Latest news with #REPEATProject
Auto Blog
29-05-2025
- Business
- Auto Blog
Princeton Reports that Trump's ‘Beautiful Bill' Threatens to Decimate EV Growth by 2030
EV battery production might slow to a crawl, which would kill EV sales House Republicans voted along party lines to pass Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' late last week, leaving it up to the Senate to decide if the bill passes as written. If the Senate doesn't amend the bill, the EV industry will be in deep trouble, with one analysis of the bill suggesting that sales of EVs could grind to a halt as battery production stalls. Princeton University's Zero Lab, which leads the energy and climate policy evaluation project known as the 'REPEAT Project,' recently published a comprehensive report detailing the potential impact of federal policies on the energy transition in the United States. The analysis includes electrified vehicles, and Princeton's findings are alarming. It suggests that by 2030, growth in EV battery manufacturing may be unnecessary, and sales of electric vehicles will decline by at least 40 percent. 2025 VW ID Buzz One Big Beautiful Bill Act could demolish the EV market The bill, if passed as-is, would end EV tax credits on December 31, 2025, rather than on December 31, 2032. Tax credits ending at the end of the year would likely boost EV sales through 2025 but cause long-term damage, according to Princeton. In addition to raising energy costs for the home, the bill would 'kill off the nascent clean hydrogen, CO2 management, and nuclear power sectors' as well as grind EV battery manufacturing to a halt. 'Without EV tax credits, planned battery cell manufacturing would result in large overcapacity,' it said, adding that new battery cell manufacturing expected to start in 2025 would bring U.S. battery production above 400 GWh per year, which is already above what would be needed under the bill. Currently, battery cell production in the United States stands at 130 GWh, with an additional 299 GWh expected to come online by the end of the year. By 2030, another 436 GWh of battery cell production is planned. According to Princeton's review, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act assigns the maximum capacity needed at 304 GWh. This means that at the end of the year, the United States will be overproducing by about 29 percent. Additional battery production won't even be necessary, Princeton said, noting that 29 percent overproduction is conservative, but the number could reach as high as 72 percent. While Princeton admits 'quantifying [the full impact to the EV market] is beyond the scope of this report,' it cautions two massive effects on the broader supply chain: overall demand for electric vehicle assembly and battery cell and pack manufacturing will drop sharply, and the 'loss of the battery component and critical minerals sourcing requirements enshrined in the 30D new clean vehicles tax credit would further reduce demand for battery inputs produced in the United States.' Volkswagen battery recycling pilot plant — Source: Volkswagen How the One Big Beautiful Bill Act dampens EV sales The 30D tax credit applies to clean vehicles built in North America, with battery components sourced from North America, and which use critical minerals (such as lithium) produced, processed, or recycled in North America. A 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit incentivizes companies to build the infrastructure necessary for manufacturing, processing, or recycling batteries stateside. In tandem, these tax credits incentivized over $85 billion of capital investments in EV and hybrid assembly and battery manufacturing in the United States, putting over 100,000 Americans to work. Without tax credits, demand for electric vehicles wanes significantly, according to Princeton. The United States is expected to manufacture between 7 million and 7.1 million electric vehicles through 2030. Currently, the demand for EVs is expected to be between 6.2 million and 8.8 million. If the bill passes, demand could drop to somewhere between 1.8 million and 4.5 million vehicles, representing a 40 percent decline— or worse. Like with batteries, EV manufacturing in the United States could grind to a halt if not reverse substantially. EV charging port — Source: Getty Final thoughts Incentives and tax breaks have attracted many consumers to electric vehicles, and this bill threatens to eliminate that. Moreover, EV charging infrastructure is driven by EV sales, so if people aren't buying new EVs, expect EV charging station providers to stand still on growing and improving their networks.
