Should You Buy Pfizer Stock Ahead of Its Q2 Results?

Forbes

3 days ago

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) is set to announce its earnings on Tuesday, August 5, 2025, prior to the market opening. Analyzing Pfizer's stock performance over the previous five years after earnings announcements indicates a trend towards positive movement. In 53% of cases, PFE stock has experienced a positive one-day return following the announcement of results. The median positive return stands at 3.2%, with a peak one-day gain of 6.1%.
For event-driven traders, grasping these historical trends can offer a strategic advantage, although the actual outcomes relative to consensus and expectations will be the final deciding factor. Traders can tackle this from two angles:
The consensus analyst forecast for the upcoming quarter points to earnings of $0.58 per share on sales of $13.53 billion. This is in comparison to earnings of $0.60 per share on sales of $13.28 billion in the same quarter the previous year.
In terms of fundamentals, Pfizer currently boasts a market capitalization of $132 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $62 billion in revenue and sustained operational profitability, with $15 billion in operating profits and a net income of $7.9 billion.
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See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Pfizer's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional information regarding the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is presented alongside the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not effective if the correlation is low) involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identifying a pair with the highest correlation, and executing the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the highest correlation, a trader can take a 'long' position for the following 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data derived from a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
At times, peer performance can affect the stock reaction following earnings. In fact, pricing might start before the earnings announcement. Here is some historical data on the post-earnings performance of Pfizer stock in comparison with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Pfizer. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
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