Opinion: Could the PQ'S byelection win spell the end for Legault?

Montreal Gazette

a day ago

It was Éric Duhaime's best shot at finally making his official entry in the National Assembly. In the end, it turned out to be — yet again — another miss.
Despite polls and projections suggesting he was neck and neck with Parti Québécois candidate Alex Boisonneault, the Quebec Conservative leader lost the byelection in the riding of Arthabaska by a bruising 10-point margin Monday evening.
It's quite a setback for Duhaime, who was hoping for a victory that could have given his party crucial momentum, just a year ahead of the next provincial general election. The media exposure his daily presence in Parliament would have brought him — along with the legitimacy of being an elected official — would have certainly helped getting his party's message across to a wider audience. The kind of turning point that can transform a somehow marginal political movement into a genuine alternative in the eyes of many voters.
For a man who has spent years touring the province as the self-proclaimed voice of Quebec's political outsiders, the loss is more than just disappointing — it's a squandered opportunity.
Still, Duhaime seems to remain optimistic about his party's future. In his concession speech, he made it clear that he intends to lead the provincial Conservatives into the next general election. But will members of his party still want of a captain who can't steer the ship into port, even in a riding like Arthabaska where the vast majority of voters support the Conservatives at the federal level?
Sometimes, very local byelections can have a national impact. Think of Geneviève Guilbault's victory when the CAQ caused an upset in Louis-Hébert, wrestling away this traditionally Liberal stronghold following Sam Hamad's departure, just a year before the 2018 election. All of a sudden, it cemented François Legault's image as a serious contender for premier in the minds of many Quebec voters, paving the way for his majority government 12 months later.
The PQ, which has consistently been leading in voting intentions across the province for the past several months, is now perfectly positioned to write its own version of that story. By winning in Arthabaska for the first time in nearly three decades — its third byelection win in a row, and its third victory out of the four by-elections held in the province since 2022 — it is confirming once more its current position as the leading political force in Quebec.
But in politics, a lot can happen in a single year and Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon's fortunes could change at any moment.
Meanwhile, the CAQ suffered a crushing defeat Monday night, finishing fourth. Its candidate, Keven Brasseur, took only seven per cent of the vote, two points behind the Quebec Liberal Party. For a party that has won every single election in this riding since its creation in 2012 — and always with massive majorities — it's a humiliating slap in the face.
The result underscores just how harshly Quebecers are judging François Legault's increasingly weary government. It could as well trigger a general panic within the CAQ ranks as serious questions about the Premier's leadership will — and should — be raised.
Legault still hopes he can turn things around with a major cabinet shuffle, which could take place as soon as within the next few days. But let's face it: it'll take far more than just a little game of musical chairs among ministers to stop the bleeding.
About a year ago on the federal stage, Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party lost two consecutive byelections in two of its most impenetrable strongholds. Six months later, Trudeau was no longer prime minister.
Could Monday's collapse signal the beginning of the end for François Legault? One thing is clear: make sure the popcorn is ready, because this fall promises to be pretty captivating in provincial politics.