Princeton Reports that Trump's ‘Beautiful Bill' Threatens to Decimate EV Growth by 2030
House Republicans voted along party lines to pass Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' late last week, leaving it up to the Senate to decide if the bill passes as written. If the Senate doesn't amend the bill, the EV industry will be in deep trouble, with one analysis of the bill suggesting that sales of EVs could grind to a halt as battery production stalls.
Princeton University's Zero Lab, which leads the energy and climate policy evaluation project known as the 'REPEAT Project,' recently published a comprehensive report detailing the potential impact of federal policies on the energy transition in the United States. The analysis includes electrified vehicles, and Princeton's findings are alarming. It suggests that by 2030, growth in EV battery manufacturing may be unnecessary, and sales of electric vehicles will decline by at least 40 percent.
2025 VW ID Buzz
One Big Beautiful Bill Act could demolish the EV market
The bill, if passed as-is, would end EV tax credits on December 31, 2025, rather than on December 31, 2032. Tax credits ending at the end of the year would likely boost EV sales through 2025 but cause long-term damage, according to Princeton. In addition to raising energy costs for the home, the bill would 'kill off the nascent clean hydrogen, CO2 management, and nuclear power sectors' as well as grind EV battery manufacturing to a halt.
'Without EV tax credits, planned battery cell manufacturing would result in large overcapacity,' it said, adding that new battery cell manufacturing expected to start in 2025 would bring U.S. battery production above 400 GWh per year, which is already above what would be needed under the bill.
Currently, battery cell production in the United States stands at 130 GWh, with an additional 299 GWh expected to come online by the end of the year. By 2030, another 436 GWh of battery cell production is planned. According to Princeton's review, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act assigns the maximum capacity needed at 304 GWh. This means that at the end of the year, the United States will be overproducing by about 29 percent.
Additional battery production won't even be necessary, Princeton said, noting that 29 percent overproduction is conservative, but the number could reach as high as 72 percent. While Princeton admits 'quantifying [the full impact to the EV market] is beyond the scope of this report,' it cautions two massive effects on the broader supply chain: overall demand for electric vehicle assembly and battery cell and pack manufacturing will drop sharply, and the 'loss of the battery component and critical minerals sourcing requirements enshrined in the 30D new clean vehicles tax credit would further reduce demand for battery inputs produced in the United States.'
Volkswagen battery recycling pilot plant —
Source: Volkswagen
How the One Big Beautiful Bill Act dampens EV sales
The 30D tax credit applies to clean vehicles built in North America, with battery components sourced from North America, and which use critical minerals (such as lithium) produced, processed, or recycled in North America. A 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit incentivizes companies to build the infrastructure necessary for manufacturing, processing, or recycling batteries stateside. In tandem, these tax credits incentivized over $85 billion of capital investments in EV and hybrid assembly and battery manufacturing in the United States, putting over 100,000 Americans to work.
Without tax credits, demand for electric vehicles wanes significantly, according to Princeton. The United States is expected to manufacture between 7 million and 7.1 million electric vehicles through 2030. Currently, the demand for EVs is expected to be between 6.2 million and 8.8 million. If the bill passes, demand could drop to somewhere between 1.8 million and 4.5 million vehicles, representing a 40 percent decline— or worse. Like with batteries, EV manufacturing in the United States could grind to a halt if not reverse substantially.
EV charging port —
Source: Getty
Final thoughts
Incentives and tax breaks have attracted many consumers to electric vehicles, and this bill threatens to eliminate that. Moreover, EV charging infrastructure is driven by EV sales, so if people aren't buying new EVs, expect EV charging station providers to stand still on growing and improving their networks.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Independent
a few seconds ago
- The Independent
Firefighters work through night tackling Arthur's Seat blaze
From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging. At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story. The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it. Your support makes all the difference.
