After Statistical Downturn, Is Patrick Mahomes No Longer the NFL's QB1?

Fox News

17 hours ago

Take a peak around the Internet and you'll see a clear consensus: Patrick Mahomes is the No. 1 quarterback in the NFL.
I'm here to tell you that picking the NFL's best QB is not so simple.
I understand that sounds like clickbait. I promise this will be a nuanced examination. Bear with me, OK? Because when you consider that Mahomes has played in the past three Super Bowls, he has a clear-cut case for being No. 1. Not to mention that, back in 2022, he threw for more than 5,200 yards and, back in 2018, he threw for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns.
And still, if you look at who was playing quarterback at the highest level last season, it's fair to point to … someone else.
To be clear, I ranked Mahomes No. 1 in my QB rankings this offseason. That was more of a projection, though, with the thought that his past two years have been outliers. And that, with the addition of a strong left tackle and an improved pass-catching core, Mahomes could reclaim the throne. But based upon his recent play? His recent stats? His recent film? The case for Mahomes gets more complicated.
Mahomes himself admits that he didn't play up to his own standards last season.
"There's plays on the football field that I didn't make last year that I've made in previous years," Mahomes told USA Today. "At the end of the day, I'm going to do whatever it takes to win, whether that's passing for a lot of yards, not passing for a lot of yards. But I think if I play better, that's going to make it better for the team."
There was no talk of Mahomes in the MVP discussion last year. That was a neck-and-neck race between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Joe Burrow was in the mix, too, but he fell out because his Bengals couldn't make the playoffs (due to one of the league's worst defenses).
If you want the league's most dynamic dual threat, it's Jackson.
If you want the strongest arm, it's Allen.
If you want the league's best passer, it's Burrow.
Even the Madden ratings have shifted. In Madden 26, Allen and Jackson got their usual 99s. Burrow checks in at 97, up from 93 in Madden 25. But after six straight years in the "99 Club," Mahomes dropped to a 95 rating this year.
Over the past two years, the case for Mahomes as the league's QB1 rests upon three things: 1) Super Bowl appearances; 2) career winning percentage (79.5%; second all time); and 3) clutch performances.
We often use championships to measure the greatest. (Think: Tom Brady.) And we often use counting stats to measure the best. (Think: Peyton Manning.) There's no question that Mahomes is the greatest QB of his generation.
But there's nuance to the discussion of who is currently the NFL's best quarterback. It's fair to question whether Mahomes is still the league's QB1.
His counting stats have regressed in the past three years. I mentioned his incredible 2022 season: 5,250 passing yards, 41 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions. In 2023, however, those numbers fell off a cliff. Those watching closely saw that Mahomes had a way of managing games that wasn't exactly elegant or eye-popping. But it got the job done. In 2024, it was more of the same. The Kansas City Chiefs went 15-2 during the regular season and made it to the Super Bowl.
But Mahomes' 2022 season was in an entirely different league from his performance last season. His total EPA (expected points added) was 213.2 in 2022 but only 78 in 2024, per Next Gen Stats. He posted a success percentage of 53.3 in 2022 and 49.9% in 2024. His completion percentage over expected was -.2% in 2022 and -1.8% in 2024. His sack percentage was up to 6.2% in 2024 from 3.5% in 2022.
Mahomes said it. The stats confirm it: He isn't converting the same number of game-changing plays as in past years.
In the case of EPA and EPA/dropback, these last two seasons were the worst of his career. And it's not just a slump by Mahomes' standards. In 2024, Jackson (173), Allen (153.3) and Burrow (82.7) posted better EPA totals. Heck, so did Jared Goff (140.8), Baker Mayfield (99.6) and Jayden Daniels (98.2).
Mahomes wasn't dominant last season, not like we're accustomed to seeing from him. And not like his peers.
That's why he wasn't in the MVP conversation, not just because of voter fatigue. It's also because he wasn't lifting his team in the same way as Allen or Jackson lifted theirs.
So here's the next question: Does EPA tell enough of the story?
