Slower US job growth in July likely, unemployment seen at 4.2%
The anticipated slowdown in nonfarm payrolls in the Labour Department's closely watched employment report yesterday would mostly be payback after a surprise surge in state and local government education boosted employment gains in June.
The US central bank on Wednesday left its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25-4.5% range. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments after the decision undercut confidence the central bank would resume policy easing in September as had been widely anticipated by financial markets and some economists.
Though Powell described the labour market as being in balance because of supply and demand both declining at the same time, he acknowledged that this dynamic was 'suggestive of downside risk.' Job growth has slowed amid uncertainty over where President Donald Trump's tariff levels will eventually settle.
Trump on Thursday slapped dozens of trading partners with steep tariffs ahead of yesterday's trade deal deadline, including a 35% duty on many goods from Canada.
The White House's immigration crackdown has reduced labour supply as has an acceleration of baby boomer retirements.
'We just don't have a roadmap yet with respect to tariffs, and now that it's coming into place, I think that can certainly help, but if you're thinking about what you're planning for your business over the next two to three years ... you don't want to make that decision until you know what your costs of running your business are going to be,' said Michael Reid, senior US economist at RBC Capital Markets.
Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 110,000 jobs last month after rising by 147,000 in June, a Reuters survey of economists showed. That reading would be below the three-month average gain of 150,000. Estimates ranged from no jobs added to an increase of 176,000 positions. An economist predicting no change in payrolls pointed to the jump in state and local government education jobs in June, which accounted for nearly half of the employment gains that month.
'When the academic year ends, there is a huge drop in payroll levels at schools,' said Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander US Capital Markets. 'The fact that there were fewer reductions than usual in June suggests to me that more of the usual wave of reductions came in July.'
Stanley also argued that there had been a torrent of anecdotal and survey evidence suggesting that businesses large and small slowed their hiring activity this summer in the face of elevated policy uncertainty. This led Stanley to anticipate private sector payrolls growth slowed further in July rather than accelerated as most economists expected after the economy added the fewest jobs in eight months in June.
Federal government job losses as the Trump administration wields the axe on headcount and spending, excluding immigration enforcement, could mount after the Supreme Court gave the White House the green light for mass firings.
But the administration has also said several agencies were not planning to proceed with layoffs.
The reduction in immigration flows means the economy now needs to create roughly 100,000 jobs per month or less to keep up with growth in the working age population. The decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% in June was in part due to people dropping out of the labour force. July's anticipated rise would still leave the jobless rate in the narrow 4%-4.2% range that has prevailed since May 2024.
'The July jobs report is unlikely to shake the Fed out of its 'wait-and-see' posture,' said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. 'But it will add further evidence that the labour market is gradually losing momentum.'
Financial markets have pushed back an anticipated September rate cut to October. With tariffs starting to raise inflation, some economists believe the window for the Fed resuming policy easing this year is closing.
But others still believe the Fed could still cut rates in September, especially if the Bureau of labour Statistics' preliminary payrolls benchmark revision in September projects a sharp decline in the employment level from April 2024 through March this year.
The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, derived from reports by employers to the state unemployment insurance programs, has indicated a much slower pace of job growth between April 2024 and December 2024 than payrolls have suggested.
