
Dow Hits Record High, Mixed Data Pressures Broader Market
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended modestly higher on Aug 15 after touching a fresh intraday record, lifted by a sharp rally in UnitedHealth Group's shares, even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell on mixed economic signals that clouded the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next policy move.
Reuters reported that UnitedHealth jumped nearly 12%, its biggest one-day gain since March 2020, after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new stake in the health insurer, while Scion Asset Management also boosted its holdings. The surge helped the healthcare sector log its best weekly performance since October 2022.
The Dow gained 34.86 points, or 0.08%, to close at 44,946.12. The S&P 500 slipped 0.29% to 6,449.80 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.40% to 21,622.98. For the week, the Dow rose 1.74%, the S&P 500 added 0.94% and the Nasdaq advanced 0.81%. The small-cap Russell 2000 outperformed with a 3.13% weekly gain.
Markets remain focused on the Fed, with traders betting on a 25-basis-point rate cut in September following signs of labour market weakness and muted tariff-driven inflation. However, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee urged caution, noting uneven economic data. July retail sales grew in line with forecasts, but factory output and consumer sentiment weakened under tariff pressures.
Geopolitical developments also loomed large. Investors eyed a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, seen as pivotal for Ukraine peace prospects and the outlook for crude oil prices. Trump also signalled new tariffs on steel and semiconductors could be unveiled next week.
Trading volumes were lighter than average, with 16.3 billion shares changing hands across US exchanges versus a 20-session average of 18.2 billion.
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New Straits Times
4 hours ago
- New Straits Times
Manufacturers turn to AI to weather tariff storm
MANUFACTURERS like American lawnmower maker The Toro Company are not panicking at the prospect of United States President Donald Trump's global trade tariffs. Despite five years of dramatic supply disruptions, from the Covid pandemic to today's trade wars, Toro is resisting any temptation to stack its warehouses to the rafters. "We are at probably pre-pandemic inventory levels," said its chief supply-chain manager, Kevin Carpenter, looking relaxed in front of a whiteboard at his office in Minneapolis. "I think everybody will be at a 2019 level." Among US manufacturers, inventories have roller-coasted this year as they rushed to beat Trump's deadlines for tariff hikes, only to see them repeatedly delayed. But how can firms run lean inventories even as tariffs fluctuate, export bans come out of the blue, and conflict rages? One of the answers, they say, is artificial intelligence. Carpenter says he uses AI to digest the daily stream of news that could impact Toro's business, from Trump's social media posts to steel prices, into a custom-made podcast that he listens to each morning. His team also uses generative AI to sieve an ocean of data and to suggest when and how many components to buy from whom. It is a boom industry. Spending on software that includes generative AI for supply chains, capable of learning and even performing tasks on its own, could hit US$55 billion by 2029, up from US$2.7 billion now, according to US research firm Gartner, driven in part by global uncertainties. "The tool just puts up in front of you: 'I think you can take 100 tonnes of this product from this plant to transfer it to that plant.' "And you just hit accept if that makes sense (to you)," McKinsey supply chain consultant Matt Jochim said. The biggest providers of overall supply chain software by revenue are Germany's SAP, US firms Oracle, Coupa and Microsoft and Blue Yonder, a unit of Panasonic, according to Gartner. Generative AI is in its infancy, with most firms still piloting it spending modest amounts, industry experts say. Those investments can climb to tens of millions of dollars when deployed at scale, including the use of tools known as AI agents, which make their own decisions and often need costly upgrades to data management and other IT systems, they said. In commenting for this article, SAP, Oracle, Coupa, Microsoft and Blue Yonder described strong growth for generative AI solutions for supply chains without giving numbers. At US supply chain consultancy GEP, which sells AI tools like this, Trump's tariffs are helping to drive demand. "The tariff volatility has been big," said GEP consultant Mukund Acharya, an expert in retail industry supply chains. SAP said the uncertainty was driving technology take-up. "That's how it was during the financial crisis, Brexit and Covid. And it's what we're seeing now," Richard Howells, SAP vice president and supply chain specialist, said. An AI agent can sift real-time news feeds on changing tariff scenarios, assess contract renewal dates and other data points and come up with a plan of action. But supply chain experts warn of AI hype, saying a lot of money will be wasted on a vain hope that AI can work miracles. "AI is really a powerful enabler for supply chain resilience, but it's not a silver bullet," says Minna Aila, communications chief at Finnish crane-maker Konecranes and member of a business board that advises the OECD on issues including supply chain resilience. Aila said: "I'm still looking forward to the day when AI can predict terrorist attacks at sea, for instance." Konecranes' logistic partners are deploying AI on more mundane data, like weather forecasts. The company makes port cranes that are up to 106m high when assembled. When shipping them, AI marries weather forecasts with data like bridge heights to optimise the route. Toro supply chain chief Carpenter says that without AI, supply chain managers might need to run bigger teams as well. Is he worried that AI is coming for his job one day?


