The US has lost 790,000 workers in the last three months. Here's why this could be a sleeper problem.

Business Insider

7 hours ago

Good morning. At BI, we often share stories of people making big changes to chase their dreams. But sometimes, it can be a nightmare. One man moved his family to Hawaii for his wife's career. Six months after he joined them, she lost her job. Now, they're no longer together.
In today's big story, an under-the-radar number reveals a huge red flag for America's job market.
What's on deck:
Markets: The hedge funder who sparked the Opendoor rally sees it surging 2,000% more by end of year.
Tech: Anthropic is getting picky about how you can invest in it.
Business: Zelenskyy wore an all-black suit to the White House. Stylists say it's crucial to dress up for high-stakes meetings.
But first, where is everyone?
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The big story
The scariest job market number
It's not a statistic that gets much attention. Not like CPI, core PCE, or PPI — all strutting into the spotlight every month, making headlines and market moves.
Lurking under the hood of unemployment data, you'll find it. Look even closer, and you'll see a huge red flag.
The official US labor force, which measures the number of working-age Americans actively working or looking for work, is shrinking at a rate usually seen during the throes of economic disaster.
The consequences could be perilous, Callie Cox, the chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, writes for BI.
For years, the number of working-age Americans entering the workforce has outpaced those leaving, helping to fuel economic expansion.
Things have changed. Over the last three consecutive months, the US has lost 790,000 workers.
One factor is immigration. A 90% drop in border encounters over the past year has cut the influx of foreign-born workers — a group that historically has played a big role in supporting the US labor force, Callie highlights.
At the same time, other challenges — such as return-to-office mandates and high childcare costs — have led to fewer women entering or staying in the workforce.
Take the AI talent wars. With a tiny pool of elite engineers, tech giants like Meta have spent billions chasing a handful of workers — and competitors like Microsoft are trying to snatch them away.
But not every company has pockets as deep as Meta and Microsoft. As labor shortages drag on, many businesses may start to reduce hiring, expansion, and investment.
This sends ripples through consumer spending, which drives nearly 70% of the US economy. Fewer workers means less spending, which slows growth.
Reversing the trend demands smarter policy and stronger economic momentum, Callie writes. But right now, neither seems in sight.
3 things in markets
1. Jackson Hole and other potential market movers. It's set to be another big week in markets. Here's everything we're watching this week, from Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking at the central bank's Jackson Hole symposium to the release of new housing data and key retail earnings.
2. Opendoor's great expectations. Hedge fund founder Eric Jackson — aka the guy who sparked the stock's July rally — thinks it has a lot further to climb. Thanks to the CEO's recent exit, Jackson sees the stock surging 2,000% by the year's end.
3. All the smart tech inside JPMorgan's new HQ. From biometric scanners to circadian rhythm lighting and lattes on demand, the bank is leveraging tech to make return-to-office more comfortable for its employees. See the high-tech features going into its new Park Avenue space.
3 things in tech
1. Beggars can't be choosers, but Anthropic is no beggar. In its latest funding round, the AI startup is raising about $5 billion at a $170 billion valuation, and this time, it doesn't want investors using special purpose vehicles, or SPVs, to get in on the action. Anthropic has more leverage to dictate terms because demand is so hot, BI's Ben Bergman exclusively reports.
2. The iPhone manufacturer has a new golden child. Sales from the Cloud and Networking division at Foxconn, the company known for being Apple's factory floor, just surpassed its consumer electronics business. The pivotal moment marks the shift from mobile to AI, writes BI's Alistar Barr, as Foxconn, once the backbone of smartphones, is now building the infrastructure of the AI age.
3. See the pitch deck an AI scribing startup used to raise $243 million. Ambience Healthcare, which uses AI to automate the medical transcription process, counts A16z and Oak HC/FT among its investors. See the 15 slides it used to raise its Series C.
3 things in business
1. Broke: MSNBC. Bespoke: MS NOW. MSNBC is taking a new name, My Source News Opinion World, when it officially spins off from Comcast at the end of the year. Big names like Joe Scarborough and Rachel Maddow are supportive, but company insiders who spoke to BI struck a less effusive chord.
2. A hot new bombshell enters the streaming wars. The world's biggest comics platform, Webtoon, is getting into vertical video with the hopes of wooing Gen Z, BI's Lucia Moses exclusively reports. It's planning on using real actors, not AI.
3. Trump is gutting a policy that supercharged Rivian, Tesla, and Lucid. The EV carmakers make billions of dollars from selling regulatory credits to rivals. Now the Trump administration is repealing those EV regulations, and the carmakers are warning of big losses as a result.
In other news
Starbucks has a new plan for raises: a flat 2% pay hike for salaried staff.
Tesla teases a new Model Y L variant is 'coming soon' in a video posted to Chinese social media.
Morgan Stanley sees the AI productivity boom adding $16 trillion to the stock market's value.
The AI startup Nominal wants to address the accountant shortage. Read the pitch deck that it used to raise $20 million.
What tariffs? S&P 500 companies are wrapping up one of the strongest earnings seasons on record.
Boat Trader and YachtWorld owner has a chokehold on the US marine vessel market, an antitrust lawsuit alleges.
Ukraine's electronic warfare fight against Russian drones is so chaotic that its own are getting caught in the crossfire.
Why yearslong bear market slumps may be a thing of the past.
What's happening today
Home Depot reports earnings.
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