Judo Bank's fundie presentation spooks the market, ends in confession
What caused Judo Bank to abruptly confess to lower-than-expected growth in the middle of the day on Thursday? Perhaps it was the business bank's chief financial officer Andrew Leslie, who may have given too much away at a UBS small-caps presentation to a handful of investors two days earlier.
Leslie's presentation, made at Swiss investment bank's offices in Melbourne on Tuesday, had hinted at a softening in Judo's earnings conditions, foreshadowing – at least to some in the room – an earnings downgrade.
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Perth Now
a day ago
- Perth Now
Stocks slide, oil and gold jump after Israel hits Iran
Stocks have dived in early Asian trade, led by a sell-off in US futures, while oil prices jumped after Israel conducted a military strike on Iran, sending investors scurrying to safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc. The Israeli attack on Friday raises the risk of a fresh escalation in tensions in the Middle East, a major oil producing region, and comes at a time of heightened pressure on the global economy and financial markets from US President Donald Trump's shakeup of trade policies. Market reaction was swift, with US S&P E-mini futures slumping 1.5 per cent and Nasdaq futures skidding 1.7 per cent. Japan's Nikkei lost 1.4 per cent and South Korea's KOSPI slipped 1.2 per cent. Brent crude jumped more than six per cent to $US73.56 a barrel. Gold climbed one per cent to about $US3,419 an ounce. Israel said it was declaring a state of emergency in anticipation of a missile and drone strike by Tehran, after what it called a "pre-emptive strike" over Iran's nuclear program. Explosions were heard northeast of Iran's capital Tehran early on Friday, the state-run Nour News said. Two US officials who spoke on condition of anonymity said Israel had begun carrying out strikes on Iran and there was no US assistance or involvement in the operation. CNN reported that Trump was convening a cabinet meeting. "Traders are scurrying for safety as reports of a strike on Iran cross the wires," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto. "But details on the scale and magnitude of the attack remain scarce and moves have been relatively limited thus far." Tensions had been building as Trump's efforts to reach a nuclear deal with Iran appear to be deadlocked. US and Iranian officials were scheduled to hold a sixth round of talks on Tehran's escalating uranium enrichment programme in Oman on Sunday, according to officials from both countries and their Omani mediators. The Swiss franc gained about 0.4 per cent to 0.8072 per US dollar, and fellow safe haven the yen appreciated 0.3 per cent to 143.06 per dollar. The euro eased 0.3 per cent to $US1.1553, giving back a little of its 0.9 per cent overnight jump.
The Advertiser
3 days ago
- The Advertiser
Stocks stall as investors watch US-China trade talks
Global stocks and the dollar have held steady as trade talks between the United States and China continued into a second day, giving investors some reason to believe tensions between the world's two largest economies may be easing. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said discussions between the two sides were going well, while President Donald Trump on Monday put a positive spin on the talks after Monday's session. Lutnick, together with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met their Chinese counterparts in London. Any progress in the negotiations is likely to provide relief to markets given that Trump's often-shifting tariff announcements and swings in Sino-US ties have undermined the two economies, disrupted supply chains and threaten to hobble global growth. World stocks, as reflected by the MSCI All-Country World index, traded near record highs on Tuesday while the dollar steadied against a range of currencies. "While market participants are clearly taking a glass half-full view of the outlook, both on trade policy and more broadly, we don't think that should be interpreted as a view that tariffs will be fully unwound," said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics. Goltermann anticipates US duties on Chinese goods to settle at around 40 per cent, while most analysts have said that the universal 10 per cent levy on imports into the United States is here to stay. In Europe the STOXX 600 edged lower, led by UBS whose shares dropped seven per cent as investors worried about the impact of new government proposals to force the Swiss bank to hold $US26 billion in extra capital. US stock futures were trading around 0.1 per cent higher. Meanwhile in Tokyo, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said policymakers were looking at measures to promote domestic ownership of Japanese government bonds, a day after Reuters reported that Japan is considering buying back some super-long government bonds issued in the past at low interest rates. The yield on the 10-year JGB was flat at 1.47 per cent, while 30-year yields were up one basis point at 2.92 per cent, having retreated from late May's record high of 3.18 per cent. The yen strengthened throughout the day, leaving the dollar roughly unchanged on the day around 144.5 yen, while the euro also turned positive, up 0.1 per cent at $US1.1428. The pound dropped 0.3 per cent to $US1.35 after weak