Analysis: Not your typical byelection, Arthabaska will set the tone for Quebec's political season

Montreal Gazette

9 hours ago

Quebec Politics
By
QUEBEC — It's been anything but a sleepy summer byelection. This vote actually matters.
When citizens in the central Quebec riding of Arthabaska go to the polls Monday after what has been a surprisingly intense campaign, they will be choosing a new MNA but also setting the scene for what promises to be a tumultuous fall political season that will include a cabinet shuffle by Premier François Legault.
While it's pretty clear the 62,000 voters in the riding will use the byelection to express their discontent with Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec government — which stands to lose a third byelection in a row after Jean-Talon and Terrebonne — how those votes land will say something about the tone of debate in the weeks ahead.
Will citizens buy into Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime's line that his party is the one that represents change, standing up for right of centre voters who have never had a seat in the legislature even though his party got 12.91 per cent of the vote in the 2022 general election?
Electing Duhaime would give him a huge boost, allowing him to rise in the legislature regularly to directly question the government, bagging excellent media attention at the same time.
It's no wonder Duhaime has thrown everything he has into the race in Arthabaska. Plastered on election posters all over the riding, which includes the city of Victoriaville, Duhaime's campaign slogan, 'Du vrai,' is in itself a jab at the CAQ, a party he says has strayed from its roots over the last seven years in office.
This will be Duhaime's second attempt at winning a seat, so the stakes for him personally are high. His Conservatives placed second in the riding in 2022. There has not been an MNA elected under a Conservative banner in Quebec's legislature since 1935.
Given the riding's demographics, right-of-centre blue-collar nationalist Duhaime, on paper, has a shot at winning, said polling analyst Philippe J. Fournier, creator of the the Qc125 poll aggregator.
The region leans right, voting Conservative federally and for 'anything but the Parti Québécois,' provincially. It was voting CAQ even before the party took power in 2018. The CAQ has held the seat since 2012, regularly winning 60 per cent of the vote — which now appears to have collapsed.
But Duhaime remains a polarizing figure, making the byelection a race between him and the PQ. His opponents have been quick to recycle many of his controversial comments from his past days as a shock radio host in Quebec City.
There have been reports from the barbecue and summer-festival circuits in the riding of an 'anybody but Duhaime' vote turning out Monday. In the lone campaign debate, held in July, Duhaime was the main target of his opponents, who questioned his party's more controversial ideas.
Duhaime, for example, favours a greater place for private health care. He blames the CAQ government for high gas prices in Quebec because the province maintains a cap-and-trade carbon emissions system. which funds projects to reduce greenhouse gases.
Fournier says voters face the dilemma of voting strategically.
'People are saying, 'To block the PQ, we have to vote Duhaime,' but people are very uncomfortable doing that,' Fournier said. 'There are not that many sovereignists there. This is a big step.'
For a byelection, interest has been unusually high, with 26 per cent of voters — about 15,000 people — casting ballots in advance polls held the weekend of Aug. 2-3. There were scenes of citizens lining up to vote.
Some voters might opt for a more middle-of-the-road vote, which could favour the PQ, Fournier said. The PQ has come up with a star candidate, former Radio-Canada Quebec City radio morning man Alex Boissonneault.
Unlike Duhaime, Boissonneault is from the riding, which is midway between Montreal and Quebec City in central Quebec. He grew up in St-Ferdinand on the shores of picturesque William Lake.
He started his campaign on the defensive, admitting he had a reckless youth. He was arrested in 2001 when he was a member of an extreme-left radical group that plotted to take down fences at the Summit of the Americas in Quebec City.
The issue, however, does not seem to have hampered his campaign. The Qc125 vote projection site saying the PQ and Conservatives are statistically tied..
Winning a third byelection in a row would have a big impact on the PQ. It would be a sign the party under leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon can maintain the momentum it has experienced in the polls over the last two years. That's important for the PQ as Quebec gradually shifts toward a general election in 2026.
It would be the first time since 1998 that the party won the riding and would further confirm the impression that the CAQ is in decline.
The CAQ has fought back, recruiting well-known local candidate Keven Brasseur, the former president of the Chambre de commerce et industrie des Bois-Francs et de L'Érable. He, too, has played up his roots in the riding.
A former president of the CAQ's youth wing, Brasseur has conceded that defending the CAQ's record on everything from the SAAQclic fiasco to Northvolt to health care has been challenging, but said after almost eight years in power, it's normal that some people are disappointed in the government.
While some have said the byelection is a first test of the newly elected leader of the Quebec Liberals, Pablo Rodriguez, the party argues Arthabaska has not been fertile territory for the party for many years. The Liberals, nevertheless, came up with a local candidate, Chantale Marchand.
She was executive director of the Fondation de L'Ermitage, an organization devoted to improving the quality of life of seniors.
Québec solidaire candidate Pascale Fortin ran unsuccessfully in the 2022 general election.
Perhaps anticipating a defeat, Legault will be in the riding Monday night as the votes are counted and intends to show voters he has heard their message and will move quickly after the byelection to jump-start his government.
In June, when he revealed Brasseur would be the candidate, Legault took the unusual step of announcing he is planning to shuffle his cabinet in the fall.
That exercise will happen around Labour Day, government sources said this week. Legault wants to give his new team of ministers a few weeks to get a handle on their files before the legislature resumes sitting Sept. 16.
Not fond of shuffles to begin with, Legault will announce major changes in government that he says will respond to the concerns of voters. It can be argued the shuffle is overdue. Some of his ministers have been in the same job since the 2018 election.
'I think you would have to be on another planet to not realize there are Quebecers who are disappointed with certain issues handled by the CAQ,' Legault said in June. 'This is what has initiated my desire to make changes.'
Legault has convened a meeting of his current cabinet for Wednesday, followed by a full meeting of his 86-member caucus Thursday. Legault has said he wants to hear the ideas of his caucus as he prepares the shuffle.