Here's why Hurricane Erick is quickly strengthening into dangerous storm
Having doubled in strength in less than a day and still expected to grow further, Hurricane Erick on Wednesday chugged through the ideal environment to power up quickly as it approached Mexico 's southern Pacific Coast.
This type of rapid intensification has become more common in a warmer climate, especially in the Atlantic and near the United States, which is not where Erick is now, scientists said. Last year, there were there 34 incidents of rapid intensification — when a storm gains at least 35 mph in 24 hours — which is about twice as many as average and causes problems with forecasting, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Erick, an otherwise run-of-the-mill hurricane that's strong but not unusual, gained 50 mph in just 18 hours and was still powering up as it neared the coast.
Because of where it's heading — near Acapulco — and it's rapid intensification, Erick brings back bad memories of deadly Otis, which seemed to come from out of nowhere to smack Mexico with a top-of-the-scale Category 5 hurricane in 2023. But Erick is no Otis, especially because of their timing. Erick is an early-season storm and Otis hit in October.
Forming in October, Otis grew stronger by churning up deeper warmer water because it was later in the year. Erick is early in the year and the deep water it would churn up is cooler and doesn't fuel rapid intensification. Even so, the surface water is plenty hot enough, said MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel.
All the ingredients are otherwise perfect for Erick's power-up, said University at Albany atmospheric scientist Kristen Corbosiero. Dry air often stops rapid intensification, but Erick hasn't run into dry air and the atmosphere around it is extremely moist, she said. It's got a good stormy eye forming and has what would be the ideal shape of a strengthening storm, she said.
The water around Erick is warm enough for a storm to form and power up quickly, but it's not warmer than normal for this time of year, so that's not odd, Corbosiero said. However, it's warm enough that it is 'a pretty safe bet″ that it will continue to gain strength until it gets close to land, Emanuel said.
Studies have linked human-caused climate change in general to more bouts of rapid intensification, as well as wetter and slower storms, Corbosiero said. But it would take more study, usually after the storm hits, to find any potential link between global warming and Erick in particular, if there is one, she said.
Aside from its quick powering up, Erick 'doesn't seem to be particularly unusual,' Corbosiero said.
The only thing that's unusual so far is that this is the fifth eastern Pacific storm a month into the season there, which is a little more active than normal, said University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy. And it's likely that when Erick hits, it will be the strongest storm to make landfall in that part of Mexico this early in the season, he said.
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The Independent
an hour ago
- The Independent
Hurricane Erick strengthens to ‘extremely dangerous' Category 4 as it approaches Mexico
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The Independent
3 hours ago
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Storm moves south on approach Late Wednesday, Erick's projected path crept south, closer to the resort city of Puerto Escondido in Oaxaca state, and centered on a sparsely populated stretch of coastline between the Oaxacan resort and Acapulco to the northwest. President Claudia Sheinbaum said in a video message Wednesday night that all activities in the region were suspended and she urged people to stay in their homes or to move to shelters if they lived in low-lying areas. Waves were crashing onto the esplanade in Puerto Escondido by nightfall, swamping wooden fishing boats that had been pulled up there for safety. The beach disappeared under pounding waves and the rising tide had already reached the interiors of some waterfront restaurants. Last-minute purchases ended at nightfall as stores closed and the streets emptied. Earlier in the day, fishermen in Puerto Escondido pulled their boats out of the water ahead of the storm's arrival. Some surfers continued to ride waves at the Zicatela beach, even with red flags up to warn people to stay out of the water. The storm's course shift could be welcome relief for residents of storm-battered Acapulco. The city of nearly 1 million was devastated in October 2023 by Hurricane Otis, a Category 5 hurricane that rapidly intensified and caught many unprepared. At least 52 people died in Otis and the storm severely damaged almost all of the resort's hotels. Acapulco still scarred by Otis Acapulco residents said they were bracing for Erick's arrival with more preparation and trepidation because of the memory of the devastation wrought by Hurricane Otis two years earlier. Guerrero state Gov. Evelyn Salgado said via X that all movement in Acapulco and other beach communities was to be suspended at 8 p.m. Schools across the state were to remain closed for a second day Thursday. Carlos Ozuna Romero, 51, lost his restaurant at the edge of an Acapulco beach when Otis slammed the resort with devastating winds. On Wednesday, he directed workers storing tables and chairs. 'Authorities' warnings fill us with fear and obviously make us remember everything we've already been through,' Ozuna Romero said in reference to Otis. Elsewhere, workers nailed sheets of plywood over shop windows and stacked sandbags outside doorways. Cars lined up to fill their tanks and shoppers made last-minute purchases before rushing home. Verónica Gómez struggled through the streets of Acapulco with a large jug of water. 'We're all afraid because we think the same thing could happen,' said the 40-year-old employee of a shipping company. But she said she and others learned a lot from Otis. 'Now it's not going to catch us by surprise," she said, holding out a bag of canned food as evidence. In Acapulco on Wednesday, there was a strong presence of National Guard and police in the streets, but most visible were trucks from the national power company. Crews worked to clear drainage canals and brush. Rain could be Erick's legacy Forecasters said Erick was expected to lash Mexico's Pacific coast with heavy rain, strong winds and a fierce storm surge. Rains of up to 16 inches (40 centimeters) could fall across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, with lesser totals in Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco states, the center's advisory said. The rainfall threatened flooding and mudslides, especially in areas with steep terrain. A hurricane warning was in effect from Acapulco to Puerto Ángel. A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected in the area, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, according to the hurricane center advisory. Laura Velázquez, Mexico's national civil defense coordinator, said Erick was forecast to bring 'torrential' rains to Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas in southern Mexico. The mountainous region along the coast is especially prone to mudslides with numerous rivers at risk of flooding. Guerrero Gov. Evelyn Salgado said all schools would remain closed and the state had alerted all of the fishing and tourism operators to make their boats storm-ready. Acapulco's port closed Tuesday evening. Salgado said 582 shelters were set to receive people who might evacuate their homes. Sheinbaum warned in her daily briefing that those in the hurricane's path should heed government instructions and wait out the storm in their homes or designated shelters. Erick quickly doubled in strength Having doubled in strength in less than a day, Erick was churning through an ideal environment for quick intensification. Last year, there were 34 incidents of rapid intensification — when a storm gains at least 35 mph in 24 hours — which is about twice as many as average and causes problems with forecasting, according to the hurricane center. __ Sánchez reported from Acapulco, Mexico.
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