ESPN's Bill Connelly forecasts Michigan 2025 rebound with Bryce Underwood leading offense

USA Today

6 days ago

While many pundits don't expect that much from Michigan football in 2025, ESPN's resident advanced analytics guru, Bill Connelly, isn't among them. Though the Wolverines finished ranked No. 26 according to his SP+ rankings last year, he is optimistic that the maize and blue will rebound nicely in 2025.
Connelly is a bit ahead of the curve this year, seeing Michigan eclipsing the originally set over-under of 8.5. In his writeup of teams that will rebound from tougher years in 2024, the Wolverines are among his five teams, noting that there are still questions about the offensive side of the ball, but with Bryce Underwood leading the charge, the attack should be much more complementary with an expected stellar defense.
2025 projection (as of May): 9.8 average wins, 10th (+21.5)
From the Big Ten preview: "The Wolverines went unbeaten when scoring at least 24 points (national scoring average: 28.0), but they reached that mark in only six of 13 games thanks primarily to a black hole at the QB position. They ranked 91st in Total QBR and 131st -- last nationally among non-service academies -- in passing yards per game (129.1). ... Either five-star freshman Bryce Underwood or veteran transfer Mikey Keene (Fresno State) will begin the season at QB for Moore's second Michigan team, and it's probably fair to assume that Underwood will finish it there. His first spring was up-and-down, but going from the aforementioned black hole to the best high school prospect in the country is quite the leap."
Seeing Michigan projected 10th overall was a bit concerning, as the offense still has loads of questions. But I'd be surprised if the Wolverines didn't have a top-10 defense, and the schedule features only one projected top-15 team, per SP+. And they won eight games and beat Ohio State and Alabama while getting almost nothing from the QB. Even if Underwood isn't ready to lead a CFP team yet, a return to 9-3 or so and occasional actual passing yardage don't seem like too much to ask.
Of course, the projected top-15 team that Connelly lists is Ohio State, the final game of the regular season and the team that Michigan has beaten four-straight times. He does include Washington in his list of teams expected to rebound, so that may be a tougher-than-expected game -- especially as the Wolverines look to avenge last year's loss.
One place we disagree is in the Big Ten preview section, where he says that Underwood was up-and-down. If you count solely the spring game, yes, he made some mistakes. But his 12-for-26 statline doesn't account for how accurate he was throughout much of that day. And most accounts suggest that Underwood had a stellar spring when it came to all of the 15 practices.