Miami Herald
28-05-2025
- Automotive
- Miami Herald
Princeton Reports that Trump's ‘Beautiful Bill' Threatens to Decimate EV Growth by 2030
House Republicans voted along party lines to pass Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" late last week, leaving it up to the Senate to decide if the bill passes as written. If the Senate doesn't amend the bill, the EV industry will be in deep trouble, with one analysis of the bill suggesting that sales of EVs could grind to a halt as battery production stalls. Princeton University's Zero Lab, which leads the energy and climate policy evaluation project known as the "REPEAT Project," recently published a comprehensive report detailing the potential impact of federal policies on the energy transition in the United States. The analysis includes electrified vehicles, and Princeton's findings are alarming. It suggests that by 2030, growth in EV battery manufacturing may be unnecessary, and sales of electric vehicles will decline by at least 40 percent. The bill, if passed as-is, would end EV tax credits on December 31, 2025, rather than on December 31, 2032. Tax credits ending at the end of the year would likely boost EV sales through 2025 but cause long-term damage, according to Princeton. In addition to raising energy costs for the home, the bill would "kill off the nascent clean hydrogen, CO2 management, and nuclear power sectors" as well as grind EV battery manufacturing to a halt. "Without EV tax credits, planned battery cell manufacturing would result in large overcapacity," it said, adding that new battery cell manufacturing expected to start in 2025 would bring U.S. battery production above 400 GWh per year, which is already above what would be needed under the bill. Currently, battery cell production in the United States stands at 130 GWh, with an additional 299 GWh expected to come online by the end of the year. By 2030, another 436 GWh of battery cell production is planned. According to Princeton's review, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act assigns the maximum capacity needed at 304 GWh. This means that at the end of the year, the United States will be overproducing by about 29 percent. Additional battery production won't even be necessary, Princeton said, noting that 29 percent overproduction is conservative, but the number could reach as high as 72 percent. While Princeton admits "quantifying [the full impact to the EV market] is beyond the scope of this report," it cautions two massive effects on the broader supply chain: overall demand for electric vehicle assembly and battery cell and pack manufacturing will drop sharply, and the "loss of the battery component and critical minerals sourcing requirements enshrined in the 30D new clean vehicles tax credit would further reduce demand for battery inputs produced in the United States." The 30D tax credit applies to clean vehicles built in North America, with battery components sourced from North America, and which use critical minerals (such as lithium) produced, processed, or recycled in North America. A 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit incentivizes companies to build the infrastructure necessary for manufacturing, processing, or recycling batteries stateside. In tandem, these tax credits incentivized over $85 billion of capital investments in EV and hybrid assembly and battery manufacturing in the United States, putting over 100,000 Americans to work. Without tax credits, demand for electric vehicles wanes significantly, according to Princeton. The United States is expected to manufacture between 7 million and 7.1 million electric vehicles through 2030. Currently, the demand for EVs is expected to be between 6.2 million and 8.8 million. If the bill passes, demand could drop to somewhere between 1.8 million and 4.5 million vehicles, representing a 40 percent decline- or worse. Like with batteries, EV manufacturing in the United States could grind to a halt if not reverse substantially. Incentives and tax breaks have attracted many consumers to electric vehicles, and this bill threatens to eliminate that. Moreover, EV charging infrastructure is driven by EV sales, so if people aren't buying new EVs, expect EV charging station providers to stand still on growing and improving their networks. Copyright 2025 The Arena Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Reuters
28-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Key US clean energy charts that track Trump's tax bill impact: Maguire
LITTLETON, Colorado, May 28 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill calls for drastic cuts to clean energy tax credits that have been major drivers of the boom seen in utility-scale renewable power and battery capacity over the past three years or so. The bill was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives by a narrow margin last week, but must now get approval from the U.S. Senate before becoming law. Several influential senators have raised objections to certain elements of the bill - especially proposed cuts to health care benefits - which suggests changes to the final package can be expected. But among Republican lawmakers there remains broad support for gutting Biden-era clean energy incentives, which remain at risk of a full repeal by the Republican-majority Congress. Below are some key projections on U.S. energy generation capacity, investments, fuel use and emissions if the current clean energy incentives are repealed under the new tax law. A full repeal of the Biden-era clean energy incentives would drastically reshape the country's electricity generation infrastructure landscape over the coming decade. According to the REPEAT Project - which analyses the impact of federal policies on the energy sector - total cumulative electricity generation capacity growth could fall by half between now and 2035 if current incentives are scrapped. Under the existing incentive and tax credit system, the REPEAT Project estimates that total electricity generation capacity would climb by an average of around 100 gigawatts (GW) per year from now through 2035. Existing incentives are on track to boost generation capacity from solar systems by around 46 GW/year, wind capacity by around 18 GW/year, natural