SEBI probe in Jane Street not over, will focus on other indices, exchanges, patterns
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Mint
3 minutes ago
- Mint
Indian stock market: Sensex, Nifty 50 remain volatile ahead of trade deal uncertainty. Key technical levels to watch out
Indian stock market: Indian benchmark indices began Monday's session on a weak note amid uncertainty, following signals from U.S. officials about a delay in planned tariffs without providing specific details. At around 9:18 am, the BSE Sensex had fallen by 131 points, or 0.16%, to 83,301, while the Nifty50 was down 37 points, or 0.15%, at 25,425. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the United States is nearing the completion of multiple trade agreements, which are expected to be finalized in the next few days. He added that the U.S. will inform other nations of increased tariff rates by July 9, with the new rates set to take effect from August 1. " Concerns surrounding a US-India trade deal and the fallout of SEBI's report on Jane Street will be influencing market movements today. There are reports of a possible interim trade deal between US and India before the July 9th tariff deadline. If that happens, that would be a positive. The regulatory action on Jane Street and its implications will be closely watched by the market. The volume of derivative trading is likely to take a hit impacting stock exchanges and some brokerages. This has implications for their stock prices, too. The short-term issues are unlikely to have any long-term impact on the market. Short-term dips can be used by long-term investors to buy high quality stocks, preferably in fairly valued largecaps. Q1 results expectations are modest. So watch out for the outperformers," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited. Last week, markets wrapped up the week on a positive note, even though trading remained largely rangebound. The Nifty settled at 25,461 with a gain of 55.7 points, while the Sensex rose by 193 points to close at 83,432. According to brokerage firm Choice Broking, the Nifty has resumed its upward trajectory after breaking out of its recent consolidation range. ' The index is currently in Wave 5 of an Elliott Impulse structure on the weekly chart, indicating a continuation of the bullish trend. As per Fibonacci extension, the next major upside targets are seen at 27,300 and 28,600. On the downside, key supports are placed at 25,000 and 24,500, where buying interest is likely to emerge,' the firm said. Support Levels: 25200-25000 Resistance Levels: 26000-26200 The Bank Nifty index ended the week at 57,031.90, down 0.72% compared to the previous week's close. While the weekly chart shows selling pressure at higher levels, the index has managed to stay above the important 57,000 level. The brokerage firm said that the Bank Nifty index is likely to face significant resistance in the 57,300–57,500 range. If the index continues to move higher, ICICIBANK from the private banking sector is expected to support the uptrend. Similarly, in the public sector banking space, SBIN and CANBK are anticipated to show strength. ' On the weekly timeframe, Bank Nifty is trading above all its key moving averages, including the short-term 20-day, medium-term 50-day, and long-term 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), indicating an overall upward trend. However, selling pressure at higher levels suggests that a consolidation phase is underway, with the index attempting to hold above the crucial 57,000 mark. Key downside support is seen in the 56,700–56,500 range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 65.39, indicating a sideways move. This consolidation phase may lead to either a time-wise or price-wise correction as the index awaits fresh triggers for the next directional move,' it said. Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Economic Times
14 minutes ago
- Economic Times
Paras Defence, BEL, GRSE tumble up to 8% as profit booking drags defence stocks
India's defence stocks declined on Monday amid profit booking and subdued broader market sentiment, following a sustained rally that had positioned the sector among the market's top performers in recent months. The Nifty India Defence index dropped 1.5%, signalling a potential pause in momentum. ADVERTISEMENT Paras Defence and Space Technologies led the slide, tumbling 8%. Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers fell 2.7%, Bharat Electronics and Bharat Dynamics each declined 2.5%, while Zen Technologies and Astra Microwave Products lost 2.2% and 2.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, a handful of stocks managed to stay in the green. DCX Systems, Unimech Aerospace and Manufacturing, BEML, Cyient DLM, and Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) were the only gainers in the Nifty India Defence index. The sell-off comes on the heels of a stellar six-month performance, with the defence index returning 34.82%, far outpacing the Nifty's 5.49% gain. In comparison, sectors like IT and pharma declined 12.18% and 6.43%, respectively, over the same period. A large part of this rally was led by state-owned defence majors like HAL, BEL, and BDL, buoyed by robust order books, healthy execution, and margin expansion. 