Are Latter-day Saints shifting left? Here's what the data shows
The Republican rebound among young and moderate voters goes against some predictions of a permanent Latter-day Saint shift toward the Democratic Party during the Trump era, according to a comparison of election data published Monday by political scientist Ryan Burge.
'There's nothing here that says that the LDS vote is trending to the left,' Burge told the Deseret News. 'You can't look at the data and make that claim.'
Trump's initial lackluster showing among Latter-day Saints in 2016 has largely been reversed, Burge shows, with moderate voters moving 15 percentage points toward Trump since 2020, and younger voters jumping 25 points back his direction.
Much has been made of Latter-day Saints' lukewarm reception of Trump in 2016.
That year, Trump received just 52% of the Latter-day Saint vote — down 30 percentage points from Mitt Romney in 2012, and 20 points from John McCain in 2008.
The drop was mostly caused by Trump's bid pushing 26% of Latter-day Saint voters toward third-party candidate Evan McMullin, Burge said, while 22% voted for Hillary Clinton.
But with no viable third-party alternative in 2020 and 2024, Trump's vote share among Latter-day Saints surged, resulting in identical results both times: with 66% of Latter-day Saints voting for Trump, and 30% for his opponent.
'I think most of the hesitancy people had about Trump went away,' Burge said.
Burge's calculations are based on the latest data from the Cooperative Election Study, an election-year poll that surveyed 144,500 people from 2022 to 2024, including 1,600 self-identified Latter-day Saints.
Taking a deeper look at the Latter-day Saint data reveals multiple transformations occurring simultaneously within one of the most religiously and civically active demographics in the United States.
While Latter-day Saint voters continue to lean heavily Republican, Trump's rise to the top of conservative politics has contributed to real changes in Latter-day Saint political identification.
Republican Party affiliation among Latter-day Saints fell from around 75% before Trump, to 64% in 2016, 62% in 2020 and 58% in 2024.
Democratic affiliation, on the other hand, increased by 9 points, to 25%, and the percentage of independents doubled to 17%, during the same time period.
Meanwhile, the share of Latter-day Saints who identify as 'conservative' fell from 61% to 50%, leading to an increase in self-described 'moderates' from 30% to 38%.
But, as can be seen in the overall Latter-day Saint vote, these shifts have not translated to the ballot box.
Trump's performance among Latter-day Saints has actually improved, paradoxically, as some voters attempt to distance themselves from certain conservative labels, Burge said.
In 2016, 64% of Latter-day Saint voters identified as Republicans, and 61% as conservative, but Trump received around 50% of their vote.
In 2024, GOP affiliation had fallen to 58%, and conservative identity to 50%, but Trump netted 66% of the Latter-day Saint vote.
These crosscurrents could represent a desire among a substantial portion of Latter-day Saints to remain independent from 'the whole MAGA movement,' Burge said, even if they can't stomach the Democratic alternative and still vote for Trump.
'A lot of people want to say they're ideologically moderate but if you actually look at the way those groups vote, it's almost always leaning to what the larger group does,' Burge said. 'A vote's a binary choice, you don't get to stand in the middle on that.'
Opposing pressures among the Latter-day Saint electorate have created a genuine 'swing voting bloc' among moderates, according to Burge.
In 2020, moderate Latter-day Saints favored Joe Biden over Trump by 27 points, with nearly 60% voting Democrat. In 2024, however, moderate Latter-day Saints were split down the middle between Trump and Kamala Harris.
Many of these swing voters appear to be those who came of age amid Trump's dominance in American politics.
Less than one-third, 31%, of Latter-day Saint voters age 18-35 cast their ballot for Trump in 2020. But in 2024, Trump received support from 56% of young Latter-day Saints.
The flip among young and moderate Latter-day Saint voters likely has something to do with tribal identities, and voters wanting to fit in with their community, Burge said, pointing out that 75% of Latter-day Saints over 50 voted for Trump in 2024.
What's more, the relatively small gap in partisan affiliation among the youngest Latter-day Saint voters — with about 50% identifying as Republican and 35% as Democrat — is likely to grow over time because voters tend to become more conservative as they age, Burge said.
But the increase in support for Trump among young Latter-day Saints might also reflect a process of self-selection, according to Burge.
Politics has a greater impact on religious loyalties than many people would like to admit, Burge said, and some young people who leave the Republican Party because of Trump may also leave The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints for linking or overlapping reasons.
'People are drawn to or from religious groups based on their political persuasion,' Burge said. 'What you're really seeing with the 18-35-year-old group of young LDS is the true believers because they're still identifying as LDS.'
The church has issued statements declaring itself strictly 'neutral in matters of party politics.' The general handbook says, 'The Church does not endorse any political party or candidate. Nor does it advise members how to vote.'
The church encourages its members to 'engage in the political process in an informed and civil manner, respecting the fact that members of the church come from a variety of backgrounds and experiences and may have differences of opinion in partisan political matters.'
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