Will Chappell Roan's ‘Subway' Interrupt the Battle Between Alex Warren and ‘KPop Demon Hunters' Atop the Billboard Hot 100?

Yahoo

3 days ago

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Aug. 16, we look at whether Chappell Roan's new single will be able to get into the mix with KPop Demon Hunters and Alex Warren in the fight atop the Hot 100.
Chappell Roan, 'The Subway' (KRA/Amusement/Island/Republic): Like New Yorkers anxious to get to work on time, Chappell Roan's fans had been waiting for 'The Subway' far longer than they'd initially expected. Roan had debuted the song at a couple live dates in summer 2024, but for the next year, there was no indication of an imminent studio release. Then finally, last month, reports of Chappell filming a new music video in New York began to circulate, followed by an official announcement weeks later that the song would finally arrive on the evening of Thursday, July 31, with an official video to follow Friday morning.
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Fans were certainly ready for the dreamy new song, which debuted atop the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart — with over 3.9 million streams in its first full day of release, a high for 2025 — while also briefly topping the iTunes real-time chart, and shooting to the top of YouTube's Trending chart for music once its video was released the next morning. (The song's impact on the Apple Music real-time charts has been somewhat less, as it has thus far peaked at No. 6.) The song's daily numbers have perhaps inevitably receded from that first-day boom, but remain robust, with 'Subway' reigning for most of the week on the Spotify daily chart.
Will it be enough for 'The Subway' to pull in atop the Hot 100? That might be a challenge, as it will not be getting any help from physical sales — the vinyl single of the song sold on Roan's website is currently scheduled to ship 'on or before Halloween' — and not much support yet from radio, though the song has early boosters in SiriusXM's Hits 1, iHeartMedia's WIHT Washington, D.C., and Cox Media Group's WBLI Long Island, N.Y., with far more stations still playing her enduring hit 'Pink Pony Club' (No. 11 on Radio Songs this week).
But if the new song can gain a little extra momentum on streaming late in the week, and maybe find a small extra boost or two — like Roan's Island labelmate Sabrina Carpenter did on her way to a No. 1 debut for 'Manchild' a couple months ago — it's not impossible that 'Subway' could find its way to the top. And regardless, a debut in the top three seems very likely, which would make the song the highest-charting of Roan's career, passing the shared No. 4 peaks of current signature hits 'Good Luck, Babe!' and the aforementioned 'Pink Pony Club.'
HUNTR/X, EJAE, Audrey Nuna & Rei Ami, 'Golden' (Visva/Republic): It's six weeks now into the pop culture takeover of KPop Demon Hunters, and against all odds, the soundtrack is still growing. The Netflix soundtrack currently claims the No. 2 spots on both the Billboard 200 (with the full film soundtrack) and the Hot 100 (with HUNTR/X's 'Golden'), with the gaps shrinking every week between it and Morgan Wallen's I'm the Problem and Alex Warren's 'Ordinary' on the two charts, respectively.
It's a little closer to clearing that final hurdle on the Hot 100, with 'Golden' having long lapped 'Ordinary' on DSPs — it's now led Streaming Songs for two weeks — and also sitting right behind it on the Digital Song Sales chart this week (Nos. 4 and 5, respectively). The question of radio remains, but 'Golden' is also starting to really make its presence felt there: the song is up 73% in plays Aug. 1-4 over the same period the week before, according to Luminate, and approaching the top 25 on Pop Airplay next week.
If 'Golden' continues to surge, this could be the week it has its moment atop the Hot 100.
Alex Warren, 'Ordinary' (Atlantic): Don't count out 'Ordinary' just yet: After finally starting to slip in radio airplay last week, the nine-week Hot 100 No. 1 has rebounded slightly this week, and the song should secure an eighth week atop the Radio Songs chart. This is happening while his subsequent single 'On My Mind' with ROSÉ is also gaining in airplay and his brand-new 'Eternity' is also drawing some early radio attention. And like 'Golden,' 'Ordinary' has been discounted to 69 cents on iTunes for this tracking week — and is benefiting from buzz over his and Luke Combs' Lollapalooza performance of the song – meaning Warren and his team are still hoping to secure that benchmark 10th week atop the Hot 100 before potentially falling to Roan or HUNTR/X.
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