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Opinion: Could the PQ'S byelection win spell the end for Legault?
Opinion: Could the PQ'S byelection win spell the end for Legault?

Montreal Gazette

time12-08-2025

  • Politics
  • Montreal Gazette

Opinion: Could the PQ'S byelection win spell the end for Legault?

It was Éric Duhaime's best shot at finally making his official entry in the National Assembly. In the end, it turned out to be — yet again — another miss. Despite polls and projections suggesting he was neck and neck with Parti Québécois candidate Alex Boisonneault, the Quebec Conservative leader lost the byelection in the riding of Arthabaska by a bruising 10-point margin Monday evening. It's quite a setback for Duhaime, who was hoping for a victory that could have given his party crucial momentum, just a year ahead of the next provincial general election. The media exposure his daily presence in Parliament would have brought him — along with the legitimacy of being an elected official — would have certainly helped getting his party's message across to a wider audience. The kind of turning point that can transform a somehow marginal political movement into a genuine alternative in the eyes of many voters. For a man who has spent years touring the province as the self-proclaimed voice of Quebec's political outsiders, the loss is more than just disappointing — it's a squandered opportunity. Still, Duhaime seems to remain optimistic about his party's future. In his concession speech, he made it clear that he intends to lead the provincial Conservatives into the next general election. But will members of his party still want of a captain who can't steer the ship into port, even in a riding like Arthabaska where the vast majority of voters support the Conservatives at the federal level? Sometimes, very local byelections can have a national impact. Think of Geneviève Guilbault's victory when the CAQ caused an upset in Louis-Hébert, wrestling away this traditionally Liberal stronghold following Sam Hamad's departure, just a year before the 2018 election. All of a sudden, it cemented François Legault's image as a serious contender for premier in the minds of many Quebec voters, paving the way for his majority government 12 months later. The PQ, which has consistently been leading in voting intentions across the province for the past several months, is now perfectly positioned to write its own version of that story. By winning in Arthabaska for the first time in nearly three decades — its third byelection win in a row, and its third victory out of the four by-elections held in the province since 2022 — it is confirming once more its current position as the leading political force in Quebec. But in politics, a lot can happen in a single year and Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon's fortunes could change at any moment. Meanwhile, the CAQ suffered a crushing defeat Monday night, finishing fourth. Its candidate, Keven Brasseur, took only seven per cent of the vote, two points behind the Quebec Liberal Party. For a party that has won every single election in this riding since its creation in 2012 — and always with massive majorities — it's a humiliating slap in the face. The result underscores just how harshly Quebecers are judging François Legault's increasingly weary government. It could as well trigger a general panic within the CAQ ranks as serious questions about the Premier's leadership will — and should — be raised. Legault still hopes he can turn things around with a major cabinet shuffle, which could take place as soon as within the next few days. But let's face it: it'll take far more than just a little game of musical chairs among ministers to stop the bleeding. About a year ago on the federal stage, Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party lost two consecutive byelections in two of its most impenetrable strongholds. Six months later, Trudeau was no longer prime minister. Could Monday's collapse signal the beginning of the end for François Legault? One thing is clear: make sure the popcorn is ready, because this fall promises to be pretty captivating in provincial politics.

Parti Québécois popularity continues with win in Quebec byelection in Arthabaska
Parti Québécois popularity continues with win in Quebec byelection in Arthabaska

