Does UTJ's departure mean that Israel is heading to an election?
United Torah Judaism's seven MKs officially left the coalition on Monday, resulting in the size of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition dropping from 68 to 61 seats.
However, this does not take into account that Noam MK Avi Maoz left the coalition in March and has since operated independently. For all intents and purposes, therefore, Netanyahu has officially lost his majority in the Knesset for the first time since taking office in late 2022.
If Shas's Torah Council orders the party's 11 MKs to leave the coalition as well, it will drop below 50, and below the current 52-member opposition.
Does this mean Israel is heading to an election? The short answer is probably yes, but not immediately.
Without a majority, the prime minister will not be able to pass any measure that requires legislation or approval in the Knesset. The reality of the past two months, however, has been that despite an ongoing haredi boycott of plenum voting, the opposition has supported or abstained from crucial votes, mostly having to do with security, and therefore it is unlikely that an urgent parliamentary matter will force Netanyahu to call an election.
The only crucial parliamentary vote that can topple the coalition is the annual state budget, but this must only pass by the end of March in a given budget year. This means that even if the coalition does not have the necessary votes to pass the 2026 budget, it could still stay afloat until March 31.
As long as the prime minister does not announce an election, the other main tool to topple the coalition is to pass a law dispersing the Knesset. Two MKs from UTJ supported a preliminary vote on such a law on June 12, a day before Israel's attack against Iran, but the government still won the vote. Still, neither haredi party has officially announced it would support such a bill.
Even if one or both of the haredi parties were to support such a bill, the most that could happen is that it would pass a preliminary vote prior to the Knesset's three-month recess, which begins on July 27. The legislation will stall during the recess; therefore, realistically, it will only pass in late October or November. In that scenario, an election will be set for late January or February.
Much can happen until then, such as Netanyahu reaching a new compromise with the haredi parties.
The prime minister also has an incentive to draw out the government's tenure, even with a severely depleted coalition. Despite the recent successes in Iran, the prime minister's poll numbers still predict a victory for his main contender, Naftali Bennett.
Netanyahu can attempt to take advantage of the Knesset recess to reach a hostage deal and perhaps even a peace agreement with another Arab or Muslim country.
These would be the type of successes he could flaunt alongside the success against Iran in his upcoming election campaign, rather than an election coming in the wake of his failed attempt to pass a highly unpopular law to exempt over half of eligible haredi men from IDF service, and his failure so far to bring back the remaining hostages.
Domino effect leading to early election?
Having said this, a decision by Shas to depart the government would be a very serious blow to Netanyahu's ability to govern. This could create a domino effect that could lead the prime minister himself to call an early election.
The date to focus on is July 27. If the prime minister has not announced an election by then, he will likely wait out the summer and even try to keep his coalition afloat until the end of March.
If, however, Shas quits the government, and especially if the haredi parties announce their wish to head to an election, Israel could very well be on its way to an election, which would likely be held just after the fall holidays.
The last factor to take into account is Netanyahu's far Right partners, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, both of whom have threatened to quit the government over a possible hostage deal due to what they have argued are unacceptable concessions to Hamas.
Ben-Gvir's departure in January and return to the government in March showed that departing the government was not irreversible. However, with the haredim out, the departure of either party will likely tip the scale irreversibly.
Ironically, relieved from the pressure of his far Right partners, Netanyahu could, precisely during his election campaign, cut the deal he laid out already in May 2024, a permanent ceasefire with Hamas in exchange for the release of all hostages.
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