Tasmania election: Winter mulls Greens deal as hung parliament looms
The results two days on show Tasmania Labor is still on track for its worst ever electoral performance with the party currently sitting on under 26 per cent of the primary vote with the Liberals on 40 per cent and the Greens capturing 14 per cent of voters first choices.
Labor's 2025 state election result is the party's worst electoral performance since 1903.
Despite the result, Labor is likely to end up with the same number of MPs as it did in the 2024 election when it achieved 29 per cent of the primary, while the Liberals had 14 seats – short of the 18 to form majority.
While Premier Jeremy Rockliff is claiming a mandate for the Liberal Party to continue in power, Labor leader Dean Winter may still work with the Greens and crossbenchers to form a minority government.
Labor Leader Dean Winter with his wife Allison at Hobart Grand Chancellor tally room on election night. Picture: Caroline Tan
As the election night results rolled into the Tasmanian tally room, it looked increasingly like Mr Winter's election gamble had backfired.
What makes this election outcome different is unlike in the immediate aftermath of the 2024 result, the Labor leader has not refused to attempt to form government with the Greens and independent crossbench.
Despite ruling out any formal deal with the Greens, Mr Winter says he has already reached out to a number of independents.
The Greens have urged Labor to seek an arrangement with them to form government.
It is understood the Labor leader has yet to contact Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff. However for Labor to govern in any capacity, the Greens support in some form will be required.
Mr Rockliff who all but declared victory on Saturday night is adamant that he is the one with a mandate to govern.
'I do have a mandate, given we've got the largest number of seats,' the Premier told reporters on Monday.
'For Dean Winter to govern, he'll need to do a deal with the Greens for which he does not have a mandate from the Tasmanian people.'
Liberal Leader Jeremy Rockliff says he has the mandate to form a minority government. Picture: Caroline Tan
The problem for the Liberals however is that with a likely 14 or possibly 15 seats, they are also well short of the 18 votes needed to command a workable majority on the floor of the 35-seat House of Assembly.
Additionally, with the former Jacqui Lambie members all losing their seats, the House will be without conservative leaning independents, with three of the four independents elected opposed to the Macquarie Point stadium.
The only crossbench member to support the project is former Labor leader David O Byrne, who said he could work with either side to form government.
There could be an additional new member to the crossbench with Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Carlo di Falco a chance to win in Lyons, however a final result is not expected for another week.
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are opposed to the stadium, meaning one of Mr Rockliff's key commitments would only be delivered with Labor votes, regardless of who forms government.
Tasmania Labor's path to power looks less certain but they can count on Greens support in whatever form that comes (Mr Winter says the support would only be accepted without any conditions attached)
Labor leader Dean Winter's chances of forming government are more difficult. Picture: Caroline Tan
With a likely 10 seats from Labor and five from the Greens, Mr Winter would then only have to negotiate with three independents, something Mr Winter was unwilling to do just one month ago.
Saturday's election was held follow the passage of Labor leader's successful no confidence motion in Premier Rockliff's leadership with Mr Winter citing the botched roll out of new Spirit of Tasmania vessels, the state's growing budget deficit and the controversial Macquarie Point Stadium project as examples of Mr Rockliff's failed leadership.
Despite being in a position to put together a minority government as a result of the no confidence motion's passage, Mr Winter chose to decline the opportunity, leaving the state's Governor with no choice but to grant Mr Rockliff's wish to hold the state's second election in just 16 months.
Instead of a clear result. Tasmanian voters have returned very similar numbers as the last parliament.
This time Mr Winter may be less likely to pass the opportunity of government up, with the Labor leader calling a third election 'not an option.'
Originally published as How Labor Party could still form government in Tasmania despite 'worst ever' election result

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4 hours ago
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The Age
4 hours ago
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Labor staffers could help change the nation. But there's a reason they're leaving
When old friends spot former Labor staffer Dean Sherr around Parliament House these days, they tend to say the same thing. 'In Canberra, people always say to me 'you look really relaxed',' Sherr says. Sherr left government last term, but in the months since Prime Minister Anthony Albanese secured a generational election victory and a sweeping mandate to change Australia, scores of senior Labor staff have followed him out of their jobs. Faced with a choice between helping to run the nation for three more years in a building that demands gruelling work hours, or a more stable life with less travel and vastly better pay, Labor lifers and recent recruits alike have decided to get out. 'It's a very difficult lifestyle for anyone to maintain,' says Sherr, who was a media adviser for Albanese and now works at boutique business consulting firm Orizontas. 