Reuters
a minute ago
- Reuters
Trump hopes China will quickly quadruple its US soybean orders
Aug 10 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he hoped China would quadruple its soybean orders from the U.S, adding that it was also "a way of substantially reducing" Beijing's trade deficit with Washington. "China is worried about its shortage of soybeans. Our great farmers produce the most robust soybeans. I hope China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders. This is also a way of substantially reducing China's Trade Deficit with the USA. Rapid service will be provided. Thank you President XI," Trump said on Truth Social. A tariff truce between Beijing and Washington is set to expire on August 12, but the Trump administration has hinted that the deadline may be extended. China, which takes more than 60% of soybeans shipped worldwide, buys the oilseed mainly from Brazil and the United States. The most active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 2.13% at $10.08 a bushel at 0446 GMT, having been little changed before Trump's post. China imported roughly 105 million metric tons of soybeans last year, just under a quarter coming from the U.S. and the remainder from Brazil. Quadrupling shipments would require China to import the bulk of its soybeans from the U.S. "It's highly unlikely that China would ever buy four times its usual volume of soybeans from the U.S.," Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting, said. It is unclear if securing China's agreement to buy more U.S. soybeans is a condition for extending the trade truce. China's Ministry of Commerce did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. The country has steadily reduced its reliance on U.S. soybeans in recent years, shifting more purchases to South America. Under the Phase One trade deal signed during Trump's first term, China agreed to boost purchases of U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans. However, Beijing ultimately fell far short of meeting those targets. This year, amid Washington–Beijing trade tensions, it has yet to buy any fourth quarter U.S. beans, fuelling concerns as the U.S. harvest export season approaches. "On Beijing's side, there have been quite a few signals that China is prepared to forego U.S. soybeans altogether this year, including booking those test cargoes of soymeal from Argentina," said Even Rogers Pay, an agricultural analyst at Trivium China. Reuters previously reported that Chinese feedmakers have purchased three Argentine soymeal cargoes as they aim to secure cheaper South American supplies amid concerns about a possible soybean supply disruption in the fourth quarter. U.S. soybean industry has been seeking alternative buyers, but no other country matches China's scale. Last year, China imported 22.13 million tons of soybeans from the U.S., and 74.65 million tons from Brazil.
Geeky Gadgets
30 minutes ago
- Geeky Gadgets
iOS 26: Apple's Riskiest Update Yet?
Apple continues to push the boundaries of mobile technology with its latest software updates, including the highly anticipated iOS 26 beta 5, public beta 2, and the stable iOS 18.6. These updates bring a mix of exciting features, performance improvements, and some challenges that users should be aware of. Whether you are an early adopter exploring beta versions or someone who values stability, understanding these updates will help you make informed decisions about your device and its capabilities. The video below from Zollotech gives us more details on what to expect from iOS 26. Watch this video on YouTube. Key Features in iOS 26 Beta 5 and Public Beta 2 The iOS 26 beta updates introduce a range of enhancements designed to improve functionality, usability, and the overall user experience. These updates reflect Apple's commitment to refining its ecosystem while addressing user feedback. Below are the standout features: AirPods Charging Case Pop-Up: A redesigned interface now provides clearer and more detailed status indicators for your AirPods, making it easier to monitor battery levels and connectivity. A redesigned interface now provides clearer and more detailed status indicators for your AirPods, making it easier to monitor battery levels and connectivity. Core App Improvements: Updates to Wallet, Fitness, Phone, and Tips apps enhance their usability, offering a more intuitive and streamlined experience for everyday tasks. Updates to Wallet, Fitness, Phone, and Tips apps enhance their usability, offering a more intuitive and streamlined experience for everyday tasks. Messages Enhancements: A bold typing indicator improves visibility during conversations, making sure you never miss when someone is responding. A bold typing indicator improves visibility during conversations, making sure you never miss when someone is responding. App Update Prioritization: Users can now prioritize specific app updates when multiple installations are in progress, allowing for greater control over download preferences. Users can now prioritize specific app updates when multiple installations are in progress, allowing for greater control over download preferences. Predictive Siri in Apple Maps: Siri now offers travel suggestions based on your habits, making navigation more efficient and personalized. Siri now offers travel suggestions based on your habits, making navigation more efficient and personalized. Redesigned Home App: Enhanced climate control interfaces improve usability for managing smart home devices, making adjustments quicker and more intuitive. Enhanced climate control