
Trump Administration Debt Strategy Is More Confusion And Uncertainty
As the Wall Street Journal reported, the administration said it would delay issuance of longer-term bonds until yields fell. The likely rationale is secondary budget control of debt expenses. Annual debt service for the U.S. is currently more expensive than any discretionary budget category, including defense spending.
'What I'm going to do is I'm going to go very short-term,' Trump had said in June, according to the Journal. 'Wait until this guy [Fed Chair Jerome Powell] gets out, get the rates way down, and then go long-term.'
The federal budget deficit is approximately $2 trillion annually. To support the deficit spending, the government must sell enough debt to cover it. The debt varies in length from far less than a month to 30-year bonds. The Treasury uses different mixes of securities to maintain the balance. Shorter-term Treasurys shorten the interest payment obligations and is usually cheaper, at least when the yield curve isn't inverted and longer-term bonds have higher yields. But shorter-term also means space for volatility and a jump in costs if inflation increases. Longer-term Treasurys allow the government to space out the debt obligations and lock in rates, but the costs are higher.
The mix typically is set and relatively consistent, so investors know what to expect. The Trump administration plans to announce on Wednesday, July 29, the mix of lengths.
'It is disingenuous to suggest this Administration is deviating from longstanding debt management practices when Treasury's auction sizes and market guidance have not changed since the last Administration,' Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender said in a written statement, the Journal noted.
But whether a Trump or Biden administration, the strategy has become to pull back from higher levels of long-term bond sales.
Bessent, a former hedge fund manager, was a regular critic of the former administration and its Treasury Secretary Yellen for holding down sales of longer-maturity Treasurys, which affect longer-term rates for house mortgages and commercial borrowing, as Bloomberg reported in February 2025.
Currently, the combination of concern about inflation, tariff uncertainty, levels of national debt, and questions about the independence of the Feb are pushing investors to demand higher yields on the 10-year.
Bessent has said that the administration wants to push down yields on longer-term Treasury debt. So far, strategies haven't delivered. That potentially increases the amount of uncertainty the country's economy has been facing.
Announcement of tariff deals would seem to help reverse the trend of confusion, but they only appear to mask it. Jorge Liboreiro, a reporter at Euronews, posted an analysis on the White House's fact-sheet about the US-EU trade deal that, as he notes, 'with claims that directly contradict the European Commission's version of events.' One example is that the White House touts a $600 billion U.S. investment 'pledge' that the EU clarifies as an 'intention,' not pledge. There is no deal on EU purchase of U.S. military equipment. There was no concession on food safety and sanitary certificates for U.S. pork and dairy products.
Such redefinitions are more examples of sweeping problems under the rug. Even if portions of the public are reassured, investors and institutions with fiscal muscle that can affect the economy are likely not.
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President Trump's statement that he hopes "China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders" would require China to import the vast majority of its soybeans from the U.S. "It's highly unlikely that China would ever buy four times its usual volume of soybeans from the US," Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting, told Reuters. Read more here. China is the world's largest soybean buyer, with nearly a quarter of those purchases coming from the US (and most of the rest coming from Brazil). President Trump's statement that he hopes "China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders" would require China to import the vast majority of its soybeans from the U.S. "It's highly unlikely that China would ever buy four times its usual volume of soybeans from the US," Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting, told Reuters. Read more here. US gold futures fall as traders await clarification on tariffs US gold futures (GC=F) in New York fell 2% as traders waited for the White House to clarify its tariff policy. Last week, the US Customs and Border agency surprised the market by ruling that 100oz and 1kg gold bars would face tariffs. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. US gold futures (GC=F) in New York fell 2% as traders waited for the White House to clarify its tariff policy. Last week, the US Customs and Border agency surprised the market by ruling that 100oz and 1kg gold bars would face tariffs. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Swiss economy seen weathering Trump's tariff shock for now Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Commentary: Tariffs are denting profits, and maybe soon your portfolio With over two-thirds of companies having reported earnings, Yahoo Finance found more than four dozen large firms saying tariffs are impacting their businesses in some material way. Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman reports: Read more here. With over two-thirds of companies having reported earnings, Yahoo Finance found more than four dozen large firms saying tariffs are impacting their businesses in some material way. Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman reports: Read more here. A 240-year-old Swiss watchmaker's race to beat Trump's tariff deadline It was a chaotic week for the 240-year-old Swiss watch manufacturer DuBois et fils, as the company rushed to ship watches before President Trump's surprise 39% tariff rate on Switzerland went into effect on Thursday. It was a race against time for DuBois CEO Thomas Steinemann and his company to ship five high-end watches to the US before blocking orders on its US website. 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The move threatens trade from Switzerland and other major refining centers. US Customs and Border Protection confirmed that these gold bars are now subject to tariffs, contradicting earlier industry expectations. The Financial Times first reported this change. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. The US has imposed tariffs on imports of 1kg and 100oz gold bars, unleashing fresh turmoil in the global bullion market. The move threatens trade from Switzerland and other major refining centers. US Customs and Border Protection confirmed that these gold bars are now subject to tariffs, contradicting earlier industry expectations. The Financial Times first reported this change. Bloomberg reports: Read more here.
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17 minutes ago
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