UK employment data. Trump's erratic trade policies and worries over Washington's growing debt pile have dented investor confidence in US assets, in turn undermining the dollar, which has already fallen more than eight per cent this year. "It's not that the Americans are blowing up their fiscal situation because the deficit is going to remain more or less stable. But the quality of the deficit has degenerated," said Samy Chaar, an economist at Lombard Odier. "If you invest, and spend on productive investments, you'll get macro payoffs, because you're going to develop an industry, you're going to strengthen your economy, you're going to create jobs, you have a payoff. "If you spend by basically reducing revenues because you cut taxes on people who don't need the money, they won't be consuming more, or investing more, so the macro payoff is more limited." US Treasuries were yielding around 4.45 per cent, down 3.4 basis points on the day. Data on US consumer inflation for May due out on Wednesday could show the impact on tariffs on goods prices. The producer price index (PPI) report will be released a day later. "May's US CPI and PPI data will be scrutinised for signs of lingering inflationary pressures," said Convera's FX and macro strategist Kevin Ford. "If core CPI remains elevated, expectations for rate cuts could be pushed beyond the June 18 FOMC meeting." Traders expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week. Just 44 basis points worth of easing have been priced in by December. In commodity markets, oil prices rose on the back of optimism that Tuesday's US-China talks could ease trade tensions and improve demand for energy, pushing Brent crude up 0.5 per cent to $US67.40 a barrel. Spot gold rose 0.4 per cent to $US3,341 an ounce. Global stocks and the dollar have held steady as trade talks between the United States and China continued into a second day, giving investors some reason to believe tensions between the world's two largest economies may be easing. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said discussions between the two sides were going well, while President Donald Trump on Monday put a positive spin on the talks after Monday's session. Lutnick, together with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met their Chinese counterparts in London. Any progress in the negotiations is likely to provide relief to markets given that Trump's often-shifting tariff announcements and swings in Sino-US ties have undermined the two economies, disrupted supply chains and threaten to hobble global growth. World stocks, as reflected by the MSCI All-Country World index, traded near record highs on Tuesday while the dollar steadied against a range of currencies. "While market participants are clearly taking a glass half-full view of the outlook, both on trade policy and more broadly, we don't think that should be interpreted as a view that tariffs will be fully unwound," said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics. Goltermann anticipates US duties on Chinese goods to settle at around 40 per cent, while most analysts have said that the universal 10 per cent levy on imports into the United States is here to stay. In Europe the STOXX 600 edged lower, led by UBS whose shares dropped seven per cent as investors worried about the impact of new government proposals to force the Swiss bank to hold $US26 billion in extra capital. US stock futures were trading around 0.1 per cent higher. Meanwhile in Tokyo, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said policymakers were looking at measures to promote domestic ownership of Japanese government bonds, a day after Reuters reported that Japan is considering buying back some super-long government bonds issued in the past at low interest rates. The yield on the 10-year JGB was flat at 1.47 per cent, while 30-year yields were up one basis point at 2.92 per cent, having retreated from late May's record high of 3.18 per cent. The yen strengthened throughout the day, leaving the dollar roughly unchanged on the day around 144.5 yen, while the euro also turned positive, up 0.1 per cent at $US1.1428. The pound dropped 0.3 per cent to $US1.35 after weak UK employment data. Trump's erratic trade policies and worries over Washington's growing debt pile have dented investor confidence in US assets, in turn undermining the dollar, which has already fallen more than eight per cent this year. "It's not that the Americans are blowing up their fiscal situation because the deficit is going to remain more or less stable. But the quality of the deficit has degenerated," said Samy Chaar, an economist at Lombard Odier. "If you invest, and spend on productive investments, you'll get macro payoffs, because you're going to develop an industry, you're going to strengthen your economy, you're going to create jobs, you have a payoff. "If you spend by basically reducing revenues because you cut taxes on people who don't need the money, they won't be consuming more, or investing more, so the macro payoff is more limited." US Treasuries were yielding around 4.45 per cent, down 3.4 basis points on the day. Data on US consumer inflation for May due out on Wednesday could show the impact on tariffs on goods prices. The producer price index (PPI) report will be released a day later. "May's US CPI and PPI data will be scrutinised for signs of