Nvidia Breaks Through US-China Wall -- AI Chip Exports Back in Play
Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with NVDA.
Behind the scenes, this reversal looks like part of a broader geopolitical mosaic. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admitted export controls had been a negotiating chip during recent trade talks in Geneva and London, even though officials had previously denied any quid pro quo. The policy shift follows China's decision to ease restrictions on rare-earth exports, a move US negotiators have been angling for over months. CEO Jensen Huang currently in Beijing has long argued that restricting Nvidia chips only fuels rivals like Huawei and weakens US leverage. Nvidia's own estimates suggest up to $15 billion in data center revenue was at risk, including $45 billion from H20 orders originally expected this year.
The stakes couldn't be higher. Nvidia recently hit a $4 trillion market cap, becoming the poster child of the post-ChatGPT AI boom. Now, the H20's return could reopen a critical channel to Chinese hyperscalers like Alibaba and DeepSeek, who still prefer Nvidia's hardware for their next-gen models. Even with Washington maintaining that no intent exists to boost China's AI capabilities, the landscape just shifted. And with Huang warning that Nvidia's market share in China has already dropped from 95% to 50%, this development could be the inflection point that brings a chunk of it back.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
9 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Opinion: Focus on tariffs is ignoring Canada's fastest-growing trade opportunity
With the latest 35 per cent tariff threat from United States President Donald Trump, the national trade discussion and news headlines are, understandably, fixated once again on tariffs on goods and what to do about them. As a relatively small, open economy, Canada relies heavily on trade — especially trade with our neighbour and the world's largest market — to sustain living standards. But focusing only on physical goods risks missing a major opportunity. Canada's fastest-growing export category is not oil or autos. It is digitally delivered services. These services are delivered remotely or sold via digital platforms. Digital services do not move across physical borders. They move through code, platforms and cross-border data flows. Over the past 20 years, they have grown nearly four times faster than Canada's other exports, yet they remain largely absent from the national trade conversation. A new discussion paper from the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada points out that digital service exports now account for almost two-thirds of Canada's commercial services exports. Growth is strongest in sectors such as software, engineering, audiovisual services and IT consulting. Digital services are also the fastest-growing part of global trade. Since 2005, they have grown more than three times faster than goods trade globally. Their share of total world services exports has climbed to more than 50 per cent from 30 per cent. The fastest-growing importers of digital services include Indonesia, Vietnam, Chile, Peru, the Philippines and India, where demand for digital solutions is growing rapidly across sectors such as information technology, fintech and e-commerce. Many fast-growth markets now import more digital services than traditional goods. Cloud-based collaboration, seamless and instant language translation, and digital platforms are accelerating this shift. New artificial intelligence (AI) developments further expand the menu of what can be traded globally. Canada has the foundations in place to seize this opportunity. This country has world-class AI researchers, firms that are digitally enabled and diaspora connections to emerging digital markets. Canadians are also among the top global users of generative AI tools. The federal government now has a dedicated minister for AI and digital innovation. Canadian trade policymakers have been leaders in including digital provisions in trade agreements. The Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) already contain modern digital trade rules, and Canada has just announced a new digital trade agreement to be negotiated alongside the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). But despite all these tools, Canada is punching far below its weight. Our digital services exports have rapidly grown, but our global market share remains below three per cent. That is well behind the United Kingdom, France and the Netherlands. Ottawa needs to reframe Canada's trade discussion for the digital and AI era. Digital trade is growing quickly, faces different restrictions than physical trade and relies less on geography, and is aligned with Canada's relative strengths. Canada should adopt a clear national goal: double its share of global digital services exports by 2030 and ensure that at least half go to markets beyond North America. This target would focus national attention and provide a benchmark for progress in a fast-growing part of the global economy. It would also help identify and address the barriers that digital exporters face. Canada already offers support through trade commissioners and export financing, but these efforts are rarely co-ordinated around a shared objective. Moreover, those responsible for AI and digital innovation do not co-ordinate with those responsible