US pressure on countries during tariff talks will fail, says analyst
China is Asean's largest trading partner, with Asean-China trade reaching US$982.3 billion (RM4.25 trillion) in 2024. (Wikimedia commons pic)
PETALING JAYA : Any attempts by the Trump administration to arm-twist nations, including Asean countries, into curbing trade with China during tariff negotiations will fail, a political analyst said.
The US cannot force countries to stop trading or reduce trade with China given it is the 'manufacturing centre of the world', said James Chin, professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania.
James Chin.
'Countries cannot stop trading with China as its goods are the cheapest and have the best quality. So, even if the US applies pressure, it's not going to work.
'The Chinese produce so many consumer products that you cannot just run away from China,' he told FMT.
The reality is that even consumers in Malaysia will be unhappy if trade with China is blocked, he added.
A recent Bloomberg report, citing sources, said the administration of US President Donald Trump is preparing to pressure countries seeking tariff reductions or exemptions to curb trade with China.
Also, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this month the countries negotiating trade deals with the US should 'approach China as a group' together with Washington.
In response, China has warned countries against striking an economic deal with the US at its expense, ratcheting up the temperature in a spiralling trade war between the world's two biggest economies.
Malaysia, which has been slapped with a 24% reciprocal tariff, is among over 70 countries seeking negotiations with the US over the tariffs.
Trump has since paused implementation of the tariffs for 90 days to allow for trade negotiations. However, a 10% universal tariff remains in place.
Chin said that whatever tariff deal Malaysia strikes with the US, will not harm China's interests or any other country's interests.
He noted that Malaysia is one of the world's top 20 trading countries and has long been trading with countries around the world.
'So, it doesn't mean if you do a trade deal with the US, it will harm your other trading partners.
'It simply means the US and Malaysia will have an easier time trading going forward. So, it will not affect China at all,' he said, adding Malaysia is 'as pro-US as it is pro-China' in terms of trade.
He also said that traditionally, trade and politics are seen as separate.
'Trade is uncoupled from the political relationship. It's just that Trump is making it part of the political game as he's trying to stop the rise of China,' he said.
Asean's common strategy
Chin said Asean countries will be pursuing the same strategy, which is to negotiate directly with the Trump administration.
'It doesn't mean this (bilateral negotiations with the US) will harm their relationship with other countries. Most countries are mature enough to understand that. Trading links and political links are totally separate things,' he added.
For Malaysia, and Asean, China remains their largest trading partner. In 2024, Malaysia-China trade hit a record US$212 billion (RM917.4 billion), marking the 16th consecutive year China was our No. 1 trading partner.
Since 2013, Asean-China trade has grown on average 7.5% a year, reaching US$982.3 billion (RM4.25 trillion) in 2024.
While China has remained Asean's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, it has been China's top trading partner for the past five years, with Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia being its top three trading partners within Southeast Asia.
Given the massive trade between Asean and China, it would be suicidal for Asean nations to even contemplate breaking this pivotal relationship for any crumbs the US may throw their way during the tariff negotiations.
Even Japan, arguably the US' strongest ally in Asia, intends to push back against any US effort to force it into an economic bloc aligned against China.
This is because of the importance of Tokyo's trade ties with Beijing, its biggest trading partner, according to a recent Bloomberg report quoting current and former Japanese government officials.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Sun
2 hours ago
- The Sun
Trump hails troop deployment as California readies legal battle
LOS ANGELES: US President Donald Trump said Thursday that Los Angeles was 'safe and sound' for the past two nights, crediting his deployment of thousands of troops to quell anti-deportation protests, as California prepared for a legal showdown over his unprecedented move. With protests spreading across the United States, a night-time curfew has been in place in its second-largest city with authorities tackling vandalism and looting that scarred a few city blocks. 'Our great National Guard, with a little help from the Marines, put the L.A. Police in a position to effectively do their job,' Trump said on Truth Social, adding that without the military the city 'would be a crime scene like we haven't seen in years.' The mostly peaceful protests ignited last week over an escalation in efforts to apprehend migrants in the country illegally, but there were also pockets of violence, including the burning of self-driving taxis and hurling stones at police. Trump deployed several thousand National Guard troops and 700 active-duty marines over the objections of Democratic California governor Gavin Newsom, the first such action by a US president in decades. Trump charged that the governor 'had totally lost control of the situation.' 'He should be saying THANK YOU for saving his ass, instead of trying to justify his mistakes and incompetence,' Trump added. In Spokane, in the northwest state of Washington, another night curfew was declared after police arrested more than 30 protesters and fired pepper balls to disperse crowds, officials said. In Seattle, Washington state's biggest city, police arrested eight people after a dumpster was set on fire and projectiles were thrown. Three people were arrested in Tucson, Arizona, following clashes with police, the Arizona Republic reported. Protests also took place in Las Vegas, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, Milwaukee, Chicago, Atlanta, and Boston, according to CNN. 'Democracy is under assault' Trump won the election last year partly on promises to combat what he claims is an 'invasion' by undocumented migrants. 'If I wasn't there... Los Angeles would have been burning to the ground,' he told reporters Wednesday Around 1,000 of the 4,700 troops Trump deployed were actively guarding facilities and working alongside ICE agents, said Scott Sherman, Deputy Commanding General Army North, who is leading operations. The rest -- including 700 active duty Marines -- were mustering or undergoing training to deal with civil disturbances, he said. The Pentagon has said the deployment will cost taxpayers $134 million. Newsom, a Democrat widely viewed as eying a 2028 presidential run, has accused Trump of escalating the confrontation for political gain. He warned earlier this week that the militarization would creep beyond his state's borders, saying 'democracy is under assault right before our eyes.' Lawyers for California were expected in court on Thursday to seek an order blocking troops from accompanying immigration officers as they arrest migrants. Trump administration lawyers called the application a 'crass political stunt.' Military parade A nationwide 'No Kings' movement was expected on Saturday, when Trump will attend a highly unusual military parade in the US capital. The parade, featuring warplanes and tanks, has been organized to celebrate the 250th anniversary of the founding of the US Army but also happens to be the day of Trump's 79th birthday. The Trump administration is painting the wave of protests as a violent threat to the nation, requiring military force to support regular immigration agents and police. But Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said the crisis had been manufactured in Washington. 'A week ago, everything was peaceful in the city of Los Angeles,' she told reporters. 'Things began to be difficult on Friday when raids took place... that is the cause of the problems. 'This was provoked by the White House.' Arrests by masked and armed men continued Wednesday. A pastor in the LA suburb of Downey said five armed men driving out-of-state cars grabbed a Spanish-speaking man in the church's parking lot. When she challenged the men and asked for their badge numbers and names, they refused. 'They did point their rifle at me and said, 'You need to get back,'' Lopez told broadcaster KTLA.
