as long as I damn well live, because I believe in it." Embattled premier Jeremy Rockliff has vowed to fight and win a snap election, but speculation is growing his Tasmanian Liberal colleagues will deny him the chance. Tasmania's lower house passed a motion of no confidence in Mr Rockliff on Thursday, just 15 months into the minority government's four-year term. The vote was an episode in spiralling political brinkmanship, with the premier warning opposition leader Dean Winter he would advise for an early election if his motion succeeded. The prevailing political wisdom is the Rockliff government will lose an election, with veteran Liberal political operative Brad Stansfield saying they would be "annihilated" in a winter campaign. However, parliament's dissolution is not due until after Tuesday, given the need to pass a stop-gap budget bill before the election campaign. The delay across the King's Birthday long weekend gives the 17 members of the Liberal party room - including 14 who will put their seats at risk in a campaign - plenty of time to rethink their support for Mr Rockliff. "It's probably 70 to 80 per cent likely that either over the weekend or following the appropriation bill going through on Tuesday, Jeremy won't be leader," former premier David Bartlett told AAP. "It won't be a coup. It will be a smooth transition of power to a new leader and Jeremy will be under all sorts of pressure from internal Liberal party people to make that happen. "I'm not even convinced Jeremy Rockliff wants to go to another election. He'd probably rather retire to the farm." Mr Bartlett led a Labor government between 2008-2011, including the 2010 election which required him - like Mr Rockliff after the 2024 poll - to govern in minority. He said there were no shortage of options for a new leader, who would need to organise support from enough crossbenchers to stave off an election. "Eric Abetz is ambitious, Michael Ferguson still has a baton in the knapsack, Guy Barnett is ambitious and Madeleine Ogilvie is ambitious," he said. Mr Stansfield, who has advised the Liberals to four straight election wins, said the Liberals' charge to an election was "lemming-like behaviour". "They have willingly chosen to go to their own political execution rather than change their policies or change their leader in order to stay in power," he told the FontCast podcast. Former Liberal Premier Will Hodgman attacked the vote of no confidence, saying it was "politically reckless, and seriously damaging to Tasmania's reputation" on social media. AAP has spoken with multiple past and present MPs and advisers, who have confirmed Liberal MPs are privately canvassing options to topple Mr Rockliff and avoid an election. Mr Stansfield - who confirmed dissenting voices in the partyroom over the election position - said Mr Rockliff's position was secure. "The die is cast. They have chosen to follow their leader to an election that they will lose," he said. Liberal senator for Tasmania Jonno Duniam was incredulous about the leadership speculation. "They could choose to change leader - I'm not a part of that party room, I'm not going to tell them what to do," he told the ABC. "This is nuts that we're going to an election." Mr Rockliff on Friday travelled to his home region of the north-west coast, the same community which experienced the deaths of six children in a 2021 bouncy castle tragedy. He opted against a public appearance, given it came on the same day a verdict was finally reached on workplace health and safety failings behind the incident. "Today politics must be put aside. Another heart wrenching day, as we relive the trauma of the Hillcrest tragedy," he posted on social media. After losing the no-confidence vote, Mr Rockliff gave an emotional address to parliament where he revealed he fought off internal opponents to stand by the billion-dollar Hobart waterfront stadium which would house a Tasmanian AFL team - but is unpopular with voters. "I've been advised by all the hard-heads in my party not to go down that track. Why? Because it's bad for votes," he said. "Well, I've always said 'stuff votes' ... I'll say it for the stadium for as long as I damn well live, because I believe in it."
