How Will PulteGroup Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM), an American home construction firm, is scheduled to announce its fiscal second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, July 22, 2025. Analysts anticipate that the company will deliver earnings of $3.01 per share along with $4.42 billion in revenue. This forecast reflects a 16% drop in adjusted earnings and a 4% decline in revenue compared to last year's figures of $3.58 per share and $4.60 billion, respectively. Historically, the stock has increased following earnings reports 70% of the time, showcasing a median one-day gain of 4.4% and a peak increase of 9%.
PulteGroup's unit backlog fell by 16% year-over-year in Q1, with the backlog's value decreasing by 12%, indicating potential challenges for future revenue. Navigating this downturn in the face of heightened competition and economic pressures will be essential for maintaining growth in the upcoming quarters. The company currently boasts a market capitalization of $23 billion. Over the past twelve months, revenue was $18 billion, and it achieved operational profitability with $3.8 billion in operating profits and net income of $2.9 billion. While much will hinge on how results compare with consensus and predictions, grasping historical trends could favor you if you are a trader focused on events.
For event-driven traders, historical data might provide a competitive edge, whether by positioning in advance of earnings or responding to post-release movements. If you are looking for opportunities with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having consistently outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks.
PulteGroup's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights into one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional data on the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are consolidated along with the statistics in the table below.
PHM 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk strategy (though less effective if the correlation is weak) involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings announcements, identifying a pair with the highest correlation, and executing the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the strongest correlation, a trader can take a "long" position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and what is now 3-year historical patterns. Note that the correlation 1D_5D indicates the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
PHM Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
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