Malay Mail
6 hours ago
- Malay Mail
Assassins in Alaska? From fake flags to fictional snipers, disinformation frenzy clouds Trump-Putin summit
WASHINGTON, Aug 16 — From false claims of a Ukrainian assassin shot dead in Alaska to baseless reports of Russia declaring the sale of the territory to the United States illegal, misinformation has swirled around the summit between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. The online falsehoods spreading across tech platforms were muddying the waters around yesterday's closely watched Alaska summit, a test of the US president's pledge to end the three-year bloody war in Ukraine. 'Malign actors (have) flooded the internet and social media with falsehoods and distortions' that were 'circulating from across the political spectrum and across the globe,' disinformation watchdog NewsGuard said in a report. Among them was the unfounded claim that American soldiers had recently shot and killed a Ukrainian assassin named Stefan Orestovych, a supposed trained sniper for Ukraine's special forces, in the Alaskan city of Wasilla. There was no evidence that an assassin by that name even exists. The falsehood, which circulated on X, Instagram, a QAnon conspiracy theory platform as well as a Sri Lankan news website, originated on Real Raw News, according to NewsGuard. A self-proclaimed 'humour, parody, and satire' site, Real Raw News is often mistaken as a legitimate news outlet and has repeatedly been called out by researchers for publishing fabricated claims about the Russia-Ukraine war as well as American officials and politicians. Trump critics online have also falsely claimed that Putin signed a decree in January last year declaring Russia's sale of Alaska to the United States 'illegal,' while mocking the US president for hosting a leader who purportedly rejected American sovereignty over the territory. Putin was 'preparing the future annexation of Alaska and Trump fell for it,' one user wrote on X, an unfounded claim that has also spread across Bluesky and TikTok. The United States bought Alaska in 1867 from Russia, and there was no evidence that Putin had signed such a decree. Meanwhile, pro-Kremlin nationalist accounts on social media were circulating an image of a fake 'People's Republic of Alaska' flag, using the summit to assert that the territory rightfully belonged to Russia. The images were being spread online by Russian nationalist media outlets as well as the Pravda network, a well-resourced Moscow-based operation known to circulate pro-Russian narratives globally. 'The fake flag is the latest instalment in a decades-old narrative pushed by ultra-nationalists in Russia, framing the Nineteenth Century sale of Alaska as a national betrayal,' NewsGuard report said. The swirling misinformation underscores how easily online falsehoods can originate and spread around a high-profile event, especially across tech platforms that have largely scaled back content moderation. Trump extended the invitation for the summit at the Russian leader's suggestion. The meeting will be closely followed by European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was not included and has publicly refused pressure from Trump to surrender territory seized by Russia. — AFP


BusinessToday
7 hours ago
- BusinessToday
Is The Market Heading For A Melt-Up?
After a brief consolidation, global equities scaled a new all-time high. A confluence of factors is fuelling the next leg higher for risk assets. These include expectations of Fed rate cuts resuming from September, improving corporate earnings fuelled by AI investments and easing global trade tensions. A successful Trump-Putin meeting to end the Ukraine war and a dovish speech from Fed Chair Powell at the upcoming Jackson Hole annual retreat have the potential to drive equities higher, while disappointments here could lead to another consolidation. Standard Chartered remains constructive on risk assets over 6-12 months, the house prefers relatively inexpensive non-US markets, especially Asia ex-Japan equities, given stretched US equity valuations. SC also hedged against any tariff- or oil price-driven inflation risks through US inflation-protected bonds. Tariff impact starts to show in US inflation: The latest trigger for the risk asset rally was the US consumer inflation report for July which eased concerns about a rise in goods inflation due to tariffs. Core consumer inflation accelerated to 0.3% m/m due to some volatile services sector components. Core goods inflation, at 0.2% m/m, was unchanged from June. However, the subsequent producer inflation report showed companies are starting to pay higher prices for tariff-affected goods, which are likely to be passed on to consumers. SC expects the impact on consumer prices to be temporary as a slowing job market curbs wage growth, the biggest driver of structural inflation. Fed to start rate cuts in September: Against the backdrop of mixed US inflation reports, the focus is likely to turn to the decidedly weak US job market. There is one more round of inflation and jobs data due before the Fed meets on 16-17 September. Unless there is a spike in consumer inflation in August, the latest combination of weak jobs data and modestly high consumer inflation argues for the Fed to resume rate cuts in September. Besides the 25bps September rate cut, money markets are pricing one more 25bps rate cut by year end. Fed Chair Powell has a chance to confirm or push back against those expectations at his Jackson Hole speech on 22 August. Minutes from the Fed's last meeting, when two policymakers voted for rate cuts, would also be scrutinised closely. Solid AI-driven earnings: Besides Fed rate cut expectations, equities have been fuelled by yet another strong US earnings season, powered by accelerating AI investments. Guidance from the AI-related technology and communication services sectors remains strong, with the two sectors expected to deliver 19% and 13% earnings growth over the next 12 months. Watch US valuations: Strong earnings notwithstanding, the MSCI US equity index is trading at a 22x 12-month forward P/E multiple, close to its all-time high. A 12% earnings growth estimate for the next 12 months leaves little room for upward surprises, in our opinion. Investor positioning and sentiment indicators suggest there is still room for upside before they turn contrarian. In contrast, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan and China equity indices are trading at relatively attractive 13.8x and 12.3x P/E multiples, respectively. Given this, it would be prudent to reduce any US overexposure and rotate to Asia ex-Japan. Staying bullish on China equities, especially the tech sector: Besides attractive valuations, Asia ex-Japan equities are benefitting from easing trade tensions after major US allies, except for India, reached preliminary tariff agreements with Washington. Easing fiscal policies in China and Europe should help offset some of the negative impact of tariffs. The extension of the US-China trade truce for three months and the relaxation of US curbs on semiconductor exports to China are providing tailwinds to China stocks, especially in the technology sector. The house remains positive on the Hang Seng Technology index. Hedging inflation risks: The upcoming meeting between President Trump and President Putin to end the Ukraine conflict has the potential to ease a major headwind for European assets. An agreement would likely bring down oil prices, significantly easing inflation concerns. However, a deal is not guaranteed. We would hedge against upside risk to oil prices (if talks fail) through US inflation-protected government bonds.