The Star
2 hours ago
- The Star
Micron expands US investments to $200 billion amid Trump's onshoring push
FILE PHOTO: Micron Technology's solid-state drive for data center customers is presented at a product launch event in San Francisco, U.S., October 24, 2019. REUTERS/Stephen Nellis (Reuters) -Memory chipmaker Micron Technology said on Thursday it is expanding its U.S. investments to about $200 billion, planning to dole out $150 billion for manufacturing amid President Donald Trump's push to onshore sprawling semiconductor supply chains. This marks an additional investment of $30 billion, beyond prior plans, Micron said, sending its shares down about 1% in premarket trading. Micron now joins a litany of U.S. tech firms and chipmakers who have announced hundreds of billions of dollars in domestic investments against the backdrop of Trump's efforts to produce more semiconductors on American soil. AI chip leader and Micron customer Nvidia said in April it is planning to build AI servers worth as much as $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years with help from partners such as Taiwan's TSMC . Micron's additional investment will center around building a second leading-edge memory fab in Boise, Idaho and expanding a manufacturing facility in Manassas, Virginia. "These investments are designed to allow Micron to meet expected market demand, maintain share and support Micron's goal of producing 40% of its DRAM in the U.S," the company said, referring to a type of widely employed memory chip. Micron's investment aims to bring advanced packaging capabilities to the U.S.- a manufacturing technique essential to high bandwidth memory (HBM), which is employed extensively in the AI market, the company said. HBM is often characterized as a type of stacked DRAM technology. "Micron's investment in advanced memory manufacturing and HBM capabilities in the U.S., with support from (the) Trump administration, is an important step forward for the AI ecosystem," Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in a statement. The company will also dedicate about $50 billion to R&D, Micron said. (Reporting by Arsheeya Bajwa in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva and Maju Samuel)
The Sun
2 hours ago
- The Sun
Asean's ambition of being world's fourth biggest economy by 2030 well within reach: Tengku Zafrul
KUALA LUMPUR: Asean's ambition to become the world's fourth-largest economy by 2030 is well within reach, provided the region sustains an annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate between 4% and 5%. Investment, Trade and Industry Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz highlighted the region's robust growth prospects at the official launch of the Asean Economic Community (AEC) Strategic Plan today. 'Our economists have thoroughly analysed the growth projections for all Asean economies under current conditions, and we are confident that the targets are indeed achievable,' he said. Tengku Zafrul noted that the Asean Secretariat projects regional GDP growth at 4.7% for 2025, as presented at the latest Asean Economic Ministers' Meeting. 'But things are very dynamic. It depends on the global economic situation. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) will also produce their forecast of global growth,' he said, stressing the need for vigilance amid shifting external factors. Tengku Zafrul emphasised the AEC Strategic Plan's role in keeping Asean's policies current and responsive to evolving business needs and emerging challenges. 'As the first instalment of this long-term vision, the plan serves as a comprehensive roadmap that outlines a clear and actionable path forward,' he said. The plan has been carefully crafted to implement the economic aspects of the Asean Community Vision 2045, leveraging the region's vast opportunities and potential. A key pillar of the plan is the establishment of a forward-looking digital economic framework, which is expected to double Asean's digital economy to US$2 trillion (RM4.5 trillion) by 2030. The focus on digital transformation, alongside sustained economic integration and resilience, positions Asean to not only achieve its growth targets but also to strengthen its global influence. On the domestic front, Tengku Zafrul sees positive signals from foreign investors in Malaysia, with no indication of existing investors withdrawing their commitments despite ongoing global uncertainties. 'So far, no existing investors have expressed any intention to exit Malaysia. They remain committed to their investments, and no cancellations have been announced.' However, he observed that new investors are adopting a more cautious, 'wait and see' approach, influenced by heightened geopolitical tensions – particularly between the United States and China – and broader global volatility. Looking ahead, Tengku Zafrul said his trade negotiations in Washington on June 18 will focus on reducing tariffs on Malaysian exports. 'The negotiations are essentially to address the current tariff structure, where the US has imposed a 24% tariff on Malaysia. Our first goal is to bring that down.' The second objective is to identify key sectors where Malaysia believes tariffs should be reduced even below the 10% floor, targeting industries important to both Malaysian exporters and the US economy. In April, the US government announced new tariff measures affecting more than 60 countries, including Malaysia. The implementation of these tariffs has been paused for 90 days to allow room for negotiations.
