Heat pump sales in Europe fall 23% to pre-Ukraine war levels

The Guardian

18-02-2025

Heat pump sales fell 23% in Europe last year, industry data shows, reverting to the level they were at before the war in Ukraine and slowing the shift away from gas-burning boilers.
Demand for clean heating devices fell by about half in Belgium and Germany, and by 39% in France, according to data for 13 countries that cover 85% of the European heat pump market.
The only country to buck the trend was the UK, where sales rose 63% between 2023 and 2024.
Heat pumps, which warm rooms using the same technology that fridges use to chill food, are seen as key tools to reduce reliance on foreign gas and stop global heating. The once-obscure devices experienced a surge in popularity in Europe after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine sent gas prices soaring.
'The very strong growth that appeared in 2022 and 2023 – war-related and gas price-related – didn't have a foundation in robust policy,' said Paul Kenny, director general of the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA).
He added: 'One would think in Europe – with the enemy at the gates, and energy security and energy sovereignty so important in political minds – our policymakers would take the sort of actions that society needs.'
The EHPA said the fall in sales in 2024 was driven by political uncertainty and changes to support schemes in a handful of key markets, as well as a sluggish economy leading to an overall drop in heating installations.
Analysts said the shift could be a rebound effect after two unusually good years for the industry but struggled to explain the scale of the drop. Two million heat pumps were sold in 2024 – the same as in 2021 – despite high gas prices and security fears continuing to plague Europe.
'It's just surprising given that the gas crisis isn't over,' said Jess Ralston from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, a thinktank. 'It's really uncertain times, and a slowdown in heat pumps isn't going to do any good for energy security.'
She added: 'Unless we start to move to heat pumps, we're just going to see more volatility – in household bills as well as wholesale gas prices.'
Heat pumps cost more upfront than gas boilers but are usually cheaper to run, and result in fewer societal costs from dirty air and violent weather. The International Energy Agency's roadmap to greening the economy as fast as world leaders have promised shows the share of heat pumps in global sales of heating equipment soaring from 10% in 2022 to 50% in 2026.
In markets such as Germany and the UK, the devices have also been the focus of intense disinformation campaigns that authorities are only starting to challenge.
The slump has also hit manufacturers. The EHPA said the heat pump sector has invested billions in additional capacity since the start of the war but 'much of this capacity now lies idle'. It estimated at least 4,000 jobs have been cut, and a further 6,000 workers face reduced hours or other impacts.
It called on the European Commission and national governments to put heat pumps at the centre of the clean industrial deal next week, which seeks to align the EU's climate, competitiveness and geopolitics goals.
Kenny said the fall in sales was a 'lost opportunity' for Europe. 'Without the heat pump, we don't get away from Russian gas, or American gas, or anyone else's gas.'