National Observer

time12-08-2025

  • Politics
  • National Observer

Parti Québécois popularity continues with win in Quebec byelection in Arthabaska

The Parti Québécois sailed to a third-straight Quebec byelection win on Monday, cementing the sovereigntist party's momentum ahead of the 2026 provincial election and dealing a crushing blow to Premier François Legault 's governing party. Former journalist Alex Boissonneault handily defeated Quebec Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime in the Arthabaska riding, flipping a seat that Legault's Coalition Avenir Quebec has held since 2012. While polls had suggested Boissonneault and Duhaime were neck-and-neck, the PQ candidate captured over 46 per cent of the vote, compared to just over 35 per cent for Duhaime. "Tonight, we have achieved an extraordinary feat," Boissonneault told supporters. "We have just reclaimed the magnificent corner of the country that is ours." The sovereigntist party also won in Jean-Talon in 2023 and Terrebonne earlier this year. The party sits fourth in seat count in the province's legislature, but has been leading in the polls for the better part of two years. Boissonneault, who was born and grew up in the riding, campaigned on a promise to restore a "broken social contract" that sees Quebecers pay high taxes without getting enough in return. Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon called the victory "highly significant," noting it was the party's first win in the riding in 27 years. "It's also a very significant victory because we're adding another key piece, another pillar of what could constitute a team capable of replacing the CAQ and forming a solid government in 2026," he told a jubilant watch party in the riding midway between Montreal and Quebec City. Supporters at the Parti Québécois event exploded with joy when the results were announced shortly before 10 p.m., waving blue-and-white Quebec flags. They chanted "Alex! Alex!" and, during St-Pierre Plamondon's speech, "Quebec! A country!" St-Pierre Plamondon, who has promised to hold a third independence vote by 2030 if his party forms government, said the result is also "a defeat for parties who had the fear of a referendum as their only argument." Duhaime had been hoping to win a first legislature seat for the party he revived from obscurity when he took over as leader in 2021. During the campaign, he advocated for scrapping electric vehicle mandates and the carbon-pricing system as well as increased privatization in health care. Duhaime said Monday that the byelection was a missed opportunity to correct what he has termed the "distortion" of the 2022 election that saw his party capture 13 per cent of the vote but no seats. "There are more than one out of eight Quebecers who will have zero out of 125 representatives in the worst democratic distortion in the history of Quebec," he said. "Today it wasn't just the Conservative Party of Quebec that lost, it's Quebec democracy." However, he noted that his party started "almost from zero" four years ago. "We're the party that progresses all the time," he said, promising to redouble efforts ahead of the 2026 election. Monday's defeat was also a bitter loss for the governing Coalition Avenir Québec, which lost a riding it has held since 2012 with a distant fourth-place finish. In a speech delivered before the final result was announced, the premier placed the blame on himself. 'I take full responsibility for today's defeat,' he told supporters. Legault acknowledged voters' unhappiness with his government, citing the disastrous rollout of an online platform for the auto insurance board, a massive investment in an electric battery plant whose future is uncertain, and a failure to improve the efficiency of public services. 'I think the people of Arthabaska-L'Erable were the spokespersons for all Quebecers,' he said in a speech alongside candidate Keven Brasseur. 'And they sent us a very clear, very direct message: they are disappointed. Quebecers are disappointed with our government.' Legault indicated he still planned to run for reelection next year, telling supporters he felt his experience was still needed to help reshape Quebec's economy. The Quebec Liberals, who have seen a bump in support under new leader Pablo Rodriguez, climbed to third after finishing fifth in the riding in the 2022 election. The byelection was triggered after Coalition Avenir Québec member Éric Lefebvre resigned to run successfully for the Conservative Party of Canada in the last federal election.

Parti Québécois rise continues with win in Quebec byelection in Arthabaska
Parti Québécois rise continues with win in Quebec byelection in Arthabaska

