A feeling of calm before the storm descends on Tasmanian politics following motion of no-confidence in Jeremy Rockliff

Australia Broadcast Center

17 hours ago

After a wild few days in the crazy world that is Tasmanian politics, Friday felt eerily quiet.
For some, it was a reprieve, a day to breathe and reflect on what had just happened and what might happen next.
For others, it was more like the kind of silence before a jump scare.
If the past few days were a horror movie with the final act being the toppling of the state's leader, then the weekend is a thriller.
An uncomfortable wait in suspense with the knowledge that something unknown is just around the corner.
But there are so many scenarios that can play out.
What Tasmanians know is that by the end of next week something will have changed in the state's political landscape.
The Liberals will still be in charge but with a different leader at the helm — someone like Eric Abetz or Michael Ferguson.
Or the world will have turned upside down and Labor Leader Dean Winter would have figured out a way to govern with just 10 MPs, leaning on the support of the crossbench and the Greens.
The last option is we're in election mode for the second time within 18 months.
Tuesday is D-Day. If things are still at status quo and the supply bills — necessary for public servants to continue to be paid — pass, then Jeremy Rockliff will take a trip to see the Governor.
The Governor will consider all of the above options. At this stage, it appears most politicians are resigned to an election being called.
But three days is a long time in Tasmanian politics, and a lot can happen.
For example, the Liberals — whose war chests are no doubt unprepared for an election or who are worried about losing their seats — could roll Mr Rockliff.
Labor, and some members of the crossbench, say that should happen, or Mr Rockliff should fall on his sword and resign. Even fellow Liberal Senator Jonathon Duniam suggested as much on Friday morning.
But how likely is that to happen?
It is understood some, like Mr Abetz, have already done the numbers and come up short.
There's also an understanding in the party that while Mr Abetz certainly has his supporters, he's not everyone's cup of tea.
Some worry he'll struggle to get support from the crossbench needed to continue governing, and fear he's too polarising to lead the party to a state election.
The other two real contenders are Treasurer Guy Barnett, the architect of last week's budget paper which inspired the motion of no-confidence, and Michael Ferguson who was already banished to the backbench over the Spirit of Tasmania fiasco.
There doesn't seem to be a stand-out candidate amongst them.
And there's something Jeremy Rockliff's opponents may have underestimated: people really like him.
Because if there was one thing everyone could agree on during the motion of no-confidence, Mr Rockliff is a nice guy.
Of course. the motion wasn't about his personality — after all nice is great, but it's not enough to lead a state.
Nice doesn't pay off the almost $11 billion in debt that Tasmania is expected to rack up in four years' time and it hasn't helped build the berth for the new Spirit of Tasmania ships on time.
Then there's the stadium cap.
It is unlikely that the average Tasmanian heard "$375 million" — on capital when it was mentioned — "and not a red cent more" and realised it included hundreds of millions of dollars in borrowings.
It might not technically be able to be called a broken promise yet, but, for the general public it's the vibe of the thing and the vibe is off.
Not to mention Mr Rockliff's plans to cut the public service and sell off public assets were decidedly controversial.
There are many valid reasons that Labor and the crossbench had when they spoke about why they were supporting the motion of no-confidence in Mr Rockliff. And that should not be forgotten.
But that niceness, and loyalty, means fellow Liberals have decided that they'll back Mr Rockliff's leadership to the hilt. Even if it means an early election.
The other aspect is that the party seems to believe that Mr Rockliff leaving won't be the fix.
There is a view that Labor and the crossbench will eventually come after whoever is next.
If Tasmanians do head to the polls, some of it is because Labor won't explore the third option: forming a minority government.
Greens Leader Rosalie Woodruff was out on Friday, once again offering Mr Winter a quick path to the premiership, or at the very least a conversation.
But Mr Winter can't say it enough (apparently) that there is no world in which he leans on the Greens for any kind of support.
While Dr Woodruff may argue that the parties' values are more aligned, Mr Winter sees the Greens as toxic for Labor.
So if Labor doesn't want to govern, why did it raise the no-confidence motion?
Some have suggested (tablespoon of salt because it's mostly Liberals) that Mr Winter simply wanted to knock off a more popular opponent.
Whatever the motivation, it's done now and there is a very real chance Mr Winter will be heading to his first election as leader. It's unlikely to be an easy one.
While Labor is blaming the Liberals for the election and the Liberals are blaming Labor, the public is blaming all politicians, in particular the major parties.
Labor's copping blame for starting the whole mess in the first place. It was playing with fire when it challenged the crossbench MPs, who swiftly rose to the occasion.
Mr Winter may have been hoping the premier would backdown and resign, but he would've known that an election was a serious possibility.
They went through something similar back in November, when the Greens raised a no-confidence motion and Mr Rockliff declared that he'd ask for an election to be called if it passed.
Turns out he wasn't bluffing.
Labor's also going to have to face up to the stadium issue.
The anti-stadium crowd knows Labor is pro-stadium and team, and won't trust it. While the pro-stadium crowd is enraged that Labor is putting it all in jeopardy — the Liberals are somehow escaping this criticism.
Meanwhile, the Liberals are getting the blame because yes — as Labor has pointed out — they are choosing to seek an election instead of a new leader, backed into a corner or not.
The fact is, the blood was in the water. People were getting frustrated with the Liberal government.
But as angry as people were with a government that's been in power for 11 years, the general sentiment seems to be that it is just too soon for another election
Mr Winter's got five weeks to convince Tasmanians he made the right move in toppling the premier, rather than letting the government bleed out a little longer.