Latest news with #SOPAImages
Forbes
10 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
Buy, Sell, Or Hold PFE Stock At $23?
CANADA - 2025/04/03: In this photo illustration, the Pfizer logo is seen displayed on a smartphone ... More screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) stock is down around 25% from its 52-week high of over $31 to $23 now. Pipeline setbacks, including an experimental treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) failing in a late-stage trial, and concerns about management's decisions on R&D spending and acquisitions have weighed on Pfizer's stock lately. Despite recent declines, we believe Pfizer stock is a compelling buy right now, with its current price of around $23 likely reflecting existing concerns. Our optimism stems from a comprehensive analysis comparing Pfizer's current valuation to its recent operational performance and historical financial health. While our assessment across key metrics like Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience indicates a weak operating performance and financial condition for the company, these factors appear to be already "priced in" to the stock. We'll detail these aspects below. However, for investors who seek lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative - having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Separately, see – Is Merck Stock About To Crash? Going by what you pay per dollar of sales or profit, PFE stock looks slightly cheap compared to the broader market. Pfizer's Revenues have declined marginally over recent years. Pfizer's profit margins are around the median level for companies in the Trefis coverage universe. Pfizer's balance sheet looks weak. PFE stock has fared worse than the benchmark S&P 500 index during some of the recent downturns. Worried about the impact of a market crash on PFE stock? Our dashboard How Low Can Pfizer Stock Go In A Market Crash? has a detailed analysis of how the stock performed during and after previous market crashes. In summary, Pfizer's performance across the parameters detailed above are as follows: Pfizer's stock has certainly seen better days, largely due to the steep decline in demand for its COVID-19 products. While the Seagen acquisition is starting to contribute positively to sales and earnings, it hasn't been enough to offset the significant revenue loss from its COVID-19 vaccine and treatment. However, we believe this downturn is already priced into Pfizer's stock. The company is currently trading at significantly lower valuation ratios than it has in recent years, which suggests that the market to a large extent has accounted for these challenges. Looking ahead, there are several promising aspects for Pfizer. The company boasts a robust pipeline, particularly in oncology, with several potential blockbuster drugs like Sasanlimab and Vepdegestrant poised to boost future revenues. Additionally, Vyndaqel has seen impressive market share gains, with its sales surging 2.7 times between 2021 and 2024 to reach $5.4 billion. Other new drugs, such as Padcev and Adcetris, are also performing well. Considering Pfizer's current low valuation and these future growth drivers, we think PFE stock is a good buy. That said, investors should always consider the risks; our analysis shows that Pfizer's stock has historically underperformed the broader markets during times of crisis. Now, while PFE stock looks promising, investing in a single stock can be risky. On the other hand, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Forbes
11 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
MDB Stock: How Will MongoDB React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
CANADA - 2025/03/07: In this photo illustration, the MongoDB logo is seen displayed on a smartphone ... More screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB) a database management company, is scheduled to report its earnings on Wednesday, June 4, 2025. Historically, MDB stock has reacted negatively to earnings announcements, with a one-day decline in 55% of instances over the past five years. The median drop has been 10%, with a maximum single-day loss of 26.9%. For event-driven traders, understanding these historical patterns can be advantageous. There are two primary strategies: either position yourself before the earnings release based on historical odds, or analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the release to inform your subsequent moves. Consensus estimates project earnings of $0.66 per share on revenues of $527.5 million. This compares to $0.51 per share on sales of $450.6 million in the year-ago quarter. Fundamentally, MongoDB has a current market capitalization of $15 billion, with $2.0 billion in revenue over the last twelve months. However, the company reported an operating loss of $216 million and a net loss of $129 million during the same period. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative - having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Separately, see – Merck Stock's Ticking Keytruda Time earnings reaction history of all stocks Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below. MDB 1D, 5D, and 21D Post-Earnings Return A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves "long" for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns. MDB Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like MongoDB, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.
Forbes
12 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
Can Dollar Tree Deliver In Its Next Earnings?
