Celtics trade rankings: Predicting which players are most likely to be dealt

New York Times

2 days ago

When Jayson Tatum ruptured his Achilles in Game 4 of a second-round loss to the New York Knicks, the range of potential outcomes for the Celtics' offseason expanded. Staring at a salary-cap mess, they would have likely needed to stomach significant change anyway, but the injury brought additional possibilities into play.
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Just by keeping their players already under contract and their two draft choices, the Celtics would be committed to more than $230 million in salary next season, which would be more than $40 million above the projected luxury-tax threshold. With the repeater tax set to hit them hard, their total payroll, including luxury taxes, would reach around $500 million in that scenario. Because of that astronomical number, which would produce the most expensive roster in NBA history, it was safe to assume the Celtics would trade at least one key player this offseason anyway. Then Tatum went down, the team's chances of winning a championship next season took a huge hit, and the possibility of an even bigger shakeup arose.
One looming question for the Celtics is how much salary they want to trim. If their goal is to just get under the second apron, they should be able to do that relatively simply, though even that path would require shedding more than $20 million in salary. But with Tatum set to miss most of next season, if not all of it, the team could opt for more drastic cost-cutting measures. If they trim more than $40 million to get under the luxury tax next season and stay there in the following season, they would reset the repeater tax and give themselves more future flexibility.
Among other factors that Brad Stevens will need to weigh, the desires of new ownership should help dictate the path the Celtics take this summer. Even if the front office decides cutting more salary and escaping the luxury tax entirely would be smart given Tatum's status, would Bill Chisholm want to oversee a teardown during his first offseason? He is taking over the Celtics at a challenging time, given all the difficult decisions they will need to make this summer and the pressures on them to lower their payroll.
So, who would the Celtics trade? I'm glad you asked. Below, we placed the players into tiers based on their likelihood of being traded this offseason. Tier 1 includes the players most likely to be relocated. Tier 7 features the player most likely to stay. Free agents Al Horford and Luke Kornet were not included on this list.
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Even if the Celtics take a less aggressive approach to salary cutting, Holiday is an obvious trade candidate. Set to turn 35 this week, he could be 36 by the time Tatum plays his next game. Holiday's offense dipped this past season, but he remains one of the best defenders alive and a great locker-room influence. Though his contract isn't exactly team-friendly at this point, he's the type of veteran contending teams should want. The Celtics would miss him, but their financial demands are what they are. And their financial situation suggests they will need to trade at least one starter.
When healthy, Porziņģis has given the Celtics the inside-outside threat they envisioned when acquiring him in 2023. Still, he has missed 65 regular-season games over two campaigns with Boston and failed to hold up physically during two consecutive playoff runs. If his latest ineffective postseason plummeted his trade value too far, the Celtics could simply keep him. He averaged 19.5 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game this season, after all, and remains one of the league's most talented big men. Still, moving his expiring contract would help them address financial concerns, and he hasn't proven the Celtics can depend on him when it matters most.
The primary reason the Celtics would consider trading Hauser is extremely simple. As the payroll currently stands, they would cut about $90 million in salary and luxury-tax payments by trading him without taking back any money. Moving Hauser and either Holiday or Porziņģis could be enough for the Celtics to dip under the second apron, depending on how much salary they take back in the trades.
If they do need to trim extra salary or lower their luxury-tax payments, Hauser's $10 million for next season should be easy enough to move; it fits into the mid-level exception, which can now be used by teams under the first apron to acquire players via trade. Every team needs shooters with size, and he's one of the best — and he's only beginning a team-friendly contract extension.
As enticing as it could be to trade Hauser for financial purposes, the rest of the roster is fluid enough that the impact of such a move could easily change. The Celtics could shed enough money in other ways to hold onto Hauser's contract, which will pay him $45 million over the next four seasons.
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To escape the luxury tax entirely, the Celtics would need to eliminate more than $40 million of salary. If that is a goal for the front office, a trade of Brown and/or Derrick White would become more realistic.
Trading Brown would be painful. The front office should only consider doing it for the right price — a high one. But if Tatum's injury convinces the Celtics to take a short-term step back, a Brown trade could help them load up on draft picks and young talent while shedding significant salary. That path might not sound ideal to fans, but the collective bargaining agreement is harsh, and the Celtics' short-term outlook changed the moment Tatum went down.
The team announced Wednesday that Brown, bothered by right knee issues late in the season, underwent an arthroscopic debridement procedure, but he is expected to be ready without any limitations for training camp.
Is there a more complementary player in the NBA? White would fit on any team. He has elevated the Celtics on both ends of the court. They would surely be hesitant to trade him, but he will turn 31 in July, and the market for him would be robust. Like with Brown, the price for White would (and should) be sky-high.
Under the old CBA, players near the end of a roster were often in danger of moving because their salaries would be useful in a trade. Think back to the 2022 offseason, when the Celtics included a heap of deep-bench reserves in their trade for Malcolm Brogdon. In addition to Daniel Theis and Aaron Nesmith, Boston sent Malik Fitts, Juwan Morgan and Nik Stauskas to Indiana in that deal for salary-matching purposes. Unless you're a die-hard fan who knows the legend of Sauce Castillo, you're probably wondering to yourself, 'Who? They played for the Celtics?'
But as a second-apron team under the new CBA, the Celtics are unable to aggregate salaries in a trade. That means that they could still trade any of these players, but the likelihood isn't as high as it would have been a few years ago.
These two get their own category. They aren't at all untouchable, but should get more playing time to develop while Tatum is sidelined. Every team needs wings with size who can play. The Celtics still need to figure out whether Scheierman or Walsh can play, but should have a better idea of that after next season, assuming they remain on the roster.
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Why is Hauser a candidate to be used in a salary dump but Pritchard, also on a team-friendly deal that would fit into another team's MLE, one of the most likely Celtics to stay? Because 1) moving Hauser without receiving a player in return would save the team more money, and 2) Pritchard has played himself beyond that point. Without Tatum, Pritchard should be one of the Celtics' primary shot creators and could be in for a big season. He is ready to shoulder more responsibilities in the short- and long-term.
His injury will complicate everything for the Celtics, but he's not going anywhere.