Indian stock market: Sensex, Nifty 50 remain volatile ahead of trade deal uncertainty. Key technical levels to watch out

Mint

5 hours ago

Indian stock market: Indian benchmark indices began Monday's session on a weak note amid uncertainty, following signals from U.S. officials about a delay in planned tariffs without providing specific details.
At around 9:18 am, the BSE Sensex had fallen by 131 points, or 0.16%, to 83,301, while the Nifty50 was down 37 points, or 0.15%, at 25,425.
President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the United States is nearing the completion of multiple trade agreements, which are expected to be finalized in the next few days. He added that the U.S. will inform other nations of increased tariff rates by July 9, with the new rates set to take effect from August 1.
" Concerns surrounding a US-India trade deal and the fallout of SEBI's report on Jane Street will be influencing market movements today. There are reports of a possible interim trade deal between US and India before the July 9th tariff deadline. If that happens, that would be a positive. The regulatory action on Jane Street and its implications will be closely watched by the market. The volume of derivative trading is likely to take a hit impacting stock exchanges and some brokerages. This has implications for their stock prices, too.
The short-term issues are unlikely to have any long-term impact on the market. Short-term dips can be used by long-term investors to buy high quality stocks, preferably in fairly valued largecaps. Q1 results expectations are modest. So watch out for the outperformers," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.
Last week, markets wrapped up the week on a positive note, even though trading remained largely rangebound. The Nifty settled at 25,461 with a gain of 55.7 points, while the Sensex rose by 193 points to close at 83,432.
According to brokerage firm Choice Broking, the Nifty has resumed its upward trajectory after breaking out of its recent consolidation range.
' The index is currently in Wave 5 of an Elliott Impulse structure on the weekly chart, indicating a continuation of the bullish trend. As per Fibonacci extension, the next major upside targets are seen at 27,300 and 28,600. On the downside, key supports are placed at 25,000 and 24,500, where buying interest is likely to emerge,' the firm said.
Support Levels: 25200-25000
Resistance Levels: 26000-26200
The Bank Nifty index ended the week at 57,031.90, down 0.72% compared to the previous week's close. While the weekly chart shows selling pressure at higher levels, the index has managed to stay above the important 57,000 level.
The brokerage firm said that the Bank Nifty index is likely to face significant resistance in the 57,300–57,500 range. If the index continues to move higher, ICICIBANK from the private banking sector is expected to support the uptrend. Similarly, in the public sector banking space, SBIN and CANBK are anticipated to show strength.
' On the weekly timeframe, Bank Nifty is trading above all its key moving averages, including the short-term 20-day, medium-term 50-day, and long-term 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), indicating an overall upward trend. However, selling pressure at higher levels suggests that a consolidation phase is underway, with the index attempting to hold above the crucial 57,000 mark. Key downside support is seen in the 56,700–56,500 range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 65.39, indicating a sideways move. This consolidation phase may lead to either a time-wise or price-wise correction as the index awaits fresh triggers for the next directional move,' it said.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.