lingering inflationary pressures," said Convera's FX and macro strategist Kevin Ford. "If core CPI remains elevated, expectations for rate cuts could be pushed beyond the June 18 FOMC meeting." Traders expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week. Just 44 basis points worth of easing have been priced in by December. In commodity markets, oil prices rose on the back of optimism that Tuesday's US-China talks could ease trade tensions and improve demand for energy, pushing Brent crude up 0.5 per cent to $US67.40 a barrel. Spot gold rose 0.4 per cent to $US3,341 an ounce. Global stocks and the dollar have held steady as trade talks between the United States and China continued into a second day, giving investors some reason to believe tensions between the world's two largest economies may be easing. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said discussions between the two sides were going well, while President Donald Trump on Monday put a positive spin on the talks after Monday's session. Lutnick, together with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met their Chinese counterparts in London. Any progress in the negotiations is likely to provide relief to markets given that Trump's often-shifting tariff announcements and swings in Sino-US ties have undermined the two economies, disrupted supply chains and threaten to hobble global growth. World stocks, as reflected by the MSCI All-Country World index, traded near record highs on Tuesday while the dollar steadied against a range of currencies. "While market participants are clearly taking a glass half-full view of the outlook, both on trade policy and more broadly, we don't think that should be interpreted as a view that tariffs will be fully unwound," said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics. Goltermann anticipates US duties on Chinese goods to settle at around 40 per cent, while most analysts have said that the universal 10 per cent levy on imports into the United States is here to stay. In Europe the STOXX 600 edged lower, led by UBS whose shares dropped seven per cent as investors worried about the impact of new government proposals to force the Swiss bank to hold $US26 billion in extra capital. US stock futures were trading around 0.1 per cent higher. Meanwhile in Tokyo, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said policymakers were looking at measures to promote domestic ownership of Japanese government bonds, a day after Reuters reported that Japan is considering buying back some super-long government bonds issued in the past at low interest rates. The yield on the 10-year JGB was flat at 1.47 per cent, while 30-year yields were up one basis point at 2.92 per cent, having retreated from late May's record high of 3.18 per cent. The yen strengthened throughout the day, leaving the dollar roughly unchanged on the day around 144.5 yen, while the euro also turned positive, up 0.1 per cent at $US1.1428. The pound dropped 0.3 per cent to $US1.35 after weak UK employment data. Trump's erratic trade policies and worries over Washington's growing debt pile have dented investor confidence in US assets, in turn undermining the dollar, which has already fallen more than eight per cent this year. "It's not that the Americans are blowing up their fiscal situation because the deficit is going to remain more or less stable. But the quality of the deficit has degenerated," said Samy Chaar, an economist at Lombard Odier. "If you invest, and spend on productive investments, you'll get macro payoffs, because you're going to develop an industry, you're going to strengthen your economy, you're going to create jobs, you have a payoff. "If you spend by basically reducing revenues because you cut taxes on people who don't need the money, they won't be consuming more, or investing more, so the macro payoff is more limited." US Treasuries were yielding around 4.45 per cent, down 3.4 basis points on the day. Data on US consumer inflation for May due out on Wednesday could show the impact on tariffs on goods prices. The producer price index (PPI) report will be released a day later. "May's US CPI and PPI data will be scrutinised for signs of lingering inflationary pressures," said Convera's FX and macro strategist Kevin Ford. "If core CPI remains elevated, expectations for rate cuts could be pushed beyond the June 18 FOMC meeting." Traders expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week. Just 44 basis points worth of easing have been priced in by December. In commodity markets, oil prices rose on the back of optimism that Tuesday's US-China talks could ease trade tensions and improve demand for energy, pushing Brent crude up 0.5 per cent to $US67.40 a barrel. Spot gold rose 0.4 per cent to $US3,341 an ounce. Global stocks and the dollar have held steady as trade talks between the United States and China continued into a second day, giving investors some reason to believe tensions between the world's two largest economies may be easing. