Moderna Is Cutting 10,000 Jobs as Its Business Erodes. How Should You Play MRNA Stock Here?

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16 hours ago

Moderna (MRNA) skyrocketed to fame during the pandemic, delivering one of the first mRNA-based Covid-19 vaccines and quickly becoming a Wall Street darling. Its vaccine shot brought in billions, positioning the biotech firm as a symbol of innovation and speed in a global crisis. But the post-Covid world hasn't been as kind. With vaccination rates falling and Spikevax sales drying up, revenues have tumbled. The gold rush moment is clearly over.
Now, in a bid to stay lean, Moderna is cutting roughly 10% of its workforce as part of a broader plan to reduce annual operating expenses by $1.5 billion through 2027. The company tried to dodge layoffs by tightening R&D budgets, dialing down manufacturing, and renegotiating supplier deals. But with the market shifting and respiratory vaccine sales stalling, CEO Stéphane Bancel says it's time to realign the business with a leaner game plan.
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The company is betting big on a pipeline loaded with promise — next-gen mRNA shots in oncology, rare diseases, and latent viruses. But with MRNA stock down more than 90% from its pandemic highs and policy headwinds brewing, is this a comeback play or a value trap? How should investors approach the biotech stock now?
About Moderna Stock
Based in Cambridge, Massachusetts and founded in 2010, Moderna began as a moonshot on mRNA tech, chasing cures for infectious diseases, rare disorders, cancer, and more. Backed by major players like AstraZeneca (AZN) and the Gates Foundation, it built a powerful platform with world-changing potential. Its market capitalization currently stands at $10.4 billion.
When the pandemic hit, Moderna went from a clinical-stage underdog to a global hero with a Covid-19 vaccine that changed everything. But as the world moved on, demand faded, and so did the company's momentum.
After peaking just shy of $500 in 2021, MRNA stock has crashed 94% from that level. In 2025 alone, shares are down 37%, including a 12% dip in just the past month. A lukewarm second-quarter earnings report last week triggered a 6.6% dip in just one session.
In terms of valuation, MRNA stock is trading at 3.3 times sales, which is lower than its own five-year average multiple.
Moderna's Mixed Q2 Earnings Report
On Aug. 1, Moderna dropped its Q2 earnings report, showing signs of tighter control amid a post-Covid reset. The company posted a loss of $2.13 per share, still in the red, but better than both Wall Street's projections and last year's results. Revenue came in at $142 million, down 41% year-over-year (YOY) but still ahead of estimates. The decline was due to shrinking demand for its Covid-19 vaccine, Spikevax, which made up nearly all of the $114 million in product sales.
The real story here isn't just about numbers but about a pivot. With the pandemic in the rearview, Spikevax is settling into its new role as a seasonal product, and mResvia — the company's newly launched RSV vaccine — barely moved the needle this quarter. Add to that a sharp 51% drop in collaboration and licensing revenue, and it is clear the biotech is feeling the squeeze.
So, Moderna is tightening its belt, and fast. Operating costs are being hacked down as part of a major restructuring. SG&A expenses fell 14%, and R&D was slashed 43% to $700 million, largely due to scaled-back respiratory programs and slower clinical activity. But perhaps the most visible shift is in the workforce. As part of the company's cost-streamlining drive, it is trimming nearly 10% of its global staff. It's a tough call, but a necessary one to keep the long-term mission on track.
Looking forward, Moderna revised its full-year revenue guidance to between $1.5 billion and $2.2 billion, down $300 million from its earlier high-end forecast. The reason is that a delivery delay of U.K. vaccine orders has now pushed into early 2026. Most of the 2025 revenue is expected to roll in during the second half, with Q3 pulling in about 40% to 50% of that haul.
Meanwhile, R&D guidance has also been trimmed to $3.6 billion and $3.8 billion, aligning with workforce reductions and lower clinical spend. Despite the turbulence, the company is set to close 2025 with approximately $6 billion in cash and investments — a solid cushion for navigating whatever comes next.
Analysts tracking the biotech company anticipate Moderna's losses to deepen by 11% YOY to around -$9.82 per share in fiscal 2025, then narrow by 27% annually to -$7.21 per share in fiscal 2026.
What Do Analysts Expect for Moderna Stock?
After Moderna's Q2 earnings release, Wall Street's confidence took a softer tone, reflected clearly in the updated price targets. Bank of America nudged its target down to $24 from $25, holding firm on its 'Underperform' rating. Analyst Tim Anderson is not sold on Moderna's long-term growth story, pointing out that the company's near- and mid-term outlook still leans heavily on Covid vaccine sales, which are notoriously hard to predict in this post-pandemic world.
Bank of America has been skeptical for a while. The firm reinstated coverage back in December with that same 'Underperform' call, flagging doubts about the company's other programs like RSV and CMV. Despite Moderna's push to diversify, the brokerage firm is not yet convinced there's enough there to support sustainable growth.
Barclays also reined things in, trimming its price target from $40 to $31 while maintaining an 'Equal Weight' rating. Analyst Gena Wang said the downward shift stems largely from Moderna pushing some U.K. vaccine revenue into early 2026. Still, Wang believes further cost-cutting should help Moderna stay on track with its goal of breaking even by 2028.
Moderna's reinvention pitch is loud, but the Street is staying cautious. Among the 26 analysts covering MRNA stock, the consensus rating is a 'Hold.' That's based on three analysts recommending a 'Strong Buy,' 19 advising a 'Hold,' one giving a 'Moderate Sell,' and the remaining three suggesting a 'Strong Sell.'
The mean price target of $41.90 for MRNA stock suggests more than 57% upside potential from current levels. The Street-high target of $198 implies that the stock could rally as much as 644%.
On the date of publication, Sristi Suman Jayaswal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com