On Covid-19 cases in India, experts say: 'Rise not a worry, no new variant or severe illness seen'

Mint

24-05-2025

India has experienced a slight rise in Covid-19 cases across nine states over the past week, alongside a similar increase observed in Southeast Asia. However, experts emphasise that case numbers in India remain low, with no alarming trends or new variants of concern identified so far.
Following a rise in Covid-19 cases in Singapore and Hong Kong, India has also begun to witness an uptick in infections, particularly in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Mumbai, Chennai, and Ahmedabad. While the overall case count remains relatively low compared to previous waves, health authorities are maintaining close surveillance of the evolving situation.
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Specialists suggest that the modest rise in India may not accurately represent the true number of Covid-19 infections, as many individuals with respiratory symptoms do not pursue Covid-19 testing. Nonetheless, there is no indication that the virus has mutated to cause more severe disease. They also note that the 'zero' active cases reported in several states might reflect insufficient testing rather than a genuine absence of infections.
Read | Covid-19 cases in Delhi: 23 new infections found; advisory issued, hospitals asked to prepare for beds, oxygen
The recent surge in cases across Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand is largely attributed to various descendants of the omicron variant, which swept the globe in 2021-2022. Microbiologists monitoring the virus's evolution state that major changes in infection patterns or severity are unlikely unless the virus undergoes a significant evolutionary shift.
'The variant in Hong Kong is NB.1.8.1, which is a combination of XDV and JN.1. XDV has evolved from XBB, and JN.1 has evolved from BA.2,' Rajesh Karyakarte, professor and head of microbiology at BJ Medical College, Pune was quoted as saying by Telegraph.
'All are derivatives of omicron variants such as XBB or JN.1 that have widely circulated in India in the past. We don't expect these derivatives to cause any major shift in hospitalisation patterns. Our high rates of vaccination and natural infections have contributed to the immunity.'
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Karyakarte, who is part of a nationwide laboratory network that tracked Covid-19 genomic changes throughout the pandemic, notes that genomic surveillance declined as infections became less severe and fewer people sought Covid-19 testing.
However, the network continued monitoring sewage samples, which experts believe could offer early warnings of emerging outbreaks in specific locations. 'Sewage surveillance continued for months even after the end of the pandemic — we saw some humps associated with mild localised increases in infections in some places, but no sharp spikes,' Souvik Mukherjee, a scientist at the National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, Kalyani, involved in the surveillance told Telegraph.
The rise in cases has not been consistent across all states. Kerala reported the most significant increase, with active cases climbing from 26 on 12 May to 95 on 19 May, followed by Maharashtra, which saw numbers rise from 12 to 56, and Tamil Nadu, increasing from 32 to 66 during the same period.
'Waning immunity, inconsistent (vaccine) booster uptake, and a demand for testing contribute to higher detection rates and infection counts,' Arup Halder, consultant pulmonologist at CMRI Hospital, Calcutta told Telegraph.