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said discussions between the two sides were going well, while President Donald Trump on Monday put a positive spin on the talks after Monday's session. Lutnick, together with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met their Chinese counterparts in London. Any progress in the negotiations is likely to provide relief to markets given that Trump's often-shifting tariff announcements and swings in Sino-US ties have undermined the two economies, disrupted supply chains and threaten to hobble global growth. World stocks, as reflected by the MSCI All-Country World index, traded near record highs on Tuesday while the dollar steadied against a range of currencies. "While market participants are clearly taking a glass half-full view of the outlook, both on trade policy and more broadly, we don't think that should be interpreted as a view that tariffs will be fully unwound," said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics. Goltermann anticipates US duties on Chinese goods to settle at around 40 per cent, while most analysts have said that the universal 10 per cent levy on imports into the United States is here to stay. In Europe the STOXX 600 edged lower, led by UBS whose shares dropped seven per cent as investors worried about the impact of new government proposals to force the Swiss bank to hold $US26 billion in extra capital. US stock futures were trading around 0.1 per cent higher. Meanwhile in Tokyo, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said policymakers were looking at measures to promote domestic ownership of Japanese government bonds, a day after Reuters reported that Japan is considering buying back some super-long government bonds issued in the past at low interest rates. The yield on the 10-year JGB was flat at 1.47 per cent, while 30-year yields were up one basis point at 2.92 per cent, having retreated from late May's record high of 3.18 per cent. The yen strengthened throughout the day, leaving the dollar roughly unchanged on the day around 144.5 yen, while the euro also turned positive, up 0.1 per cent at $US1.1428. The pound dropped 0.3 per cent to $US1.35 after weak UK employment data. Trump's erratic trade policies and worries over Washington's growing debt pile have dented investor confidence in US assets, in turn undermining the dollar, which has already fallen more than eight per cent this year. "It's not that the Americans are blowing up their fiscal situation because the deficit is going to remain more or less stable. But the quality of the deficit has degenerated," said Samy Chaar, an economist at Lombard Odier. "If you invest, and spend on productive investments, you'll get macro payoffs, because you're going to develop an industry, you're going to strengthen your economy, you're going to create jobs, you have a payoff. "If you spend by basically reducing revenues because you cut taxes on people who don't need the money, they won't be consuming more, or investing more, so the macro payoff is more limited." US Treasuries were yielding around 4.45 per cent, down 3.4 basis points on the day. Data on US consumer inflation for May due out on Wednesday could show the impact on tariffs on goods prices. The producer price index (PPI) report will be released a day later. "May's US CPI and PPI data will be scrutinised for signs of lingering inflationary pressures," said Convera's FX and macro strategist Kevin Ford. "If core CPI remains elevated, expectations for rate cuts could be pushed beyond the June 18 FOMC meeting." Traders expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week. Just 44 basis points worth of easing have been priced in by December. In commodity markets, oil prices rose on the back of optimism that Tuesday's US-China talks could ease trade tensions and improve demand for energy, pushing Brent crude up 0.5 per cent to $US67.40 a barrel. Spot gold rose 0.4 per cent to $US3,341 an ounce.
Man of Many
4 days ago
- Man of Many
Retro Revival: Why Longines is Banking on the Vintage Watch Trend
In a softening global market, Swiss luxury watchmaker Longines is banking on vintage nostalgia to drive sales, proving that you don't have to reinvent the wheel, just reissue it. Don't call it a comeback, Longines' retro-revival is far more nuanced than that. If you have been paying attention to the global watch market over the past five years, two things may have stood out. The first is the rapid acceleration of the second-hand market as the sentiment surrounding timepieces shifts from interest to investment, while the second is the remarkable revitalisation of Longines. What may be surprising to note is that the two aren't mutually exclusive. In a market where tech-laden smartwatches and ultra-modern designs dominate headlines, the Swiss watchmaker is leaning into its past to shape the future. With a renewed focus on vintage-inspired designs, Longines is tapping into a wave of nostalgia that's sweeping through the watch world, and it may end up paying dividends. You don't need to look far to see where the influence lies. At the heart of Longines' retro revival is the Heritage Collection, a carefully curated series of reissued timepieces that borrow directly from the brand's archives. From the revival of the much-loved Ultra-Chron in 2022 to the recent unveiling of the Spirit Zulu Time 1925, the maison's retro-modernist approach is helping to bridge the gap between old-world charm and contemporary elegance. And while the designs may feel timeless, outgoing CEO Matthias Breschan revealed that the strategy behind them is anything but old-fashioned. 'The watch industry, in general, is perhaps the only industry that really draws inspiration from the past to define the future,' he told me back in March during Longines' press meeting in Seoul. 