BLOOMSBURG, PENNSYLVANIA, UNITED STATES - 2025/06/01: An exterior view of a Dollar Tree store at the ... More Buckhorn Plaza. (Photo by Paul Weaver/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Dollar Tree's stock (NASDAQ: DLTR) is set to announce its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, June 4, 2025, with analysts estimating earnings of $1.20 per share on $4.53 billion in revenue. This would indicate a 13% year-over-year drop in earnings and a 41% decrease in sales compared to the previous year's figures of $1.38 per share and $7.63 billion in revenue. Historically, DLTR stock has fallen 53% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median one-day decline of 11.1% and a maximum observed drop of 22%. Dollar Tree, traditionally dependent on lower- and middle-income consumers, is now drawing in more affluent shoppers amidst ongoing inflation. Its discretionary products and urban clientele with slightly higher income levels offer stability. Nonetheless, the company is still susceptible to new tariffs, which it seeks to alleviate through supplier negotiations, manufacturing adjustments, and selective price hikes. The current market capitalization of the company stands at $19 billion. Over the past twelve months, revenue reached $18 billion, and it maintained operational profitability with $1.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of $-3.0 billion. Buy or Sell Dollar Tree Stock? For traders focused on events, historical trends may provide an advantage, whether by preparing before earnings or responding to movements after the announcement. Thus, if you are looking for growth with less volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns exceeding 91% since its launch. See earnings reaction history of all stocks. A few observations regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: Additional statistics for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings are summarized along with the data in the table below. DLTR 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return A relatively lower-risk approach (though ineffective if the correlation is low) is to comprehend the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify a pair with the strongest correlation, and take the right trade action. For instance, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can place themselves 'long' for the ensuing 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation information drawn from 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D indicates the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and following 5D returns. DLTR Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns Occasionally, peer performance can impact post-earnings stock reactions. In fact, the pricing-in may commence even before the earnings are declared. Here is some historical data regarding the past post-earnings performance of Dollar Tree stock compared to the stock performance of peers that reported earnings shortly before Dollar Tree. For a fair assessment, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns. DLTR Correlation with Peer Earnings Discover more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all three, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), achieving strong returns for investors.
Forbes
a day ago
- Business
- Forbes
Merck Stock's Ticking Keytruda Time Bomb
INDIA - 2025/05/20: In this photo illustration, a MERCK logo is seen displayed on a smartphone and ... More in the background. (Photo Illustration by Avishek Das/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Merck's (NYSE:MRK) top-selling drug – Keytruda's – impressive recent growth tells a compelling story, but it's one with a predictable ending. The pharmaceutical giant's remarkable performance is largely attributed to the phenomenal success of Keytruda, its blockbuster oncology drug. However, beneath this success lies a growing concern: the sustainability of this growth trajectory, particularly as competition intensifies in the oncology space. Keytruda has been nothing short of a financial juggernaut for Merck. Sales have skyrocketed an astounding 72% from $17 billion in 2021 to $29 billion last year, single-handedly driving Merck's double-digit average revenue growth over the past three years. The drug now accounts for a substantial 46% of the company's total revenues. That's big. Nearly half of the company's sales comes from a single drug—a level of dependency that would make any investor pause. It's precisely why sector diversification is a key factor we consider for our High Quality (HQ) portfolio. This strategic focus on ensuring a healthy mix of companies across sectors has enabled the HQ portfolio to outperform the S&P 500, achieving returns greater than 91% since its inception. Separately, see – Buy, Sell, or Hold HIMS Stock? There's no guessing about Keytruda's future trajectory: its U.S. market exclusivity ends in 2028, leading to inevitable biosimilar competition. This isn't speculation—it's a certainty that will fundamentally reshape Merck's financial landscape. The larger a drug's sales, the more challenging it becomes for a company to offset the revenue gap once its patent expires. Our estimates suggest Keytruda's sales will peak around $36 billion by 2028, but could these annual sales fall to $20 billion or even under $15 billion within the next four to five years? It's highly probable. Make no mistake: sales fall sharply when a biosimilar enters the market. The pharmaceutical industry provides stark examples of this disruptive force. AbbVie's Humira, another former blockbuster, lost nearly 60% of its sales in just a couple of years, plummeting from a peak of $21 billion in 2022 to under $9 billion last year. Similarly, Roche's