Can Dylan Cease, Jackson Chourio improve in the second half? What's holding them back?

New York Times

22-07-2025

With a little over two months left in the season, I will look at a couple of players who have underperformed expectations so far. Can Dylan Cease and Jackson Chourio have a stronger second half of the season? What would it take for them to show improvement?
Dylan Cease had an underwhelming first half with a 4.64 ERA, 30% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate through the All-Star Break.
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The good news is that many underlying metrics point in the right direction. Cease's velocity is still high, and his 3.49 FIP indicates that factors outside of Cease's control contributed to his inflated ERA. That said, we can't just assume that he has been unlucky.
Looking at his tunneling, Cease has more separation between his four-seamer and slider this season than last. The last time Cease had this much separation was in 2023, another season when his ERA was higher (4.58).
In the images below, look at the red (four-seamer) and yellow (slider) lines around the pink dots. The pink dots represent the hitters' decision point. At this location, Cease performs best when the lines are as close together as possible (like in 2024 and 2022).
Graphics and data from Baseball Savant
Tunneling is important because it prevents the hitter from recognizing a pitch early in its trajectory. Cease's most successful seasons in the past few years have occurred when he could tunnel his four-seamer and slider tightly.
Cease's control and splits both remain in line with his career. The biggest difference in his results stems from contact quality against his pitching. Cease's 42% hard-hit rate against is the worst of his career, and it comes with a 9.9% barrel rate, which ties his career worst.
Against righties, Cease primarily throws a slider and a four-seamer. He reduced his sweeper usage in favor of a sinker this season, but the usage of either is so rare that the impact is minimal. He uses his slider down and away and his four-seamer up and away. He does not throw to the inner half.
Graphic from Baseball Savant
Righties are doing damage and capitalizing on Cease's first pitch.
Cease's first pitch is a slider 48% of the time, and his four-seamer is thrown on the first pitch 40% of the time, so he's mixing his stuff well. However, a few poor locations have led to damage.
Knowing that the tunneling is a factor, hitters may be able to differentiate spin better (when left up in the zone) from fastballs in the zone.
Against lefties, Cease is still mainly throwing a four-seamer and slider, but depending on the count, he'll also occasionally mix in his curveball. He uses his slider backdoor, his four-seamer up and his curveball lower-half and below the zone.
Like righties, lefties are doing most of their damage on Cease's first pitch, but they have also done well when behind in the count.
The sample size for curveballs is very small. Data and graphics from Baseball Savant.
Ten of the 19 hits Cease has given up against his four-seamer came when he was ahead in the count. Like against righties, the tunneling issue may allow hitters better reads out of hand.
Getting the four-seamer and slider tunneled as tightly as possible is key to Cease's improvement.
In his second MLB season, Chourio has a .757 OPS, 20% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate. While his OPS and strikeout rate are not bad, Chourio entered the season with a lot of hype, given his top-prospect status. He has so far performed worse than in his debut season (.791 OPS).
Chourio had an aggressive approach last season and has been more aggressive this season. He often ambushes the first pitch but does well against it with a .338 batting average. While his approach may seem to work, difficulties arise when an at-bat extends beyond the first pitch because he frequently gets behind in the count.
Falling behind in the count makes it more difficult for Chourio to succeed. Comparing his stats shows a significant difference in his results when he has disadvantageous counts.
Falling behind so frequently also hurts his walk rate, which is fourth-worst in baseball among qualified hitters.
When Chourio falls behind, he makes poor swing decisions more frequently. The graphic below shows all of the pitches Chourio has either taken or swung at in 0-1 counts:
He consistently chases pitches outside and above the zone that he is unlikely to hit well. When he gets ahead, his results improve, and he can make quality swing decisions.
The graphic below shows all of the pitches Chourio has either swung at or taken in 1-0 counts:
While Chourio may be too aggressive on pitches inside, he tends to do significant damage when hitting pitches in the inner half.
A contributing factor is when he gets ahead, he sees significantly more fastballs (68% of the time).
Chourio is doing well with ambushing the first pitch, so I would not recommend he become more passive just to have deeper at-bats. However, given how well he does in favorable counts, it also limits his offensive ceiling. Despite not showing above-average plate discipline in his minor-league career, he can make good swing decisions when he has count leverage. For this reason, if he can find a way to continue making smart swing decisions when he falls behind, he will be better equipped to extend his success to at-bats with unfavorable counts.
Thoughts on NYY Cam Schlittler's MLB debut (p.s. go huskies!) pic.twitter.com/LhNOI7UbVW
— Andrea (@scoutgirlreport) July 10, 2025
(Photo of Jackson Chourio: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)