Why Forecasting Thunderstorms Is Still So Hard
Unlike larger weather systems, such as hurricanes or winter storms, which can be tracked over hundreds of miles and several days, thunderstorms tend to be hyperlocal and short-lived. Bill Bunting, deputy director at the federal Storm Prediction Center, said their unpredictability stems from their complexity and size.
Forecasters often know up to a week in advance if conditions are likely to be favorable for thunderstorms, but their ability to pinpoint exactly where and when those thunderstorms kick off is much more limited. In Texas, they knew July 4 could feature severe thunderstorms, but it wasn't until just a few hours before heavy rain began to inundate the area around the Guadalupe River that their exact effects became clear.
'Thunderstorms are among the smallest and shortest-lived forms of hazardous weather in the U.S.,' Mr. Bunting said. 'They're typically five to 15 miles in diameter and last 30 minutes to a few hours.'
Thunderstorms can occur nationwide, and at any time, 'day or night, throughout the entire year,' the National Weather Service says, but they are most common in the late afternoon and evening during the warm months.
To understand the difficulty of forecasting thunderstorms, it helps to understand the different types, as well as how they form.
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