Global News

time12-08-2025

  • Politics
  • Global News

Parti Québécois rise continues with win in Quebec byelection in Arthabaska

The Parti Québécois sailed to a third-straight Quebec byelection win on Monday, cementing the sovereigntist party's momentum ahead of the 2026 provincial election and dealing a crushing blow to Premier François Legault's governing party. Former journalist Alex Boissonneault handily defeated Quebec Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime in the Arthabaska riding, flipping a seat that Legault's Coalition Avenir Quebec has held since 2012. While polls had suggested Boissonneault and Duhaime were neck-and-neck, the PQ candidate captured over 46 per cent of the vote, compared to just over 35 per cent for Duhaime. 'Tonight, we have achieved an extraordinary feat,' Boissonneault told supporters. 'We have just reclaimed the magnificent corner of the country that is ours.' The sovereigntist party also won in Jean-Talon in 2023 and Terrebonne earlier this year. The party sits fourth in seat count in the province's legislature, but has been leading in the polls for the better part of two years. Story continues below advertisement Boissonneault, who was born and grew up in the riding, campaigned on a promise to restore a 'broken social contract' that sees Quebecers pay high taxes without getting enough in return. Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon called the victory 'highly significant,' noting it was the party's first win in the riding in 27 years. Get daily National news Get the day's top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day. Sign up for daily National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy 'It's also a very significant victory because we're adding another key piece, another pillar of what could constitute a team capable of replacing the CAQ and forming a solid government in 2026,' he told a jubilant watch party in the riding midway between Montreal and Quebec City. Supporters at the Parti Québécois event exploded with joy when the results were announced shortly before 10 p.m., waving blue-and-white Quebec flags. They chanted 'Alex! Alex!' and, during St-Pierre Plamondon's speech, 'Quebec! A country!' St-Pierre Plamondon, who has promised to hold a third independence vote by 2030 if his party forms government, said the result is also 'a defeat for parties who had the fear of a referendum as their only argument.' Duhaime had been hoping to win a first legislature seat for the party he revived from obscurity when he took over as leader in 2021. During the campaign, he advocated for scrapping electric vehicle mandates and the carbon-pricing system as well as increased privatization in health care. Duhaime said Monday that the byelection was a missed opportunity to correct what he has termed the 'distortion' of the 2022 election that saw his party capture 13 per cent of the vote but no seats. Story continues below advertisement 'There are more than one out of eight Quebecers who will have zero out of 125 representatives in the worst democratic distortion in the history of Quebec,' he said. 'Today it wasn't just the Conservative Party of Quebec that lost, it's Quebec democracy.' However, he noted that his party started 'almost from zero' four years ago. 'We're the party that progresses all the time,' he said, promising to redouble efforts ahead of the 2026 election. Monday's defeat was also a bitter loss for the governing Coalition Avenir Québec, which lost a riding it has held since 2012 with a distant fourth-place finish. In a speech delivered before the final result was announced, the premier placed the blame on himself. 'I take full responsibility for today's defeat,' he told supporters. Legault acknowledged voters' unhappiness with his government, citing the disastrous rollout of an online platform for the auto insurance board, a massive investment in an electric battery plant whose future is uncertain, and a failure to improve the efficiency of public services. 'I think the people of Arthabaska-L'Erable were the spokespersons for all Quebecers,' he said in a speech alongside candidate Keven Brasseur. 'And they sent us a very clear, very direct message: they are disappointed. Quebecers are disappointed with our government.' Legault indicated he still planned to run for reelection next year, telling supporters he felt his experience was still needed to help reshape Quebec's economy. Story continues below advertisement The Quebec Liberals, who have seen a bump in support under new leader Pablo Rodriguez, climbed to third after finishing fifth in the riding in the 2022 election. The byelection was triggered after Coalition Avenir Québec member Éric Lefebvre resigned to run successfully for the Conservative Party of Canada in the last federal election.

Conservatives hoping for first seat as two-way race emerges in Quebec byelection
Conservatives hoping for first seat as two-way race emerges in Quebec byelection

