Oil spike on Israel-Iran conflict should ease, according to energy analysts. Here's why

CNBC

18 hours ago

The sudden spike in oil prices in response to Israel's attack against Iran should be short lived unless physical supplies are actually disrupted in the Middle East, energy analysts say. U.S. crude oil prices surged as much as 14% after Israel launched airstrikes against Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Prices have come down from the highs as it has become clear that Israel has spared the OPEC member's energy infrastructure — at least for now. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was last up $5.09, or 7.48%, to $73.13 per barrel at 9:43 a.m. ET. Global benchmark Brent rose $5.02, or 7.23%, to $74.38 per barrel. Crude oil futures are heading for the biggest intraday gain since March 2022, the month after Russia invaded Ukraine. "The increase in oil prices thus far is driven more by fears than physical impacts," Wells Fargo analyst Roger Read told clients in a note Thursday. Physical barrels of crude oil would need to be knocked out of the market for prices to rise higher at this point, Read said. The risk premium in oil prices will probably persist until investors have clarity on how Iran and the U.S. will react to Israel's strikes, said Mark Haefele, UBS global wealth management chief investment officer. "If there are no supply disruptions, oil prices should fall again," Haefele said. Just two months ago, crude prices hit the lowest levels since 2021 due to OPEC+ surging production and President Donald Trump's tariffs. Oil unlikely to face disruption Goldman Sachs is maintaining its 2026 price forecast of $56 per barrel Brent and $52 per barrel U.S. crude. Goldman is assuming oil supplies will not face serious disruption in the Middle East. Energy supplies did not end up in the cross hairs last year when Israel and Iran exchanged missile barrages, according to Citi. Iran's relations have also improved with its Gulf Arab neighbors, so Tehran is unlikely to target their supplies, according to the investment bank. "Disruptions to energy flow should be limited," Citi analysts led by Anthony Yuen told clients in a Thursday note. "Thus, heightened geopolitical tensions may well remain, but we do not expect energy prices to stay elevated for a sustained period of time." But Goldman warned that geopolitical risks have risen sharply and prices could skyrocket in extreme scenarios. Brent prices could shoot to a peak of $90 per barrel if Israel hits Iran's oil infrastructure hard enough to knock 1.75 million barrels per day out of the market for a six months, according to Goldman. Oil prices could shoot above $100 per barrel if Iran interrupts trade in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Goldman. About one-fifth of the world's oil flows through the strait. But a disruption in the strait is viewed as very unlikely by most analysts. "I've heard assessments that it would be very difficult for the Iranians to close the Strait of Hormuz, given the presence of the U.S Fifth Fleet in Bahrain," Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "But they could target tankers there, they could mine the straits," Croft said. But Iran's military power has been so degraded by Israel in previous rounds of conflict that the Islamic Republic has a limited ability to respond, said John Kilduff, founding partner at Again Capital. Oil prices usually surge in response to tensions involving Iran but then come down eventually, Kilduff said. "Cooler heads and really the reality of the situation tends to prevail and these markets calm down accordingly," Kilduff told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street."