'PSU defence companies like HAL, BEL, and BDL have reported healthy order books, margin expansion, and earnings growth. Additionally, heightened geopolitical tensions have further increased interest in the sector, both domestically and globally,' said Sagar Shinde, VP of Research at Fisdom. ADVERTISEMENT The sector's performance has translated into strong returns for mutual funds focused on defence. Over the past three months, defence-themed funds have delivered returns of up to 39%, with the category average at 36.98%. ADVERTISEMENT The Motilal Oswal Nifty India Defence ETF gained 38.58%, followed closely by the Groww Nifty India Defence ETF FOF (38.32%) and Groww Nifty India Defence ETF (38.48%). The HDFC Defence Fund, the only actively managed fund in the category, posted a 30.04% the gains, financial advisors urge caution. 'These sectors often experience cyclical performance and require timely entry and exit to capitalize on momentum, which can be difficult for most investors to navigate. Chasing current momentum in such sectors is not advisable,' said Hrishikesh Palve of Anand Rathi Wealth. ADVERTISEMENT Indian defence manufacturers are also drawing strength from the global backdrop. A recent NATO pledge to increase defence spending over the next decade is seen as an opportunity for Indian exporters, particularly those integrated into international supply chains. India's target of reaching Rs 5,000 crore in defence exports by 2025, backed by bilateral deals across Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, has further bolstered confidence in the sector's long-term potential. ADVERTISEMENT Still, some analysts warn that the sector may be entering a phase of consolidation. 'The optimism around future order wins, export growth, and policy tailwinds may already be priced in,' said Palve. 'A phase of mean reversion would not be surprising.'As of mid-2025, India's defence sector remains supported by strong fundamentals, policy push, and investor interest. But with valuations running high, Monday's decline may signal the start of a more cautious phase for this once-red-hot theme. Also read | Jane Street clampdown raises big questions for Sebi: Can the regulator stop another derivatives fraud? (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Mint
33 minutes ago
- Mint
FPI selling returns! ₹5,700 crore outflows recorded in just four sessions of July. What's behind the trend?
The Indian stock market witnessed a reversal in overseas investor activity in early July, as the lack of clarity surrounding the India–US trade deal, stretched valuations, and global trade uncertainty with reciprocal tariffs expected to take effect weighed on FPI sentiment. After remaining net buyers in the Indian stock market over the last three months, FPIs pulled out ₹ 5,772 crore in the first four trading sessions of July, remaining net sellers on each day. In June, they invested ₹ 7,488 crore, and in May and April, they bought ₹ 19,686 crore and ₹ 4,223 crore worth of Indian stocks through the exchanges, respectively. Though FPIs invested over ₹ 31,000 crore between April and June, the aggressive selling during the first quarter of 2025 more than offset the recent inflows, keeping their overall stance negative for the year so far. Total outflows now stand at over ₹ 1 lakh crore. They had withdrawn ₹ 3,973 crore in March, ₹ 34,574 crore in February, and a substantial ₹ 78,027 crore in January. According to market experts, stretched valuations are among the key reasons behind the shift in FPI stance in early July. The Nifty 50 has rebounded 17% from its April lows, pushing index valuations above long-term averages. At the same time, valuations in other Asian markets are trading at a discount to India, which experts believe could divert FPI inflows away from Indian equities. The Nifty's 12-month forward P/E ratio now stands at 21.7x, which is a 5% premium to its long-period average (LPA) of 20.7x. In contrast, its forward P/B ratio is 3.2x, a 14% premium to the historical average of 2.8x. The 12-month trailing P/E for the Nifty is at 24.5x, above its LPA of 22.8x (a 7% premium). Its trailing P/B ratio, at 3.6x, is also above the historical average of 3.1x, representing a 15% premium. The Nifty is currently trading at a 12-month forward return on equity (RoE) of 15%, above its long-term average. India's market cap-to-GDP ratio is currently at 127% of FY26E GDP (up 10.8% YoY), significantly above its long-term average of 87%. It had risen from 80% in FY19 to 132% in FY24 and 126% in FY25, after hitting a low of 57% in March 2020, as per the domestic brokerage firm Motilal Oswal. Although overseas inflows remain volatile, domestic equities continue to hold firm, supported by strong participation from domestic institutional investors, who poured ₹ 3.6 lakh crore so far in 2025. Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited, "In the first four days of July, FIIs were sellers every day, with a cumulative sell figure of ₹ 5772 crores. In the second half of June, FIIs were buyers in financials, autos and auto components, and oil and gas. They were sellers in capital goods and power. There is a trend of profit booking in segments that have done well recently." "Resumption of FII buying will hinge on two things: One, if a trade deal happens between India and the US, that will be positive for markets and FII flows; two, Q1FY 26 result indications. If the results indicate earnings recovery, that will be positive. Disappointment on these factors can impact the market and, thereby, FII flows," he further added. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