for trade. A clear target would connect these discussions. Canadian firms in traditional sectors such as manufacturing, agri-food and mining could also benefit from embedding more digital services into their exports. But the data on digital services inputs shows that most are not adopting these inputs in significant ways. Strengthening digital services trade would support these sectors by making their offerings more competitive and more resilient amid the trade crisis. Policymakers should treat digital trade as core to the country's economic strategy. Canada has the tools it needs to capitalize on the new trade possibilities that have already emerged. Jack Mintz: Governments may overproduce, but not the private sector Opinion: Our long-running trade soap opera with the Americans An increased focus on digital trade also helps derisk Canada's overall trade portfolio. It expands both the types of trade and markets for that trade, making Canada's economy more resilient in the face of tariff whiplash under Trump 2.0. Kati Suominen is the founder and chief executive of Nextrade Group, and Danielle Goldfarb is a distinguished fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
9 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Polymarket to expand U.S. access with acquisition of QCEX for $112 million
-- Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, has acquired the holding company of a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse for $112 million. The acquisition of QCX, LLC and QC Clearing LLC (collectively "QCEX") represents a major step toward expanding Polymarket's platform access in the United States, allowing more users to trade prediction market contracts with regulatory clarity. "Polymarket is the largest prediction market globally and has become synonymous with understanding the probability of current events," said Shayne Coplan, Founder and CEO of Polymarket. "Demand is greater than ever — not just in user growth and trading volume, but in how mainstream audiences are turning to Polymarket to separate signal from noise, bias, and speculation. Now, with the acquisition of QCEX, we are laying the foundation to bring Polymarket home — re-entering the US as a fully regulated and compliant platform that will allow Americans to trade their opinions." Sergei Dobrovolskii, Founder of QCEX, stated, "When we began the process to obtain our DCM & DCO licenses over 4 years ago, the prediction market was in its infancy. But we have long believed in its potential to change the way people access and understand information and express their views on that information. Shayne has built a cultural phenomenon in Polymarket. I am excited to bring our companies together and leverage our licenses, technology, and expertise in the retail trading sector to help Polymarket reach its full potential." In the first half of 2025, users have made approximately $6 billion in predictions on the Polymarket platform. The company recently announced an official partnership with 𝕏, strengthening its position at the intersection of politics, markets, and culture. The acquisition creates a path for U.S. users to access Polymarket within a fully regulated, U.S.-compliant framework in the near future. Related articles Polymarket to expand U.S. access with acquisition of QCEX for $112 million Clients buying into summer rally, bracing for later pullback, says BofA's Hartnett Surge of 50% since our AI selection, this chip giant still has great potential Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
9 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Michael Saylor's Strategy owns 3% of Bitcoin in circulation after latest purchase
(Bloomberg) — Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR) now owns more than 3% of all the Bitcoin (BTC-USD) ever minted following the crypto treasury company's latest purchase of the original cryptocurrency. The former MicroStrategy Inc. acquired 6,220 Bitcoin for $739.8 million during the seven days ended July 20, according to a filing Monday with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This raised the Tysons Corner, Virginia-based firm's holdings to 607,770 Bitcoin — which is about 3.05% of the roughly 19.9 million token issued. The stack is worth about $72 billion. Strategy has been using a combination of common and preferred shares, as well as debt, to fund Bitcoin purchases since it began accumulating the cryptocurrency in late 2020 as a hedge against inflation. Dozens of companies have begun to emulate the practice. Strategy is the world's leading corporate owner of Bitcoin. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) holds about $86 billion in assets. While some other tokens' unlimited supply has concerned investors, Bitcoin's store of value proposition has been buoyed by the 21 million limit on the number of tokens to be mined. Instructions in the network's original code have further helped to promote the scarcity value of the token — like quadrennial halving events that automatically slash the amount of token rewards miners earn. The last Bitcoin is expected to be issued in the year 2140. Shares of Strategy has surged more than 3,500% since Saylor - a founder and executive chairman of the company - began buying Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has risen about 1,100% during the same period, while S&P 500 has increased around 120%. ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
