Political uncertainty returns to Tasmania, with Premier Jeremy Rockliff's leadership under threat
Well, go back to hyperventilating, and wondering whether you'll need to complete a postal vote on your next big overseas adventure — political uncertainty is back in Tasmania, in a big way.
Until Tuesday, you could rest pretty easy that Labor wouldn't support a no-confidence motion moved by other members of parliament.
And that they wouldn't move one in the government or the premier any time soon.
Here are some quotes from Labor's Shane Broad about why Labor voted against a no-confidence motion moved by the Greens last month.
Clear, right?
But on Tuesday, just 28 days after Dr Broad's comments, Opposition Leader Dean Winter said things had changed. Drastically.
He tabled a no-confidence motion, about the government's budget, its plans to privatise government-business enterprises, and its handling of the Spirit of Tasmania vessel replacement project.
And said he'd move it as soon as eight other MPs told him they'd be on board.
"I can't tolerate what they are doing to this state. I can't tolerate the recklessness of Jeremy Rockliff, and that's why I've tabled this motion," he told reporters on Tuesday.
But Mr Winter faces a challenge explaining to voters why that "recklessness" means Tasmania has to go to an early election.
Lots of the issues he raised — proposed GBE sell-offs, a bad budget position and the mishandling of the ferry fiasco have been known for some time.
And they haven't changed dramatically in the four weeks since Dr Broad's speech.
But just a couple of hours later, three crossbenchers had jumped on board — Jacqui Lambie Network MP Andrew Jenner, and independents Craig Garland and Kristie Johnston.
It leaves an anxious wait about what the Greens will decide at a party room meeting on Wednesday.
If the party, and its five MPs, say they'll support the motion, Mr Winter will have no choice but to fulfil his promise and move the no-confidence motion.
It's enough to make your head spin.
Or feel like you've hopped in a time machine back to early 2024 when Liberal defectors John Tucker and Lara Alexander threatened to end Mr Rockliff's minority government virtually every day, before he got sick of the turbulence and called an early election.
In short, no one knows.
Convention dictates Mr Rockliff should resign as premier if there's a successful no-confidence motion against him, letting someone else from his party take over the Liberal leadership.
But in November, during another no-confidence motion debate, he said he'd go to the governor and ask for an early election to be called.
There was no indication from the government on Tuesday about which option he would take, as MPs and staffers scrambled to work out whether they'd survive a no-confidence motion.
And even if we knew which path Mr Rockliff would go down, it's not clear what would happen next.
There's a chance the governor might not even let Mr Rockliff call an early election, if he decides that's what he wants to do.
With it being so early in the term, she might ask Mr Rockliff to investigate whether another Liberal can govern first, or whether Labor could govern in minority with just 10 MPs.
But if Mr Rockliff went down the other path and opted to resign, the new Liberal leader would have to convince the governor they had enough support from crossbench MPs to be able to govern.
That might pose a challenge, given David O'Byrne — one of three independents to sign a confidence and supply deal with Mr Rockliff's government — has made it clear his deal is only valid for as long as Mr Rockliff is premier.
The former Labor MP might have more difficulty selling a deal with a right-leaning Liberal to his voter base.
The only thing we know for sure? Uncertainty reigns again, just when some thought Tasmania had moved into a period of relative political stability.
The only other certain thing? The equilibrium is broken. No matter which way Wednesday goes, it will be a long time until Tasmanian politics feels stable again.
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