Trump Effect holds sway as Canadians vote

Politico

26-04-2025

Three quarters of Canadians dislike President Donald Trump — and Conservatives appear likely to pay a painful price for it in the country's Monday election, according to a POLITICO/Focaldata poll of Canadian voters.
About two in five voters (39 percent) told Focaldata, a U.K. pollster, that Trump was a top concern in the election, second only to cost of living (60 percent).
Since Trump's return to the White House — and Justin Trudeau's exit as Canada's prime minister — the Conservative Party led by populist Pierre Poilievre has watched a 25-point polling lead disintegrate in front of its eyes. Conservatives now trail in most surveys, including the POLITICO/Focaldata poll.
Canada's election has transformed into a test of Trump's political influence beyond the United States. In a backlash against his threats and trade war, about half of Canadians now consider the U.S. as a hostile power, a dramatic turn among moderate and Liberal-leading Canadians.
In a Time magazine interview published Friday,
Trump again reiterated his desire to annex Canada
: 'The only way this thing really works is for Canada to become a state.'
Focaldata, which surveyed 2,826 respondents online from April 18 to 23, measured Trump's net favorability at minus 61 among Canadians, 'a deeply negative standing' that the pollster suggests could sway the outcome against the Conservatives.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney has campaigned on the proposition that his experience at the helm of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England makes him best qualified to defend Canada. The poll suggests voters agree that he, not Poilievre, is better suited to managing the nation's relationship with Trump and the United States.
'President Trump and I … we share some experiences,' the newbie politician said after being sworn in as prime minister last month. 'I have been in the private sector. I have worked in the real estate sector. I have done large transactions. I have worked with him during his first presidency at the G20, at the G7.'
With 2 days until Election Day, it remains to be seen whether Carney has closed the deal.
There are signs, though, that polls might be underestimating Conservatives' support. When Focaldata asked voters who they believed their local communities would vote for, Conservatives fared slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata's chief research office, says drawing on the 'wisdom of the crowds' proved accurate in Brexit and during both Trump elections.
'The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,' Kanagasooriam told POLITICO in an email. He added that it's a trick to know how much weight to give the finding since it's the only time the firm has deployed the question in Canada.
'While most traditional survey sampling suggests a narrow majority for Carney (including our own), there is an alternative method that paints a very, very different picture,' he said.
Focaldata gives the Liberals the edge in this final weekend of a 37-day campaign.
The firm found 40.5 percent support nationwide for Carney's Liberals. Poilievre's Conservatives trail at 37.5 percent.
Liberals hold a 9-point lead in all-important Ontario — 46 percent to 37. Carney's party also leads in Quebec (38 percent), ahead of the Bloc Québécois (28 percent) and Conservatives (22 percent). Conservatives lead in every province west of Ontario, including by 8 points — 42 percent to 34 — in British Columbia.
Jagmeet Singh's progressive New Democratic Party trails nationally at 10.7 percent. And only 58 percent of its support is rock solid, compared to 71 percent of Conservative voters and 68 percent of Liberals who say their preferences are final.
Helping Carney is that he appears to have persuaded a large chunk of voters that, despite Poilievre's persistent efforts, he is not Justin Trudeau.
A plurality of voters — 46 percent — say the incumbent prime minister 'mostly represents something different from Justin Trudeau's leadership' — and will vote for him, or not, based on his own record. That's a boon for Carney, since Trudeau is underwater with voters, the poll found; nearly three out of five hold unfavorable views of the former prime minister.
Focaldata's survey — with the Liberals polling slightly ahead of Conservatives — is in line with most national polling at this point in the campaign.
A closer look at favorability ratings helps reveal why, with Carney enjoying a net positive 10-point favorability rating but Poilievre net unfavorable by 7 points.
Some of that comes from Carney's popularity among both parties' voters. Liberals like Carney slightly more (86 percent) than Conservatives like Poilievre (84 percent). At the same time, Conservatives dislike Carney less (65 percent) than Liberals dislike Poilievre (74 percent). Combined with other voters' views, that creates the favorability gap in Carney's favor.
Trump, meanwhile, is unpopular with everyone. The poll suggests 3 out of 5 Conservatives have an unfavorable view of the president.
After taking over the Conservative Party in 2022, Poilievre traveled the country to share the message that 'Canada is broken.' Polls showed Canadians widely agreed — until Trump's Oval Office broadsides inspired a surge of patriotism.
Focaldata's survey indicates the Conservative still narrowly leading among the cost-of-living set, but Carney dominates the cross-border file.
Liberals and Conservatives agree that inflation and cost of living are key concerns, but a 52 percent majority of Liberals also said that Trump and Canada's relationship with the U.S. is a top issue, almost double the 27 percent of Conservatives who say the same. (They ranked Trump sixth on their list of top worries.)
Liberals ranked healthcare at their number 3 concern, while Conservatives put it at 4 — just after housing affordability.
The POLITICO/Focaldata poll found that Conservatives are more worried than Liberals about immigration and refugee policy as well as crime and public safety — concerns that are reflected in Poilievre's campaign.
Voters of course back their own parties and candidates when it comes to trusting them to manage most issues, but there are key differences in those numbers that reveal each leader's strengths and weaknesses.
When it comes to managing Trump and the United States, for example, Liberals almost universally say Carney is the better choice. But one in eight Conservatives actually agree that they think Carney and the Liberal Party would do a better job, the survey shows, with an additional one in six Conservatives saying they 'don't know' when asked to pick.
On the flip side, eight percent of Liberals think Poilievre would grow jobs and the economy better than Carney would.
Some Liberals also believe Poilievre would manage immigration and crime better than Carney would. One in eight Liberals said Poilievre is best at managing immigration and refugee policy, while one in five Liberals say the Conservative leader is better at tackling crime.
Nearly half of voters, 45 percent, said Trump's actions have influenced their vote choice 'moderately' or 'a great deal,' with a strong partisan gap.
Liberal voters were far likelier than Conservatives to consider Trump as they picked their party: 53 percent of Liberal voters said Trump's actions have significantly influenced their vote, while only one in four Conservative voters said the same.
The divide extends more broadly to views of the United States. Nearly two-thirds of Liberals (64 percent) say the U.S. is either 'enemy or hostile' or 'generally unfriendly, but not an enemy'. A mere 19 percent see the US as an ally or generally friendly.
Meanwhile, 40 percent of Conservatives say the U.S. is an ally or generally friendly, with 34 percent saying the opposite.
About half of Canadians, 49 percent, now view the U.S. as 'unfriendly' or 'an enemy' — an overall view that is now less favorable even than China, where a years-long diplomatic freeze has chilled relations.
Mickey Djuric contributed to this report.