interfaces improve usability for managing smart home devices, making adjustments quicker and more intuitive. CarPlay Refinements: Cleaner icon alignment and interface tweaks provide a more polished and user-friendly experience for drivers. Cleaner icon alignment and interface tweaks provide a more polished and user-friendly experience for drivers. New Visual Icons: The addition of Dolby Vision, Dolby Atmos, and Rotten Tomatoes icons offers greater clarity when browsing media content. For iPad users, iPadOS 26 beta 5 introduces a new swipe gesture for the menu bar, simplifying navigation and improving multitasking capabilities. Performance and Stability: Balancing Progress and Challenges While iOS 26 beta 5 introduces several exciting features, its performance and stability remain a mixed bag. On the positive side, users have reported improvements in thermal management, resulting in reduced overheating during intensive tasks. However, some issues persist, particularly on older devices. Key challenges include: Screen flickering on older OLED devices can disrupt the viewing experience. Stuttering on ProMotion displays affects the smoothness of animations and scrolling. Inconsistent battery life, with some users experiencing faster-than-expected battery drain. Feedback from beta testers highlights these trade-offs. While many appreciate the usability improvements and new features, others find the lingering bugs disruptive, especially for daily use. These challenges underscore the importance of weighing the benefits of early access against the potential drawbacks of beta software. iOS 18.6: A Stable and Reliable Option For users who prioritize stability and reliability, iOS 18.6 remains a dependable choice. This version has earned a reputation for solid performance, offering consistent battery life and minimal bugs. However, even this stable release is not without minor issues, such as: Notification stuttering, which occasionally affects the smooth delivery of alerts. Wallpaper darkening, a cosmetic glitch that some users have reported. Additionally, certain app-specific problems, such as those affecting YouTube, appear to be unrelated to the operating system itself. These minor inconveniences aside, iOS 18.6 is widely regarded as a reliable option for users seeking a trouble-free experience. Apple's Manufacturing and Ecosystem Updates Apple's commitment to innovation extends beyond software, as the company continues to invest heavily in manufacturing and ecosystem-wide updates. Notable developments include: Camera Sensor Production: Apple is collaborating with Samsung to produce its own camera sensors at a Texas facility, aiming to enhance camera quality and reduce reliance on third-party suppliers. Apple is collaborating with Samsung to produce its own camera sensors at a Texas facility, aiming to enhance camera quality and reduce reliance on third-party suppliers. U.S. Manufacturing Investments: The company has pledged an additional $100 billion toward domestic manufacturing, building on the $500 billion already committed. This includes partnerships with Corning to produce durable glass for iPhones and Apple Watches. Meanwhile, updates across Apple's ecosystem further enhance the user experience. Key changes include: Apple Maps: Cycling directions are now available in Taiwan and Hong Kong, expanding the app's utility for international users. Cycling directions are now available in Taiwan and Hong Kong, expanding the app's utility for international users. Dynamic Wallpaper: A new 'Here's to the Dreamers' wallpaper uses spatial scene depth for a visually engaging and immersive experience. A new 'Here's to the Dreamers' wallpaper uses spatial scene depth for a visually engaging and immersive experience. MagSafe Firmware Update: Version 2A168 improves wireless charging performance, making sure faster and more reliable charging for compatible devices. Rumors surrounding the upcoming iPhone 17 suggest additional hardware innovations, including new color options and a redesigned camera bar, further fueling anticipation for Apple's next-generation devices. AI Integration and Future Prospects Apple is also advancing its artificial intelligence capabilities with the integration of OpenAI's ChatGPT 5 into iOS 26. This enhancement aims to improve AI-driven features, offering greater accuracy and performance in tasks such as predictive text, voice commands, and personalized recommendations. However, users who prefer a more stable experience can opt to continue using GPT-4, as some have reported issues with the newer model. Looking ahead, Apple is expected to release weekly beta updates throughout August, culminating in a release candidate by late August or early September. The iPhone 17 launch event, anticipated in early September, is likely to coincide with the final rollout of iOS 26. For those eager to explore innovative features, iOS 26 beta offers a glimpse into Apple's vision for the future. However, if stability and reliability are your top priorities, iOS 18.6 remains the recommended choice. Carefully consider your needs and preferences to determine which version aligns best with your expectations. Explore further guides and articles from our vast library that you may find relevant to your interests in iOS. Source & Image Credit: zollotech Filed Under: Apple, Apple iPhone, Top News Latest Geeky Gadgets Deals Disclosure: Some of our articles include affiliate links. If you buy something through one of these links, Geeky Gadgets may earn an affiliate commission. Learn about our Disclosure Policy.
