Is LMT Stock A Good Defense Pick Amid Israel-Iran Tensions?

Forbes

17 hours ago

CANADA - 2025/02/08: In this photo illustration, the Lockheed Martin Corporation logo is seen ... More displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
Defense stocks, especially Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), are in the spotlight following the recent assault by Israel on Iran's nuclear initiative. As the primary missile supplier to the U.S. government, Lockheed Martin holds a crucial position. It is noteworthy that 20,000 missiles intended for Ukraine were recently redirected to Israel, as stated by the Ukrainian president. Lockheed Martin has come under scrutiny recently after reports revealed that the Pentagon has drastically cut its request for Air Force F-35s by half. This situation emphasizes potential changes in defense budget allocations and procurement practices.
While Lockheed Martin offers an appealing valuation that may attract value investors in the defense industry, it also reveals various operational and financial vulnerabilities that pose inherent risks. Despite these issues, the stock's reasonable pricing in relation to its fundamentals and its proven resilience in market downturns indicate possible upside for those investors with a higher risk tolerance. However, for those aiming for less volatility than single stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio serves as an option — having outperformed the S&P 500 and yielding returns above 91% since its launch. In a different context, see – Boeing Stock Faces Fresh Crisis After 787 Dreamliner Crash.
Relative to the broader S&P 500, Lockheed Martin's stock is notably priced favorably across various valuation metrics. Its price-to-sales ratio of 1.6 is significantly lower than the S&P 500's 3.0, suggesting that investors are paying much less for every dollar of Lockheed Martin's revenue. This discount also applies to cash flow, as LMT's price-to-free cash flow ratio of 16.6 compares favorably to the S&P 500's 20.5. Likewise, its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.3 indicates a significant discount compared to the S&P 500's 26.4.
These favorable valuation indicators suggest that the market has possibly already taken into account many of the company's operational obstacles, which could present an opportunity for investors who feel that the current negativity is exaggerated or that improvements are on the horizon.
Lockheed Martin's revenue growth reflects a somewhat mixed yet stable trend. In the last three years, the company achieved an average annual revenue growth rate of 3.0%. Although modest, this consistency is notable considering the challenging environment in defense contracting, and it lags behind the S&P 500's average of 5.5%, indicative of the defense industry's mature nature and the cyclicality of government spending.
In more recent times, performance has shown signs of progress. Revenue increased by 3.1% over the past twelve months, rising from $70 billion to $72 billion. The latest quarter displayed accelerating momentum, with revenue increasing by 4.5% year-over-year to $18 billion, closely approaching the S&P 500's quarterly growth rate of 4.8%. This recent growth suggests that Lockheed Martin is preserving its competitive stance in key defense markets, despite overall growth remaining moderate.
Concerns about profitability represent the most significant risk factor for potential investors. Lockheed Martin's operating margin of 10.3% falls short of the S&P 500 average of 13.2%, reflecting difficulties in converting revenue into operational profits. This weakness is evident throughout the income statement, as the company generated $7.4 billion in operating income from its $72 billion revenue base.
Cash flow metrics further emphasize these profitability challenges. The company's operating cash flow margin of 9.4% significantly underperforms the S&P 500's average of 14.9%, leading to $6.7 billion in total operating cash flow over the past four quarters. At the net income level, margins of 7.7% are unfavorably compared to the S&P 500's 11.6%, resulting in net income of $5.5 billion.
These margin pressures likely arise from the competitive nature of defense contracting, possible cost overruns on complex programs, and the difficulties associated with managing extensive, multi-year projects that feature fixed-price components.
Lockheed Martin's balance sheet offers a mixed view of financial stability. On the positive side, the company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 18.2%, which is slightly better than the S&P 500 average of 19.9%. With $20 billion in debt against a market capitalization of $110 billion, the company's leverage appears manageable, providing financial flexibility for its operations and investments.
However, the company's liquidity position raises some concerns. Cash and cash equivalents total merely $1.8 billion out of $57 billion in total assets, resulting in a cash-to-assets ratio of only 3.2%. This figure is significantly lower than the S&P 500 average of 13.8%, indicating a limited financial buffer for unexpected challenges or opportunities that require immediate capital allocation.
One of Lockheed Martin's key strengths is its ability to withstand market downturns, adding a defensive element to investment portfolios. During the inflation shock of 2022, LMT stock fell by 20.8% from its peak to its trough, better than the S&P 500's decline of 25.4%. The stock showed strong recovery potential, regaining its pre-crisis levels by July 2024 and subsequently reaching new highs of $614.61 in October 2024.
Although its defensive characteristics were less apparent during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, where it experienced a 37.1% decline compared to the S&P 500's 33.9%, it still managed to recover to pre-crisis levels by March 2022, demonstrating medium-term resilience. During the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, LMT performed slightly better than the overall market, with a decline of 51.4% versus the S&P 500's 56.8%; however, recovery was delayed, reaching pre-crisis levels by July 2013.
A thorough analysis of Lockheed Martin indicates a company facing significant operational challenges but balanced by attractive valuation metrics and defensive qualities. While weak profitability and limited cash flow present serious risks that investors must diligently consider, these concerns seem to be incorporated into the stock's current valuation, which trades at substantial discounts across various measures.
This analysis favors a contrarian investment approach. Investors contemplating LMT should regard it as a value-oriented investment with inherent volatility, appropriate for portfolios that can accommodate near-term uncertainty. The possibility for long-term appreciation exists as the company addresses its operational hurdles and benefits from ongoing defense spending patterns. We assess Lockheed Martin's Valuationto be $520 per share, indicating over 10% upside potential from the current levels.
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