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New York Post
3 hours ago
- Business
- New York Post
US importers bear brunt of Trump tariffs with higher consumer prices ‘in the pipeline': Deutsche Bank
US importers, not the foreign-based exporters who are shipping them goods from overseas, are shouldering the cost of President Trump's tariffs — and higher prices for US shoppers are 'in the pipeline,' according to Deutsche Bank. In a research note, analysts at the German financial giant contradicted the White House's assertions that foreign exporters abroad are on the hook for Trump's trade taxes, which have reeled in more than $100 billion in tariff revenue so far this year The White House disputed the analysts' assertions on Wednesday. The analysts examined US import prices for manufactured goods during the second quarter, when the tariffs were implemented. The bank said the behavior of import prices helps reveal who is actually paying the duties. 'If foreigners were paying for the tariffs, we would expect to see a sharp reduction in the price of imported goods as they absorbed it into their own margins,' the bank wrote. 4 Analysts at Deutsche Bank say that US consumers should brace for higher prices as a result of President Trump's tariff policies. Davide Bonaldo/SOPA Images/Shutterstock Instead, the data show only 'mild price reductions,' mainly from Canada and, to a lesser extent, the UK. In China's case, where average tariff rates rose more than 30%, dollar import prices dropped by just 1%, said the bank. 'To be sure, there are specific industry examples of a greater impact,' Deutsche Bank acknowledged. 'For now, however, the top-down macro evidence seems clear: Americans are mostly paying for the tariffs.' Since consumer price gains have remained relatively contained, the analysts said it suggests US importers are absorbing the costs in the form of squeezed profit margins rather than passing them on to consumers. 4 'The top-down macro evidence seems clear: Americans are mostly paying for the tariffs,' according to analysts at Deutsche Bank. Getty Images Deutsche Bank drew three conclusions: first, exporters abroad 'are not yet feeling much pain from the tariffs,' which could strengthen their bargaining power ahead of the Aug. 1 trade deadline. Second, there may be 'more pressure on US consumer prices in the pipeline.' Third, because the economic cost is falling more heavily on the US, the situation adds 'an added dollar negative' to the broader macroeconomic outlook. White House spokesman Kush Desai panned the Deutsche Bank analysis, pointing to a White House analysis that the administration says is proof that 'prices of imported goods have actually fallen this year despite President Trump's historic tariffs.' 'The Administration has consistently maintained that the cost of tariffs will be borne by foreign exporters who rely on access to the American economy, the world's biggest and best consumer market,' Desai told The Post. 4 Since Trump rolled out his 'Liberation Day' tariffs, the US has raked in $64 billion in customs duties, according to data. Getty Images Trump's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) found that imported goods prices have fallen this year and declined faster than overall goods prices since February — 'contradict[ing] claims that tariffs or tariff‑fears would lead to an acceleration of inflation' — a pattern the CEA says holds across core goods, durables and nondurables. From December 2024 through May 2025, overall PCE goods prices rose 0.4% (about a 1% annualized pace) while the imported component fell 0.1%, according to CEA data. A similar breakdown of consumer price index data shows imported goods deflated 0.8% while aggregate CPI goods were flat. When services are stripped out, the CEA finds outright import‑goods deflation beginning in March. CEA also noted that lower energy prices — more heavily weighted in the import basket — help explain the gap but that imported core goods still rose less than overall core. The White House analysis concludes tariffs are 'not a first‑order consideration for inflation' and have 'not reduced the disinflationary impulse from imported goods' through May. 4 Honda vehicles are lined up at a vehicle storage yard at an industrial port near Tokyo as car companies say they have seen profits dip as a result of tariffs. REUTERS Last week, the Financial Times reported that the Trump administration raked in $64 billion in customs duties during the second quarter of this year which ended in late June. The three-month period began when Trump rolled out his 'Liberation Day' tariffs that included a universal 10% levy on imports from most nations in addition to higher duties on certain sectors such as steel and foreign cars. Domestic automakers have indicated that tariffs are eating into their profits. General Motors, the Detroit-based producer of iconic brands such as Cadillac and Buick, told investors this week that Trump's trade policies have cost the company $1.1 billion in the most recent quarter. Stellantis, the Netherlands-based parent of US brands Ram and Jeep, said Monday that it lost $350 million as a result of Trump's tariff policies. Other multinationals such as Texas Instruments, ASM International, AMD and Best Buy — companies that are vulnerable to tariffs due to their reliance on key commodities such as steel, aluminum and semiconductors — have all cited tariffs as one of the reasons behind weakening demand and lower profits. Meanwhile, the latest inflation figures indicate that consumers are starting to feel the pinch of tariffs. The headline inflation figure rose 2.7% year over year in June, up from 2.4% in May, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices climbed month-over-month by 0.3% — the largest monthly gain since January after a 0.1% increase in May. Headline inflation has now risen for a second straight month after a period of steady decline earlier this year.