'It's an amazing opportunity, but you make a lot of sacrifices and there's no doubt that it wears you out pretty quickly.' In past years, Coalition staff have done the same thing, capitalising on their ties to former colleagues still in government. The opposition's smaller ranks after the most recent election mean many staff have involuntarily lost their jobs too. But the recent departures from government show the flow to the private sector is bipartisan. When Katharine Murphy, a press gallery veteran and long-term political editor of the Guardian Australia joined Albanese's office as a press secretary last year, it appeared to be a coup for the prime minister's team. But in June, Murphy – who was well-liked by her former colleagues in the media – left her post with the government. Albanese also lost another high-profile recruit from the press gallery, former Channel Ten reporter Stela Todorovic. Other departures from the prime minister's office include advancer Prue Mercer, strategic communications director Katie Connolly, senior advisers Phoebe Drake and Lachlan McKenzie and media adviser Irene Oh. All up, more than 10 people left Albanese's team of around 50. Despite recent departures, the prime minister's office said a majority of staff across the government were female. The departures haven't been limited to the prime minister's office either. Penny Wong lost her long-term chief of staff Thomas Mooney – rumoured to have ambitions of a political career in South Australia – and media boss Caitlin Raper. Health Minister Mark Butler's chief of staff Nick Martin is gone. Brigid Delaney, a popular former Guardian columnist and co-creator of the hit Netflix series Wellmania, who has worked as a speechwriter for Labor frontbenchers Katy Gallagher and Tanya Plibersek, left to focus on her own media career. Plibersek's chief of staff Dan Doran has moved on, as has Employment Minister Amanda Rishworth's deputy chief of staff Lanai Scarr, a one-time political editor for the West Australian. 'This job is brutal,' said one former staffer, echoing numerous others who sometimes used more colourful language. One former senior staffer working in the corporate sector said that while working in politics, she would often pull 75- to 100-hour weeks. Life in the private sector is a comparative breeze. Those hours are consistent with working under both Labor and Coalition MPs. The 2021 Jenkins review into parliament's workplace culture found stressed and overworked employees were a risk factor for inappropriate behaviour and creating a toxic work environment. There have been several high-profile workplace cases in the years since, but the Albanese government has created an independent Parliamentary Workplace Support Service to assist staff and a parliamentary standards commission to confront bad behaviour by MPs. The former staffers mentioned in this piece either declined to comment or did not respond to a request for comment, but in either case there is no suggestion they were exposed to a toxic work culture. The long hours are often a product of ministers and staffers trying to manage the demands of politics, the media, and policy reform at the same time. Ryan Liddell, a former chief of staff to ex-Labor leader Bill Shorten, says the pressure to be constantly plugged in makes living a regular life challenging. 'As a staffer you normalise things like spending Christmas lunch on the phone to the boss while your family hands you beers,' says Liddell now running his own government relations firm Principle Advisory. 'You basically lose track of the weekends. On Sunday, you might wake up at 6.30am instead of 5.30am.' Little wonder then, that after an election period, people are taking stock of their lives, deciding they want to see their families, or go on holidays and figuring out an escape route. Quitting after the election also makes financial sense. Under the law for parliamentary staff, those who leave their jobs during an eight-week window after the election can walk away with a severance package five times what they'd otherwise get. It is 'life-changing' money, one former Labor staffer says. And life outside politics can be even more lucrative. Loading While some staffers are seeking to become members of parliament, many former aides instead find jobs in government relations, lobbying or public relations that often pay better than what the Commonwealth pays MPs, let alone staffers. A ministerial chief of staff in federal politics will generally earn around $250,000 a year, for example, with senior advisers taking home around $170,000. A government relations professional at a major corporation can earn over $320,000, several sources said on condition of anonymity to discuss their pay. In some sectors, that will also come with a range of perks unavailable to political staff: free private health insurance and gym membership, media subscriptions, travel and an entertainment budget to boot. Already, a few of the Albanese government's former staff have landed in high-profile corporate roles. Todorovic, the former Channel 10 journalist, began as local media director for PsiQuantum, the Silicon Valley quantum computing start-up that Labor has committed hundreds of millions to in loans and investment. After 14 years with Plibersek, Doran, her chief of staff, is headed to the Commonwealth Bank as general manager of government affairs. Liz Fitch, who quit as Albanese's press secretary last year, is now head of government affairs for Australia and New Zealand at Microsoft. Loading The ranks of Australia's major corporate players, from the big four banks, to Qantas, mining companies, and the like, are filled with people who have experience working on both sides of politics. Where former Labor staff see opportunities that match their skills, some integrity experts see a red flag. Chair of the Centre for Public Integrity, Anthony Whealy, describes lobbying and the flow of senior government and bureaucratic figures into the industry as a 'very nasty disease' that 'needs a good vaccination'. 'The government is not doing that well because it's falling into the habits that governments so often do, of complacency and then wanting to shut itself off from proper accountability and transparency. That's a worrying trend and I think it'll only get worse,' the former NSW Court of Appeal judge says. Former staffers dispute the notion of a neatly revolving door between politics and the private sector. Some, particularly those whose party has been thrust into opposition, can spend months finding work. 'Some staffers tend to have a bit of exceptionalism and think they'll automatically get a job by virtue of working for the PM,' one anonymous former Labor staffer says. In the end, staffers often stumble into the corporate world because it's the best offer outside of politics. Companies, especially those working in highly regulated environments, value ex-staffers' resilience and knowledge of the politico-media landscape. Loading And after years working in the pressure cooker of politics, staffers tend to be desperate for something lower stakes. 'In politics, if you miss something, or drop the ball, or make a mistake, it could be a scandal, it could be front page news, or get dredged up by the opposition,' says Sherr. Despite the horrendous hours and relentless pressure, everyone spoken to for this story described working in politics as an unforgettable honour, an emotional roller-coaster that can be become borderline addictive. 'You have some pretty amazing highs and some pretty horrific lows,' says Liddell, who left politics after Shorten's gutting 2019 election loss. Sherr says that while the opportunity to work for a Labor government was 'the job of a lifetime'. The accompanying lifestyle he can do without.