Global News

time08-08-2025

  • Politics
  • Global News

Conservatives hoping for first seat as two-way race emerges in Quebec byelection

A polarizing figure who railed against pandemic restrictions and wants to break Quebec's consensus on carbon pricing could be days away from claiming a long-coveted seat in the provincial legislature. The stakes are high for Éric Duhaime, the former shock-jock at the helm of Quebec's Conservative party. Despite four years on the job, Duhaime has not yet been able get any members of his party elected. But if he comes out on top in a Monday byelection in the central Quebec riding of Arthabaska, Duhaime's unabashedly right-wing presence in Quebec's national assembly will shift the political landscape in a province that has not elected a Conservative party member in 90 years. 'It could be a huge breakthrough,' Duhaime said in an interview. 'And it could change politics in Canada (through) having a true Conservative party in Quebec.' Story continues below advertisement A two-way race has emerged in the riding between Duhaime and the sovereigntist Parti Québécois, which has been leading in Quebec polls for the better part of two years. The governing Coalition Avenir Québec, which has won the riding easily in every election since the party's founding in 2011, seems poised to suffer its third consecutive byelection defeat amid widespread dissatisfaction with the government of Premier François Legault. Parti Québécois candidate Alex Boissonneault, a well-known former journalist, said voters are looking to his party as the best option to replace the CAQ government in the next Quebec election, set for October 2026. But he concedes that some of his support is coming from people voting strategically against Duhaime. In the fiercely fought campaign for Arthabaska, local concerns have given way to a referendum on the Conservative leader, said political analyst Alain Rayes, a former federal Conservative MP for the region. 'When we talk to people on the ground, it's really, 'We want to give Éric Duhaime a chance,' or, 'We don't want anything to do with Éric Duhaime and we don't want to be the ones who open the door, who roll out the carpet toward the national assembly,'' he said. Get daily National news Get the day's top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day. Sign up for daily National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy Quebec's first premier was a Conservative, and the original Conservative Party of Quebec dominated politics in the province for 30 years after Confederation. The party's support collapsed at the end of the 19th century, however, and conservatives did not form government again until the ascension of Maurice Duplessis's right-leaning Union Nationale in the 1930s. Story continues below advertisement The emergence of Quebec's independence movement and the Parti Québécois in the 1960s created a new divide on the question of sovereignty that would define provincial politics for decades to come, with the Quebec Liberals as the default choice for federalists. It wasn't until the 2018 election of the right-leaning Coalition Avenir Québec – a nationalist party promising not to hold a referendum – that separatism took a back seat as the dominant issue in Quebec politics. It was in this context that Duhaime took the reins in 2021 of the Conservative Party of Quebec, newly reconstituted a little over a decade earlier. Duhaime, formerly a conservative talk-radio host, built up the party's base by tapping into frustration over pandemic health restrictions, and now presents himself as the voice of a growing number of Quebecers who don't see their values reflected by any of the province's four major parties. 'They're all proposing a little bit less or a little bit more of the same model,' said Duhaime, who describes himself as a longtime friend of federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. 'It's the interventionist model. We're elsewhere. We're saying, 'Look, this is over.'' In recent months, Duhaime has kept himself in the headlines by calling for the abolition of Quebec's carbon-pricing system after the federal carbon levy was scrapped in April – a position not shared by any party with seats in the legislature. 'There are several subjects on which there is almost unanimity in the national assembly,' said political analyst Antonine Yaccarini. 'And the Conservative party wants to break that unanimity.' Story continues below advertisement In the 2022 election, Duhaime's Conservatives won nearly 13 per cent of the vote – barely less than any of the main opposition parties. But because of how his support was distributed, he failed to win a single seat. 'We represent more than one Quebecer out of eight and we have zero seats out of 125,' he said. Meanwhile, the Parti Québécois is trying to prove it still has what it takes to form government next year. 'People are extremely disappointed with the CAQ government,' Boissonneault said. 'We are experiencing momentum in the Parti Québécois that it has not experienced for several years.' The sovereigntist party has already won two byelections from the CAQ in the last two years, but has faced questions about its promise to hold a third referendum on independence by 2030, given U.S. President Donald Trump's economic threats. Boissonneault downplayed that pledge this week, saying he thinks voters in Arthabaska understand sovereignty isn't the 'fundamental issue' in this campaign. If the PQ fails to win Arthabaska, Yaccarini said, it could give the impression the party has lost 'the wind in its sails.' But Duhaime's political future could also be at stake on Monday night. If he loses, Rayes, the former Conservative MP, said, 'it's going to be more and more difficult for him.' The riding, a largely agricultural region surrounding the town of Victoriaville, gave the Conservatives nearly 25 per cent of the vote during the last provincial election. The federal riding of Richmond–Arthabaska has voted Conservative since 2015. Story continues below advertisement The seat was vacated earlier this year when the Coalition Avenir Québec incumbent resigned to run for the federal Conservatives. Legault's party could now face a crushing defeat in a riding where it won more than 50 per cent of the vote in the last two elections. Poll aggregator shows the Conservatives and PQ tied at 37 per cent support in the riding, with the CAQ and the Liberals far behind at nine per cent. Keven Brasseur, the CAQ candidate and former president of the local chamber of commerce, said the polls don't align with the reaction he's getting from voters. 'There are people who tell me they want to choose someone local,' he said. 'There are a group of people who say they vote for the candidate before the political party.' Still, it's undoubtedly Duhaime who has the most to gain – and possibly the most to lose – on Monday. 'We're representing a huge percentage of the population and at least we're going to have a voice,' he said. 'There's going to be something different. I think that's what people are looking for.'

Analysis: Not your typical byelection, Arthabaska will set the tone for Quebec's political season
Analysis: Not your typical byelection, Arthabaska will set the tone for Quebec's political season

Montreal Gazette

time08-08-2025

  • Politics
  • Montreal Gazette

Analysis: Not your typical byelection, Arthabaska will set the tone for Quebec's political season