Forbes
9 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
How Will VeriSign Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Image VeriSign (NASDAQ:VRSN) is set to announce its earnings on Thursday, July 24, 2025. Over the last five years, VRSN stock has displayed an equal division in one-day returns following earnings announcements. The stock achieved a positive one-day return in 50% of cases, with a median increase of 2.9%. In contrast, it experienced a negative one-day return in the remaining 50% of cases, with a median drop of -2.7%. While the actual results compared to consensus estimates will be essential, grasping these historical trends can offer an advantage for traders focused on events. There are two main strategies to utilize this information: Analysts anticipate earnings of $2.20 per share on revenue of $410 million for the upcoming quarter. This would mark an increase compared to the earnings from the same quarter last year, which were $2.01 per share on sales of $387 million. From a fundamental viewpoint, VeriSign currently has a market capitalization of $27 billion. Over the past twelve months, the company generated $1.6 billion in revenue, with operating earnings of $1.1 billion and a net income of $791 million, demonstrating strong operational profitability. However, if you are looking for upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and achieved returns exceeding 91% since its launch. Also, take a look at – What's Happening With PepsiCo Stock? View earnings reaction history of all stocks Historical Probability of Positive Post-Earnings Returns for VeriSign Here are some insights into one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: Additional information regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below. 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings Correlation Among 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns A relatively lower-risk strategy (although not beneficial if the correlation is weak) involves understanding the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identifying pairs that exhibit the strongest correlation, and executing the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves 'long' for the following 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on the 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns. Correlation Among 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns Discover more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all 3: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering substantial returns for investors. Additionally, if you want upside with a smoother experience than an individual stock like VeriSign, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and recorded >91% returns since its inception.
Forbes
a day ago
- Business
- Forbes
Meme Stocks Are Back And Retail Is About To Get Burned Again
CHINA - 2023/08/31: In this photo illustration, the Reddit logo is displayed in the Apple App Store ... More on an iPhone. (Photo Illustration by Sheldon Cooper/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) They're back. It's not the businesses making a comeback; it's the same reckless behavior wrapped in new tickers. Meme stocks are ripping on no news, no turnaround, just vibes, and short interest déjà vu from 2021. Kohl's surged nearly 40%, not because of earnings, not because of strategy, but because some folks online decided it should. That's all it takes now. Retail's lit again. But scroll the forums, and it's all heat, no floor, no fundamentals. If this feels familiar, it should. GameStop. AMC. Bed Bath & Beyond. We've seen how this plays out. The move looks smart, until it isn't. And the fall is usually as sharp as the rise. But this isn't about Kohl's. It's not even about stocks. It's about memory. Or lack of it. The meme resurgence tells us less about opportunity and more about the refusal to learn. Investors aren't just repeating a trade; they're repeating a mistake. This isn't a rerun of a trade. It's a rerun of a train wreck and if you know where to look, the signs are everywhere. What Meme Stocks Did To Retail Last Time We don't need to guess how this plays out. We've already lived it. Back in August 2023, I laid it bare in Why You're Almost Guaranteed to Lose Money Trading GameStop, AMC & Other Meme Stocks. The pattern was clear: online hype caught fire, retail flooded in late, and institutional money used the wave to cash out. Social chatter turned into FOMO flows. Stocks surged. Then came the rug pull. Most retail traders weren't early; they were ammunition. They bought the highs and sold the pain. Meanwhile, professionals, armed with liquidity and exit plans, let the frenzy work for them. GameStop soared above $480 at its peak. Today, it trades under $30. AMC touched $72. It now limps below $5. That's not 'hold the line' loyalty. That's capital destruction. And yet, with the same names trending again, the crowd looks ready to walk into the fire a second time. The Real Lessons From The Meme Stock Bubble The meme stock bubble wasn't just a wild moment—it was a classroom. And in my January 2024 piece, What We Learned From The Stock Market Meme Bubble, the takeaways were clear. First: narrative is not strategy. A good story might move price in the short term, but it doesn't anchor value. Second: short interest, while flashy, is not a catalyst. It's a setup, not a reason to buy. Third, and maybe most crucial: community isn't capital. Online unity might create a movement, but it