'This is very unique. And while we try to be inspired by the past, we do so using state-of-the-art technology, because all the watches that we have now are exclusive Longines calibres, all of them. We will definitely continue to go in this direction. What made Longines so strong in the past century was that it was one of the most awarded brands when it came to the precision of watch calibres.' Leveraging History The outgoing CEO, who announced his departure from the role earlier this month, has been instrumental in taking the brand from a mid-tier luxury watch brand to arguably the industry's most exciting producer. Recent product line extensions, most notably with the Ultra-Chron Carbon, Spirit Zulu Time Titanium and Pilot Majetek Pioneer Edition, have demonstrated the brand's finesse for reimagining the design codes of the past for a modern audience. As Breschan explained, Longines' success has always been underpinned by expertise and tradition, and for good reason. Few brands can hold a candle to Longines' frankly ludicrous level of historical significance in the realms of product development, innovation and growth. The brand famously introduced the first two-time-zone dial timepiece in 1908, brought modern chronograph technology to the masses with its Calibre 13.33Z in 1913 and, perhaps most impressively of all, pioneered the first-ever wrist chronograph with a flyback function. As Breschan explains, the spirit of innovation isn't just a marketing tagline; for Longines, it is the brand's very DNA. 'So many people don't know that Longines invented all these GMT movements, flyback movements, and that we had this huge advantage in high-frequency technology,' he said. 'Now this is the point where we need to bring this information to the wider public, because I truly consider, after Breguet, the Longines history and heritage is the nicest in the whole Swiss watch industry.' 'When you go back in history, there are some very iconic milestones in the Longines story. So Longines was extremely well known, of course, for the first Chronograph Flyback, the 13ZN movement…This is a big difference because most brands develop products, and then they somehow try to find a story to tell around it. But for us, the story to tell is written in our history books. This is a huge advantage.' The Vintage Revival In this current economic climate, watch maisons are looking for any advantage they can get, and for Longines, it means taking a piece of the vintage pie. With a sharp increase in demand for vintage timepieces, largely from the youth consumer market, BRescahn believes there is a greater opportunity for watch brands with legacy to make meaningful inroads. 'I think we have the big advantage and luxury that we can almost cherry-pick the best parts in our history and heritage to develop new watches that are vintage-inspired or even almost replica-styles,' Breschan said. 'This gives us really an amazing platform that we can use in the future because the interest, in particular for young people, now in these (vintage) watches, is growing. They see the mechanical watch as a sustainable piece. You don't throw it away after six or 12 months; you keep it for a lifetime, or the next generation, and there's a good chance that the value will increase.' 'It's really something, I would also say, that is not only in the watch industry but outside, totally corresponding to the spirit of the young generation, what they expect today from a good consumer product.' The New Longines Consumer Admittedly, Longines' trajectory faces some uphill battles. Breschan exits the CEO role at a time when the brand's global sales have softened, largely due to weakened demand from Chinese consumers. In its January annual report, Swatch Group noted that despite record sales and market share gains in the USA, Japan, India and the Middle East, the 'persistently difficult market situation' in China was proving to be a difficult obstacle. The challenge, not exclusive to Longines, is seeing the wider watch industry change tack to accommodate new consumer demographics and price point is the name of the game. 'We should never forget that while when you compare it (Longines) to many brands, you could say 'Up to USD$1,000 to USD$5,000 is nothing'. There are so many watches that sell for $10, $50, $100,000, but for 99 per cent of the population, $1,000 to $5,000 US dollars or Australian dollars is a lot of money This is what we should never forget,' Breschan explained. 'This is a segment that is still, in particular for young people, a very interesting segment where we want to stay. We have always stayed there in the past, and we continue to stay there.' '(We love) to take something inspired from the past and then marry it with state-of-the-art technology, but also ensure that we stay in our price range of 1,000 to 5,000 US dollars. So we really want to bring the state-of-the-art technology in this price segment where we're always strong and which we dominate with the market share, depending on the counter between 20 and 80 per cent.' 'We have something that is unique, that differentiates us from all others. This is why our success, even within the multi-brand environment, is very different and larger versus the other brands because we bring an added value that nobody else has.'
