Every Australian state in the firing line as wild weather sweeps nation
In an interview with Yahoo News, Dean Narramore, Senior Meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology, gave an overview of what's coming this week.
Western Australia
Western Australia will be the first to feel the full force of the system, and it's expected to arrive with intensity. Thunderstorms, strong winds and widespread showers will push across the west and south of the state from midweek, fuelled by tropical moisture. Perth is forecast to cop 35mm of rain on Wednesday.
"It's going to move into Western Australia on Wednesday, bringing widespread storms in western and southern parts of WA," Narramore said. "As it moves across WA, it's going to pull down some moisture from the tropics, and that's going to develop a very large band of rain."
South Australia
From Thursday night, South Australia will be soaked. For many communities, it could be the best rain they've seen in years. After months of dry, dusty paddocks and stubborn rainfall deficits, farmers and residents are set to get long-overdue relief.
"This is definitely a very good news story, particularly for South Australia — eastern South Australia — where we've had pretty large rainfall deficiencies over the last couple of years. It's been very, very dry," Narramore said.
"Depending on where you are, if they get 20 or 30 millimetres — which is looking pretty good — it'll be the wettest they've seen in 12 to 24 months."
Victoria
Central and eastern Victoria are shaping up as the epicentre of this event. With saturated air pushing through the Great Dividing Range and soaking already dry ground, some regions could see torrents of rain — with snow falling thickly over the peaks.
"Central and eastern Victoria could see another 50 to 80, maybe even up to 100 millimetres there," Narramore said. "And half of that could fall as snow for our alpine areas," Narramore said.
"Outside the Mount Lofty Ranges, central and northeast ranges of Victoria, and northern Tasmania — everyone else is probably going to be in that 20 to 40 millimetre range."
Tasmania
The Apple Isle is forecast to cop a serious drenching, with the system dragging moist air across the Bass Strait. The state's north in particular could see some of the highest rainfall totals, before lingering showers stretch into Sunday.
"Northern parts of Tasmania could be in that 50 to 100mm range as well," Narramore said. "And continuing showers likely into Sunday, probably easing by the end of the weekend or early next week."
NSW and ACT
While the rain won't arrive in NSW and the ACT until later in the week, when it does, it'll come in force in some regions. Widespread falls are expected from Friday through Saturday, with a mix of steady rain and bursts of intense showers, especially in the south and east.
"Friday to Saturday through Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania, with continuing showers on Sunday, probably easing by the end of the weekend or early next week," Narramore said.
On Saturday, Canberra is expecting up to 25mm of rain and Sydney up to 10mm.
Queensland
Eastern and southern Queensland will get their turn as the system rolls east, with downpours reaching inland farming communities and coastal hubs alike. Totals will vary — but many places can expect a long-awaited soaking.
"Much of southern and eastern Queensland could see anywhere from 20 to 40 millimetres of rain as well," said Narramore.
Northern Territory
It's one of the few parts of the country that will escape the worst of the weather. The Top End remains dry, and even central areas will be on the fringes of the system.
"If you drew a line from Carnarvon to Birdsville to somewhere around Mount Isa, everywhere south and west of that line is going to be impacted by this system," Narramore explained. "Pretty much northern WA and that's it — Broome will be fine, but everywhere else will see some rain or wind."
Snowfall could be the 'best in years'
Behind the rain, a blast of cold air will sweep up the ranges, and for alpine regions in NSW and Victoria, it could deliver the kind of snow totals skiers dream about. Resorts that started the season slowly could be transformed by the weekend.
"We're looking at probably 30 to 50 centimetres for alpine areas — Falls, Hotham, up through Perisher and Thredbo — through our highest peaks," Narramore said. "That should bump them up to well over a metre of base so far this season. It's really good news, particularly coming off such a bad last few years for ski seasons, because it was such a warm and dry winter."
The Bureau doesn't officially keep snowfall records, but Narramore said this event could rank among the most significant of the past decade. "This is definitely the best in the last few years, because 2023 and 2024 were really bad," he said.
Some higher peaks could even push past 50 centimetres by the end of the weekend.
Weather system is good news, but will create dangerous conditions
For the most part, this system is being welcomed, but that doesn't mean it's without risk. Damaging winds and alpine hazards could still present challenges, particularly for travellers heading into the snow.
"We've got some pretty severe weather with this front at the moment, mostly it's a good news story in terms of widespread soaking rainfall," Narramore said.
"Obviously, the dangerous part could be very heavy snowfall for alpine areas — and driving or getting up and down the mountains. There could be some dangerous and treacherous driving conditions, and you could see some damaging wind through our elevated areas and coastal parts of southeastern Australia."
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