'If it's an ugly downward revision, the Fed will move, there is no question,' said Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College. – Reuters
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The Star
an hour ago
- The Star
From Laos to Brazil, Trump's tariffs leave a lot of losers. But even the winners like Vietnam will pay a price
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In its place is a system in which Trump himself sets the rules, using America's enormous economic power to punish countries that won't agree to one-sided trade deals and extracting huge concessions from the ones that do. "The biggest winner is Trump,' said Alan Wolff, a former U.S. trade official and deputy director-general at the World Trade Organization. "He bet that he could get other countries to the table on the basis of threats, and he succeeded - dramatically.'' Everything goes back to what Trump calls "Liberation Day'' - April 2 - when the president announced "reciprocal'' taxes of up to 50% on imports from countries with which the United States ran trade deficits and 10% "baseline'' taxes on almost everyone else. He invoked a 1977 law to declare the trade deficit a national emergency that justified his sweeping import taxes. That allowed him to bypass Congress, which traditionally has had authority over taxes, including tariffs - all of which is now being challenged in court. Trump retreated temporarily after his Liberation Day announcement triggered a rout in financial markets and suspended the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days to give countries a chance to negotiate. Eventually, some of them did, caving to Trump's demands to pay what four months ago would have seemed unthinkably high tariffs for the privilege of continuing to sell into the vast American market. The United Kingdom agreed to 10% tariffs on its exports to the United States - up from 1.3% before Trump amped up his trade war with the world. The US demanded concessions even though it had run a trade surplus, not a deficit, with the UK for 19 straight years. The European Union and Japan accepted U.S. tariffs of 15%. Those are much higher than the low single-digit rates they paid last year - but lower than the tariffs he was threatening (30% on the EU and 25% on Japan). Also cutting deals with Trump and agreeing to hefty tariffs were Pakistan, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. Even countries that saw their tariffs lowered from April without reaching a deal are still paying much higher tariffs than before Trump took office. Angola's tariff, for instance, dropped to 15% from 32% in April, but in 2022 it was less than 1.5%. And while Trump administration cut Taiwan's tariff to 20% from 32% in April, the pain will still be felt. "20% from the beginning has not been our goal, we hope that in further negotiations we will get a more beneficial and more reasonable tax rate,' Taiwan's president Lai Ching-te told reporters in Taipei Friday. Trump also agreed to reduce the tariff on the tiny southern African kingdom of Lesotho to 15% from the 50% he'd announced in April, but the damage may already have been done there. Countries that didn't knuckle under - and those that found other ways to incur Trump's wrath - got hit harder. Even some of the poor were not spared. Laos' annual economic output comes to $2,100 per person and Algeria's $5,600 - versus America's $75,000. Nonetheless, Laos got rocked with a 40% tariff and Algeria with a 30% levy. Trump slammed Brazil with a 50% import tax largely because he didn't like the way it was treating former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is facing trial for trying to lose his electoral defeat in 2022. Never mind that the U.S. has exported more to Brazil than it's imported every year since 2007. Trump's decision to plaster a 35% tariff on longstanding U.S. ally Canada was partly designed to threaten Ottawa for saying it would recognize a Palestinian state. Trump is a staunch supporter of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Switzerland was clobbered with a 39% import tax - even higher than the 31% Trump originally announced on April 2. "The Swiss probably wish that they had camped in Washington'' to make a deal, said Wolff, now senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "They're clearly not at all happy.'' Fortunes may change if Trump's tariffs are upended in court. Five American businesses and 12 states are suing the president, arguing that his Liberation Day tariffs exceeded his authority under the 1977 law. In May, the U.S. Court of International Trade , a specialized court in New York, agreed and blocked the tariffs, although the government was allowed to continue collecting them while its appeal wend its way through the legal system, and may likely end up at the U.S. Supreme Court. In a hearing Thursday, the judges on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit sounded skeptical about Trump's justifications for the tariffs. "If (the tariffs) get struck down, then maybe Brazil's a winner and not a loser,'' Appleton said. Trump portrays his tariffs as a tax on foreign countries. But they are actually paid by import companies in the U.S. who try to pass along the cost to their customers via higher prices. True, tariffs can hurt other countries by forcing their exporters to cut prices and sacrifice profits - or risk losing market share in the United States. But economists at Goldman Sachs estimate that overseas exporters have absorbed just one-fifth of the rising costs from tariffs, while Americans and U.S. businesses have picked up the most of the tab. Walmart, Procter & Gamble, Ford, Best Buy, Adidas, Nike, Mattel and Stanley Black & Decker, have all hiked prices due to U.S. tariffs. "This is a consumption tax, so it disproportionately affects those who have lower incomes,'' Appleton said. "Sneakers, knapsacks ... your appliances are going to go up. Your TV and electronics are going to go up. Your video game devices, consoles are going to up because none of those are made in America.'' Trump's trade war has pushed the average U.S. tariff from 2.5% at the start of 2025 to 18.3% now, the highest since 1934, according to the Budget Lab at Yale University. And that will impose a $2,400 cost on the average household, the lab estimates. "The US consumer's a big loser,″ Wolff said. -- AP Economics Writer Christopher Rugaber contributed to this story.
Free Malaysia Today
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India will buy Russian oil despite Trump's threats
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