gas capacity by around 14 GW/year, and battery storage capacity by around 16 GW/year. If all of the current clean energy tax credits are repealed, the pace of capacity additions would fall to around 48 GW/year, due mainly to steep declines in renewable energy and battery storage capacity construction. Under a full repeal scenario - where all existing clean energy incentives are phased out as quickly as possible - the average capacity growth of utility-scale solar systems would slow to around 19 GW/year - or less than half the current pace. Wind generation and battery storage capacity growth would also fall by roughly half, while natural gas generation capacity would drop by around 16% to around 12 GW/year. With lower tax breaks and incentives leading to a slower build-out of electricity generation capacity, the growth in total electricity supplies is also projected to slow under a full repeal scenario. Under the current incentive structure, the resulting expansion in electricity generation capacity would accommodate a roughly 30% increase in total U.S. electricity consumption by around 2035, to around 5,275 billion kilowatt hours by 2035. However, if the current incentives are repealed the resulting slower capacity expansion would limit electricity consumption growth to around 5,066 billion kilowatt hours by 2035, or 17% less than if the incentives remained in place. That shortfall in electricity consumption would in turn have a ripple effect on overall economic growth, with tighter electricity supplies triggering higher energy costs for consumers. The ditching of clean energy incentives would also alter the country's projected electricity generation mix. Under the existing incentive system, the proportion of clean energy sources within total U.S. electricity generation would rise from around 40% now to over 70% by 2035, REPEAT data shows. However, if the clean incentives are repealed, the clean power share would only rise to around 54% of the total mix by 2035, due to sharply slower clean power additions. The dropped incentives would also have a major impact on fossil fuel consumption patterns, which are currently trending broadly lower but would rise again if the Biden-era clean energy policies are scrapped. If current policies were maintained, U.S. use of thermal coal - the highest polluting fossil fuel - would drop by over 85% from current levels as other cleaner sources of power displaced coal plants. However, a full repeal of clean incentives would extend the use of coal-fired power within the U.S. energy system, and result in only a 14% decline in coal use volumes from current levels by 2035. Natural gas use by U.S. electricity producers would expand sharply if current clean power incentives are scrapped. REPEAT Project data shows that total natural gas demand could climb by nearly 30% from current levels by 2035 if clean incentives are scrapped, which compares to around an 18% rise in projected gas use if current clean incentives are maintained. U.S. greenhouse gas emissions are currently on track to decline by 28% by 2035, assuming current clean energy incentives remain in place. If those policies are repealed, however, greenhouse gas emissions would decline by only 8% by 2035, due to the resulting increased reliance on fossil fuels for power. Lower clean power incentives would in turn trigger changes to investments in the U.S. energy system, potentially wiping out billions of dollars of projected capital allocations. Lower investments in the U.S. transmission system would also trigger higher average energy costs for consumers, with annual household expenditure on energy set to climb by over $400 a year by 2035 if current policies are cut, according to REPEAT. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
Yahoo
14-03-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
Chart: EV adoption would sputter if Republicans repeal incentives
See more from Canary Media's 'Chart of the week' column. Republicans are looking to roll back key electric-vehicle incentives passed under the Biden administration. Doing so would kneecap the EV transition for years to come. Under current policies, the number of light-duty EVs sold annually is forecast to climb to 7 million by 2030, according to a new analysis from the REPEAT Project at Princeton University. But if those policies — specifically the consumer EV tax credit and tailpipe emissions rules — are repealed, that figure is forecast to be 40% lower in 2030, at around 4.2 million. Despite Detroit's pleas, the Trump administration and congressional Republicans are seeking to eliminate the $7,500 EV tax credit as well as vehicle efficiency rules that incentivize automakers to stop making gas-fueled cars. It would be a blow to a U.S. EV industry that's already coming off a year of mixed success. On the one hand, consumers bought a record number of EVs in 2024 as models from automakers other than Tesla caught on. On the other hand, sales grew by just 7% compared with the year prior — a sluggish rate compared to the nearly 50% leap that occurred in 2023 — and automakers began walking back from their EV commitments even prior to President Donald Trump's election. Should Republicans succeed in repealing the tax credits and efficiency rules, it would further slow EV adoption — and in the process destroy jobs at EV and battery factories. The REPEAT Project analysis found that eliminating these policies would threaten plans to expand U.S. EV factories and potentially lead to the cancellation or closure of half of existing EV factory capacity. The moves would have a similar effect on the burgeoning battery belt. More than 80% of announced investments in U.S. EV manufacturing are located in congressional districts represented by Republicans, according to a January report from the Environmental Defense Fund and WSP USA. Beyond the economic ramifications of the potential repeal, the climate consequences are dire. Gas-powered vehicles are one of the largest sources of planet-warming carbon emissions in the U.S.; they also cause a significant amount of smog-forming pollution that can contribute to respiratory diseases like asthma. Slowing down the transition to electric vehicles would only serve to exacerbate these problems.