doesn't replace liquidity or discipline. And finally, behavioral traps ruled the day, confirmation bias, herd mentality, and the illusion of control all played leading roles. As I wrote then: 'Retail got a taste of power—and then a dose of reality.' The lessons were there in plain sight. Anyone willing to step back from the noise could see the cracks forming. But in every mania, reason is the first casualty. And now, as the same trades cycle back into fashion, we're finding out just how few people were paying attention. AMC What's Happening Now We're seeing the signs again. This time it's Kohl's. The stock jumped nearly 40% in a single session on absolutely nothing. No earnings release. No new strategic plan. No operational inflection. Just movement. And in 2024, that's all it takes to light up Reddit threads and X timelines with déjà vu-level energy: 'Squeeze coming.' 'Institutions are scared.' 'This is the next GameStop.' According to Barron's, it's meme traders driving the action, again using short interest as a battle cry, not a risk signal. And that's the issue. The crowd sees a high short float and mistakes it for an opportunity, not a warning. The irony? The very setup they're piling into is the one institution are often waiting to sell into. What's changed since 2021? Not much, except now there's no stimulus check liquidity, no novelty in zero commissions, and far less of a surprise factor. What's left? Noise with no fuel. Urgency built on fumes. As I warned in my May 2024 piece, The Risk Of Losing Big On GameStop And Other Meme Stocks: 'Retail investors often confuse movement with meaning. Just because a stock moves doesn't mean it's moving for you.' This time may look familiar, but the backdrop is very different. And when the music stops, it won't be the short sellers left standing without a chair. The Psychology Driving Meme Stock FOMO This latest meme stock wave isn't driven by analysis; it's driven by psychology. Recency bias leads traders to believe that because a squeeze happened once, it will happen again. Survivorship bias keeps them focused on the few who struck it rich last time, not the thousands who got burned. Add in community bias where being part of the crowd feels like validation and you've got a cocktail for poor decision-making. What's really fueling this is social reinforcement. TikTok clips showing fake P&L gains. X posts hyping charts with no context. The illusion of credibility from anonymous accounts shouting conviction. It's all theater. And with every like, share, and comment, that group think spreads. What's missing? Due diligence. Valuation. Anything resembling a thesis beyond 'shorts will cover.' This isn't investing. It's a TikTok trend with margin calls. The danger isn't just that these trades unravel. It's that the behavior behind them keeps getting rewarded by attention, not outcome. And when the feedback loop breaks, the fallout is real. The Structural Problem Even when meme stocks spike, most traders don't win. The reason isn't just timing; it's structure. Liquidity vanishes at the top. Platforms freeze. Bid-ask spreads widen. Right when you should sell, conviction freezes. Hesitation takes over. Emotion takes over. No plan, no discipline, just the hope it'll go higher. Nail the entry? Great. Now try getting out before the bid vanishes. These trades sell the illusion of repeatability. But the structure doesn't support the outcome. Most retail investors are playing a game where the rules shift mid-trade. The system isn't built for fast exits or disciplined decision-making at scale. And that's the catch: meme stocks promise outsized gains but offer little in terms of practical execution. By the time you hear the alarm, the exits are already jammed. That's the meme stock playbook. It's hard to win when the game isn't designed for you to leave with chips. What's Next For Meme Stocks: A Familiar Trap We've seen this script before and it doesn't end well. Here's what's likely next. One or two meme names pop, and Kohl's is already on that path. Maybe Bed Bath & Beyond will return from the dead via some illiquid microcaps. Social media does the rest. Reddit threads light up. TikTok gets flooded with charts and rocket emojis. 'The squeeze is on.' Retail starts piling in. FOMO kicks in hard. Flows accelerate. Then the air starts thinning. Liquidity evaporates. The same volatility that attracted traders begins to repel them. Without fundamentals or fresh capital, prices collapse under their own weight. Retail holds the bag, again. The difference this time? The players who won last time weren't even on the field. Institutions aren't surprised. Market makers are prepared. There's no novelty here, just a rerun. But it's a rerun with worse odds. No stimulus tailwind. No surprise factor. No second wave of liquidity. This isn't momentum. It's old muscle twitching in a dead trade. And those hoping for a different ending are ignoring the script. The Meme Stock Sequel Will End the Same Way Meme stocks aren't back because the fundamentals changed. They're back because memory faded and the crowd got bored. That's not opportunity; it's risk in disguise. In any greater fool game, the last one is the one who loses most. So, take this as a warning, not a headline to chase. Just because stocks are moving doesn't mean they're moving toward profit. Ask anyone who is still holding AMC. You've seen this movie before, and the ending didn't change. And like every sequel, this one's got the same ending, just fewer people left to cheer.