Quebec Politics By QUEBEC — It's been anything but a sleepy summer byelection. This vote actually matters. When citizens in the central Quebec riding of Arthabaska go to the polls Monday after what has been a surprisingly intense campaign, they will be choosing a new MNA but also setting the scene for what promises to be a tumultuous fall political season that will include a cabinet shuffle by Premier François Legault. While it's pretty clear the 62,000 voters in the riding will use the byelection to express their discontent with Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec government — which stands to lose a third byelection in a row after Jean-Talon and Terrebonne — how those votes land will say something about the tone of debate in the weeks ahead. Will citizens buy into Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime's line that his party is the one that represents change, standing up for right of centre voters who have never had a seat in the legislature even though his party got 12.91 per cent of the vote in the 2022 general election? Electing Duhaime would give him a huge boost, allowing him to rise in the legislature regularly to directly question the government, bagging excellent media attention at the same time. It's no wonder Duhaime has thrown everything he has into the race in Arthabaska. Plastered on election posters all over the riding, which includes the city of Victoriaville, Duhaime's campaign slogan, 'Du vrai,' is in itself a jab at the CAQ, a party he says has strayed from its roots over the last seven years in office. This will be Duhaime's second attempt at winning a seat, so the stakes for him personally are high. His Conservatives placed second in the riding in 2022. There has not been an MNA elected under a Conservative banner in Quebec's legislature since 1935. Given the riding's demographics, right-of-centre blue-collar nationalist Duhaime, on paper, has a shot at winning, said polling analyst Philippe J. Fournier, creator of the the Qc125 poll aggregator. The region leans right, voting Conservative federally and for 'anything but the Parti Québécois,' provincially. It was voting CAQ even before the party took power in 2018. The CAQ has held the seat since 2012, regularly winning 60 per cent of the vote — which now appears to have collapsed. But Duhaime remains a polarizing figure, making the byelection a race between him and the PQ. His opponents have been quick to recycle many of his controversial comments from his past days as a shock radio host in Quebec City. There have been reports from the barbecue and summer-festival circuits in the riding of an 'anybody but Duhaime' vote turning out Monday. In the lone campaign debate, held in July, Duhaime was the main target of his opponents, who questioned his party's more controversial ideas. Duhaime, for example, favours a greater place for private health care. He blames the CAQ government for high gas prices in Quebec because the province maintains a cap-and-trade carbon emissions system. which funds projects to reduce greenhouse gases. Fournier says voters face the dilemma of voting strategically. 'People are saying, 'To block the PQ, we have to vote Duhaime,' but people are very uncomfortable doing that,' Fournier said. 'There are not that many sovereignists there. This is a big step.' For a byelection, interest has been unusually high, with 26 per cent of voters — about 15,000 people — casting ballots in advance polls held the weekend of Aug. 2-3. There were scenes of citizens lining up to vote. Some voters might opt for a more middle-of-the-road vote, which could favour the PQ, Fournier said. The PQ has come up with a star candidate, former Radio-Canada Quebec City radio morning man Alex Boissonneault. Unlike Duhaime, Boissonneault is from the riding, which is midway between Montreal and Quebec City in central Quebec. He grew up in St-Ferdinand on the shores of picturesque William Lake. He started his campaign on the defensive, admitting he had a reckless youth. He was arrested in 2001 when he was a member of an extreme-left radical group that plotted to take down fences at the Summit of the Americas in Quebec City. The issue, however, does not seem to have hampered his campaign. The Qc125 vote projection site saying the PQ and Conservatives are statistically tied.. Winning a third byelection in a row would have a big impact on the PQ. It would be a sign the party under leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon can maintain the momentum it has experienced in the polls over the last two years. That's important for the PQ as Quebec gradually shifts toward a general election in 2026. It would be the first time since 1998 that the party won the riding and would further confirm the impression that the CAQ is in decline. The CAQ has fought back, recruiting well-known local candidate Keven Brasseur, the former president of the Chambre de commerce et industrie des Bois-Francs et de L'Érable. He, too, has played up his roots in the riding. A former president of the CAQ's youth wing, Brasseur has conceded that defending the CAQ's record on everything from the SAAQclic fiasco to Northvolt to health care has been challenging, but said after almost eight years in power, it's normal that some people are disappointed in the government. While some have said the byelection is a first test of the newly elected leader of the Quebec Liberals, Pablo Rodriguez, the party argues Arthabaska has not been fertile territory for the party for many years. The Liberals, nevertheless, came up with a local candidate, Chantale Marchand. She was executive director of the Fondation de L'Ermitage, an organization devoted to improving the quality of life of seniors. Québec solidaire candidate Pascale Fortin ran unsuccessfully in the 2022 general election. Perhaps anticipating a defeat, Legault will be in the riding Monday night as the votes are counted and intends to show voters he has heard their message and will move quickly after the byelection to jump-start his government. In June, when he revealed Brasseur would be the candidate, Legault took the unusual step of announcing he is planning to shuffle his cabinet in the fall. That exercise will happen around Labour Day, government sources said this week. Legault wants to give his new team of ministers a few weeks to get a handle on their files before the legislature resumes sitting Sept. 16. Not fond of shuffles to begin with, Legault will announce major changes in government that he says will respond to the concerns of voters. It can be argued the shuffle is overdue. Some of his ministers have been in the same job since the 2018 election. 'I think you would have to be on another planet to not realize there are Quebecers who are disappointed with certain issues handled by the CAQ,' Legault said in June. 'This is what has initiated my desire to make changes.' Legault has convened a meeting of his current cabinet for Wednesday, followed by a full meeting of his 86-member caucus Thursday. Legault has said he wants to hear the ideas of his caucus as he prepares the shuffle.

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