Because the counterpoint — that, likely, many Chiefs fans are wishing they could convey to me — is that Mahomes didn't need any additional points in all but two games in which he played: the loss to the Bills in the regular season and the loss to the Eagles in the Super Bowl. And the Chiefs beat the Bills in the playoffs so, really, it was just the Super Bowl where Mahomes needed the higher EPA. In that case, it might seem like nitpicking to criticize Mahomes' low EPA. Last year, the Chiefs won an incredible 17 games, with 10 one-possession wins.
But those 10 one-possession games have become a Rorschach test, where the beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Mahomes' detractors would argue that, had he played better, the Chiefs wouldn't have had to be cardiac kids. It didn't need to come down to a blocked field goal in Week 10 against the Broncos. It didn't need to come down to an off-the-upright field goal by Chiefs kicker Matthew Wright in Week 14. Mahomes should have been better — and not left it up to the special teams.
There's some truth to that.
Mahomes' camp will contend that he got just enough points — and through clutch play, not luck. And further to that point, in terms of clutch moments during the regular season and postseason last year, Mahomes is third in the NFL in total EPA (54) on third and fourth downs — and he's also third in total EPA (23) in third and fourth downs in the fourth quarter. That's what you see on film: a guy who steps up in the biggest moments.
"In the biggest moments, you can depend on him the most. That's clear," Brady said of Mahomes on "The Joel Klatt Show" podcast.
Mahomes remains elite in just about every advanced statistical category, just like the other three QBs that everyone has come to respect: Allen, Jackson and Burrow. And it helps Mahomes that he seems to beat those guys in every meaningful game. Burrow is the only one of the three with a postseason win over Mahomes. And that might be the category that matters most to everyone at this point. When ranking Mahomes over the other three, it's really that the other three can't seem to beat Mahomes.
And what else matters, if not head-to-head wins in playoff games?
For a long time, a QB's wins-and-losses record was atop his résumé. Recently, QB evaluation has grown more complicated, with the formula fluctuating around wins, film, counting stats and advanced stats. Each variable's value rises and falls based on groupthink. Quarterback wins, for example, went completely out of vogue about two years ago. But now, given Mahomes' befuddling incongruities, people seem to be valuing wins more.
Because Mahomes did not win the Super Bowl last season, and because he was not in the mix for MVP — because he did not elevate his team in undeniable fashion — I'm not sure he's the league's best QB. I'll rank him there because he's trustworthy. Because he's as likely as any of the others to turn back into that guy. The Guy. But if we're looking at last season in a vacuum, I see better cases for Jackson or Allen or even Jalen Hurts.
Hurts, after all, reminded everyone that Mahomes and the Chiefs are beatable. In the biggest moments. In the biggest game.
And perhaps that's what makes the 2025 season so compelling for Mahomes. It could be the year when he loses that QB1 label. He's as vulnerable as ever, especially if — for example — Allen, Jackson or Burrow wins a Super Bowl.
Will Mahomes prove people right — that he's still QB1? At what point will he stop being the safe bet? Might we see another year of good-but-not-best play?
Mahomes does seem to have a strong left tackle again. Rookie Josh Simmons appears to have won the starting job based on his incredible play during training camp. The picture at the pass-catcher spot isn't totally clear. Xavier Worthy looked strong at the end of last season, but there are big questions about the others. Travis Kelce is aging, Hollywood Brown is oft-injured, Rashee Rice is returning from injury and likely to serve a four-to-six-game suspension, and Jalen Royals is a rookie. Still, there's reason for optimism.
Mahomes is the most successful quarterback we've seen since Brady. But even Brady experienced years when his play dipped. That's what seems to be happening with Mahomes, even with his team making three Super Bowls in a row.
The Chiefs might have been as dangerous as ever, but I'm just not sure Mahomes has been.
Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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