Forbes
a day ago
- Business
- Forbes
How Will CSX Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images CSX (NASDAQ:CSX) is set to release its earnings on Wednesday, July 23, 2025. Historically, CSX has recorded a positive one-day return in 65% of cases following its earnings announcements over the previous five years. The median positive return on these occasions was 2.6%, with a peak one-day positive return of 4.3%. For traders focusing on events, recognizing these historical trends can offer a strategic edge, although actual outcomes relative to consensus estimates will be a key factor. There are two primary strategies to consider: The current consensus forecasts for CSX's upcoming earnings report are $0.41 per share on revenue of $3.57 billion. This is compared to earnings of $0.49 per share on revenue of $3.7 billion in the same quarter from the previous year. From a fundamental standpoint, CSX has a current market capitalization of $65 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company reported revenues of $14 billion, with $5.1 billion in operating income and a net profit of $3.2 billion. That said, if you are looking for upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks CSX's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return Additional data regarding observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below. 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns A relatively lower risk strategy (though ineffective if the correlation is minimal) is to comprehend the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and conduct the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the strongest correlation, a trader can position themselves "long" for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on both 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D references the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns. Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns Discover more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all three, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), yielding strong returns for investors. Additionally, if you desire upside with a smoother experience than an individual stock like CSX, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and achieved returns greater than 91% since its inception. Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios See all Trefis Price Estimates
Forbes
a day ago
- Business
- Forbes
Will Nasdaq Stock Move On Its Approachinging Earnings?
Photo Illustration by Omar Marques/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Nasdaq (NASDAQ:NDAQ) is expected to release its earnings on Thursday, July 24, 2025, covering a quarter that experienced a surge in both the Nasdaq 100 index and U.S. stocks, reaching new all-time high levels. Revenues are anticipated to increase by approximately 9% year-over-year to $1.26 billion, while earnings are forecasted to be around $0.79 per share, reflecting an increase of about $0.10 compared to the same time last year. Several factors have been affecting the company's performance in recent months, such as heightened demand for technology and data solutions, as well as a greater proportion of recurring and software-based sales driven by a transition to subscription models. Furthermore, the exchange has been observing strong interest in Nasdaq-linked index products, which may enhance trading volume and fee company possesses a current market capitalization of $51 billion. Over the past twelve months, it generated revenue of $7.8 billion and achieved operational profitability with $2.1 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.3 billion. While much will rely on how the outcomes compare to consensus and expectations, recognizing historical trends could potentially give an advantage if you are an event-driven trader. There are two methods to achieve this: comprehend the historical odds and position yourself before the earnings release, or analyze the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns following the earnings announcement and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are disclosed. That being said, if you are looking for growth with reduced volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and yielded returns surpassing 91% since its launch. See earnings reaction history of all stocks Nasdaq's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: Additional information regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is summarized alongside the statistics in the table provided below. 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns A relatively less risky approach (though not beneficial if the correlation is weak) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair that exhibits the strongest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves as 'long' for the subsequent 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on both 5-year and 3-year (more recent) historical trends. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns. Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings? Occasionally, the performance of peers can affect the stock's reaction following earnings. In fact, the pricing-in may commence prior to the earnings announcement. Below is some historical data regarding the past post-earnings performance of Nasdaq stock in comparison to the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Nasdaq. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) returns. Correlation With Peer Earnings Discover more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (comprising all 3: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000) to deliver strong returns for investors. Additionally, if you're seeking growth with a steadier ride than an individual stock like Nasdaq, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has surpassed the S&P and achieved returns greater than 91% since its inception. Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios See all Trefis Price Estimates