Herceptin lost its market exclusivity in the U.S. in 2019 and saw its sales plunge from $7 billion in 2018 to $3.7 billion in 2020. These examples demonstrate the powerful and predictable impact of biosimilar competition—a reality that Merck will soon face. Can Merck maintain sales growth when its biggest drug's sales are projected to decline significantly? Currently, the answer is "unlikely." While the pharmaceutical landscape can change rapidly with strategic acquisitions or licensing deals for promising drugs, the fundamental challenge remains: Merck's Keytruda-fueled growth story is set to slow, and that shift will likely occur around 2028. When this period of high growth ends, Merck's valuation is expected to drop significantly. In fact, to some extent, investors have already started to account for this reality, as evidenced by a 40% decline in MRK stock over the last twelve months. Of course, other factors are also fueling this decline, primarily the drop in Gardasil sales—Merck's second best-selling drug—due to slowing demand in China. The company faces the daunting task of either finding replacement revenue streams in the next three years or accepting a new reality of slower, or even falling, sales. This scenario underscores the importance of building a resilient investment portfolio that balances risk and reward. Merck's situation serves as a reminder that even the most successful pharmaceutical companies face inevitable patent cliffs that can dramatically alter their growth trajectories. The Keytruda dependency represents both Merck's greatest current strength and its most significant near-term vulnerability. Investors must weigh the company's current robust performance against the certainty of coming challenges, making diversification across multiple stocks crucial for managing this type of concentrated risk. Our Trefis High Quality (HQ) portfolio exemplifies this approach, having significantly outperformed the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000, clocking in over 91% returns since inception. Balancing risk and reward is precisely why diversifying across multiple stocks is crucial.
Forbes
2 days ago
- General
- Forbes
Google's 7-Day Gmail Account Hack Warning — Act Now
Google's 7-day Gmail account hack warning. SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Hackers armed with the latest AI tools have turned their attention to your Gmail account, and for good reason, as gaining control of this provides them with a treasure trove of valuable data and ongoing access. Google has confirmed that responding within seven days is pivotal to retaining the keys to your email kingdom. Here's what you need to know and do. I have been reporting about the increasingly sophisticated threats facing users of the world's most popular email platform for months now. The pivotal moment for Gmail attacks occurred when the most convincing AI-driven hacking campaign so nearly succeeded in fooling a cybersecurity consultant at the end of 2024. Despite the best efforts of Google, these attacks have continued and are still ongoing. The latest to come to my attention is all too familiar, apart from the fact that the target is Adam Mosseri, the head of Instagram. Mosseri explained that the attack started with a phone call pertaining to be from Google support, moved to an email sent from a noreply@ address and claimed his account had been compromised and a password change was required immediately. This is similar to so many attacks that I have reported on across the course of the last year: 1, 2, 3. The mitigations are equally similar across the attack surface, and I advise you start here. and continue here. In the case of Mosseri, a Google spokesperson said that it has suspended the Google form and the site in question, and reminded users that 'Google will never call you about your account.' But what if it's too late? What if the attackers have compromised your account, changed your password, 2FA protections and even your recovery email and telephone numbers? Do not panic, Google can help, but you do need to act fast. The tactics used by these attackers are not unique to Gmail, all email platforms, all online services for that matter, are at risk of the same kind of account takeover threats. Gmail, however, is a bit like Windows when it comes to the hack attack threat: it's very high profile and used by billions people. In other words, it's a hacker magnet. The Google spokesman confirmed that situations where attackers both compromise an account and change passwords etc to prevent the real owner from logging in do happen. Another good reason to always use the latest phishing-resistant authentication technology, a passkey, rather than wait for an attacker to use theirs to lock down your account. 'We recommend all users to set up a recovery phone as well as a recovery email on their account,' Google said, 'these can be used in cases where users forget their own passwords, or an attacker changes the credentials after hijacking the account.' Importantly, the original Google account holder has a seven-day period in which they can use the original recovery details to regain account control from the attacker. A recovery phone number is analogous to seatbelt use in your car; it enhances your ability to recover fully after a hack, just as a seatbelt enhances your chances of survival in a crash. When your recovery information is changed, Google told me, you can still use your existing email or phone number for seven days to receive account recovery sign-in codes. So, what are you waiting for? Add those recovery details now and be prepared in case the worst happens and a sophisticated hacker takes control of your Gmail account. Unlike if you ignore this advice, you have nothing to lose.
